November is here, which means it’s the last full month of the regular season. The National Championship picture is getting clearer as both Georgia and Ohio State are favorites, but Georgia has a tough test against Tennessee this weekend that could upend the CFB championship picture.
Below, read up on my best college football bets.
All college football odds are current as of 12 p.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 31, at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 52-68-3, -11.7% Return on Investment, +3.2% Closing Line Value
CFB Week 10 Best Bet: Tennessee vs Georgia
Georgia -8 (-110) at BetRivers
WAGER: 1 Unit
Arguably the best College Football game of the season is being played this weekend between Tennessee and Georgia. UGA is the No. 1 team in the country, while Tennessee is No. 2, making both CFB National Championship odds favorites.
Both teams are used to beating weaker opponents into oblivion, but this weekend, both will face their toughest test yet.
Therefore, we have the rare opportunity of being able to back Georgia as less than a 10-point favorite. Georgia’s plus-31 average scoring margin is the second-best in the country.
The Vols are a good team, but I have a hard time seeing how Georgia doesn’t win by at least two touchdowns.
I would bet them up to a -10.5 favorite.
CFB Week 10 Best Bet: Kentucky vs Missouri Best
Kentucky -2 (-107) at PointsBet
WAGER: 2 Units
What’s the matter with Kentucky? Are they a basketball school with a football problem?
The Wildcats started off the season strong with a 4-0 record until they played tougher conference foes. They lost to Ole Miss by only three points on the road but lost to South Carolina 24-14 at home. The cherry on top was last weekend’s 44-6 loss against No. 2 Tennessee.
Now is the perfect opportunity to buy low on UK.
I discount the Tennessee loss since they lost to a national contender, the Ole Miss loss because it was a nail-biter, and the South Carolina loss because they were without their starting quarterback Will Levis.
Against a weak Missouri team, Kentucky should easily win as a two-point favorite.
CFB Week 10 Best Bet: Michigan State vs Illinois
Michigan State +16.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
During the height of the pandemic, there was a betting angle that I loved that doesn’t exist as much anymore. When a team had several injuries because of COVID-19, I would wait until close to game time and bet on the team with the injuries.
The team with the COVID outbreak was obviously in much worse shape on paper, but those squads often didn’t fare as poorly as predicted
With Michigan State this weekend, it’s not health-related, but they are likely to have several players not playing. This is because there was a major brawl at the end of the Michigan game last weekend where several Michigan State players assaulted a handful of Michigan players.
MSU is likely to have suspensions, but with a low-scoring game, they should cover a +16.5 spread. Illinois is a tough out this season, but I have a hard time seeing them winning in a blowout.
I suspect the Spartans will be a larger underdog by game time, so that is when I will be placing my bet.
CFB Week 10 Best Bet: Syracuse vs Pitt
Syracuse +3.5 (-107) at PointsBet Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
Syracuse is one of the biggest surprises in college football this year with a 6-2 record. After losing their last two games, they are now 3.5-point road underdogs. What is notable is that those two losses came against tough Clemson and Notre Dame teams.
Clemson notably is a legitimate National Championship contender, and the Orange lost by only six points.
Now, they visit Pitt as a 3.5 underdog in a game that completes their strengths.
Pitt has an aggressive pass offense under Kedon Slovis. Syracuse has a great passing defense that is allowing only 6.2 yards per passing attempt, which is the 10th-best in the country. Quietly, this is better than Texas, Ohio State, Clemson, and Penn State.
Syracuse should be favored, which is why I am enthusiastically backing them as an underdog and would bet them up to a pick ’em.
CFB Week 10 Best Bet: Arizona vs Utah
Arizona +17.5 (-107) at PointsBet
Arizona Moneyline (+600) at Caesars
WAGER: .75 Units Each
Arizona is a worse team than Utah. The Utes have a 6-2 overall record and a 4-1 conference record. The Wildcats have a 3-5 overall record and a 1-4 conference record.
Despite the differential in talent, Zona has a good chance of winning and shouldn’t lose by the 17.5 points that they are projected to lose by.
The Wildcats have an aggressive passing attack led by quarterback Jayden de Laura. Out of all college football teams, only four have a higher passing play percentage than Arizona. That is why Arizona lost to USC by only eight points last weekend and Washington by only 10 points.
Utah, at times, has struggled against pass-heavy teams. They lost 42-32 against UCLA and only beat USC, 43-42. Arizona could win, which is why I would bet them up to +14.5, and their moneyline up to +400.
How To Bet College Football Week 10
Buy low, Sell high.
Several teams like Kentucky and Syracuse have played a handful of bad games recently, which has lowered their stock. This means you can bet on them and other teams at a reduced price against weaker competition.
CFB Playoff chasers could produce big margins of victory
As we get closer to the end of the regular season, National Championship contenders may look to run up the score in seemingly meaningless games to boost their national profile and playoff picture.
For example, Ohio State’s -15.5 spread may undersell a possible 30- to 40-point margin of victory.
Hammer the spreads of some of these heavy favorites.