It is finally the last week of the College Football regular season. It’s a bittersweet ending because once the regular season ends, we will have conference championships, bowl games, and the College Football Playoff.
For Week 13, we have a large card on Black Friday, and on Saturday as well.
Below, read up on my best college football bets.
All college football odds are current as of noon ET on Tuesday, Nov. 22, at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 81-84-4, -2.4% Return on Investment, +2.8% Closing Line Value
CFB Week 13 Best Bet: Arkansas vs. Missouri
Arkansas -3 (-110) at BetMGM
WAGER: 2 Units
The Arkansas/Missouri rivalry goes back to when both teams played in the Southwest Conference.
This weekend, Missouri has a chance to make a bowl game this year if they can beat Arkansas as a +3 home underdog. Arkansas with a 6-5 record has already qualified for a bowl game.
Despite Mizzou needing to win, and Arkansas not needing to win, Arkansas should easily win.
Outside of Oklahoma, Arkansas is arguably the biggest disappointment this season. They had a strong year last year, but due to injuries and underperformance, they are merely a .500-level team this year.
Even with the Razorbacks underperforming this year, they should be fine against the Tigers.
Missouri, under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, is arguably the worst-coached Power 5 team. They were about to beat Auburn on a game-ending field goal and then lost in overtime.
In a blowout loss to Tennessee two weeks ago, Drinkwitz left his starters into the game all the way into the end of the fourth quarter, even when it was clear they had lost.
With Arkansas having a healthy quarterback KJ Jefferson and running back Raheim Sanders, the Razorbacks should run the ball down the Tigers’ throats. That’s why I would bet the Hogs up to -6.5 on Friday.
CFB Week 13 Best Bets: Nebraska vs Iowa
Nebraska +10.5 (-109) at BetRivers Sportsbook
Under 38.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit Each
Both Iowa and Nebraska are weak offensive teams.
The difference is that Iowa has the 6th best scoring defense in the country as they allow only 14.6 points per game. That isn’t just a function of pace, as the Hawkeyes allow only 0.204 points per play which is the 3rd best in the country behind Michigan and Georgia.
Based on that we should see a low-scoring game.
The Over/Under is low, set at 38.5 points, but that is typical for Iowa this season. Of Iowa’s 11 games this season, only one game (Ohio State) had a point total of over 42 points. On the season, the Under is 8-3 in Iowa games this season.
With the low-scoring nature of both teams and Iowa’s strong defense, the Under is a no-brainer.
In low-scoring games, teams typically win by a smaller margin of victory. Nebraska lost to Wisconsin 15-14 last weekend, covering a +10 spread. Two weeks before, the Huskers lost to Minnesota 20-13, covering a +14.5 spread.
Nebraska hasn’t been that good as a football team this season, but they are a strong team against the spread, especially in low-scoring matchups. If they stay at +10 or better, I recommend a bet on their spread.
CFB Week 13 Best Bet: Kent State vs Buffalo
Buffalo -4 (-110) at BetRivers
WAGER: 1 Unit
Saturday has a lot of great college football games including Ohio State vs Michigan which features two CFB National Championship Odds favorites. One hour after that game starts is another much less consequential game between Kent State and Buffalo.
If Buffalo wins as a 4-point favorite, they are bowl eligible.
If Kent State loses, they still finish the season with a losing record.
Despite the lack of entertainment value compared to the OSU/Mich game, the better betting game is the Kent/Buff game.
Buffalo has a strong record in the MAC this season despite a 1-3 non-conference record that includes a loss to Holy Cross. They beat Eastern Michigan, Miami Ohio, Bowling Green, and Toledo.
Kent State, on the other hand, has been a mess this year after playing in the MAC Conference Championship last year. Their only notable conference win is in overtime against Ohio. Outside of that, they have losses against Miami-Ohio, Toledo, Ball State, and a near loss against Akron.
Last week’s Buffalo game against Akron was canceled due to snow, so the Bulls will be well-rested in this must-win game.
I like Buffalo on Saturday afternoon, if they are a -6.5 favorite or better.
CFB Week 13 Best Bet: Oklahoma vs Texas Tech
Oklahoma -2 (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Arkansas and Nebraska may be a big disappointment this season, and you can make a case for any team being disappointing, but the biggest disappointment has by far been Oklahoma.
The Sooners as a perennial National Championship contender have only a 6-5 record after losses to Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, Texas, and West Virginia. For this week’s game against Texas Tech, I believe that past performance isn’t predictive of future performance.
If Oklahoma plays its best football, they should easily win this weekend.
They beat Oklahoma State 28-13 at home last weekend. If they can perform similarly against Texas Tech, they will win by double digits. At -2, I like Oklahoma and I would bet them up to -3.
How To Bet College Football Week 13
Back underdogs in low-scoring games
‘Dogs will cover the spreads in a few spots. In games with projected low scoring, there is a smaller distribution of scores, and each point you get on the spread is worth more as a bettor than in high-scoring games.
Look for teams that need one more win to be bowl eligible.
To be bowl-eligible, teams need to have at least 6 wins. There are several five-win teams such as Buffalo playing this weekend that are good bets partly for this reason.
