It’s Week 5 of the college football season, which means more prop bets.
With a slate of several conference games to choose from, there are many great CFB prop bets to grab. Below I go over my favorite CFB best bets for props and my top angles to attack for the Week 5 college football slate.
Note: College football odds are current as of Wednesday, Sept. 28.
UTSA vs Middle Tennessee Prop
UTSA 1st Half Spread -2.5 (-115) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Last year, the UTSA Roadrunners started the season with a 10-0 record and were once ranked as the 15th best team in the AP Top 25 poll.
This season they are being discounted because of a 2-2 record to start the season. This is unfair, as their two losses came from Houston, who will be joining the Big 12 soon, and Texas.
The Roadrunners start their conference slate against Middle Tennessee on Friday night, and we should see them dominating each of their remaining games.
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Stylistically their potent running attack should do well against a weak MTSU running defense. At -2.5 at Betway, now is the time to back UTSA to cover the first-half spread as 8.4% of first halves have a margin of victory of three points.
At -115, the spread is a bit juicy, but I would even bet it up to either -125 or -3 (-105).
Michigan vs Iowa Prop
Under 21.5 First Half Points (-115) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Iowa can’t score to save its own life, but they also have a great defense. The most points they have allowed all season in a game is 10, and the most points they have scored have been only 27.
If Michigan doesn’t catch fire, we should see a low-scoring game decided by fewer than 7.5 points.
The full game total for this Saturday’s game is only 42.5 points, but the 21.5-point first-half total is even more appealing for me.
I wouldn’t be surprised if only three touchdowns are scored in the whole game, let alone the first half. Last week against Maryland, Michigan had a hard time in the first half, and the same thing can happen again.
The under is the play if the first-half total doesn’t dip below 21.
UMass vs Eastern Michigan Prop
UMass Team Total Under 16.5 Points (-105) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
UMass might be the worst team out of all 131 FBS teams this year. I wrote the exact words verbatim before last week’s game against Temple and was proven right when they lost 28-0. The donut that they put up on the scoreboard against Temple is embarrassing when you look at how bad Temple is this season.
Even though I am tempted to bet on UMass to score between 0-10 points at +175 at PointsBet, their team total prop at 16.5 points (-105) has a higher expected value. So I could see the Minutemen leaving another Spaghettio on the scoreboard on Saturday.
The most the Minutemen have scored this season in a game against FBS competition are 10 points against Tulane and Toledo. Against Stony Brook, UMass scored only 20 points.
Of all the college football props this weekend, this is my favorite one, and I would bet UMass’s team total Under up to 14.5 points.
Northern Illinois vs Ball State Prop
Northern Illinois 1st Half Moneyline -145 at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Northern Illinois nearly beat Kentucky last weekend on the road. The Huskies are the defending MAC Champions, and they start their conference slate on the road against Ball State.
The Huskies opened as -3 favorites this weekend, but sadly they have moved to -3.5. Fortunately, there is still value in betting Northern Illinois’ first half moneyline at -145.
The first half spread might be -1.5 (-115), but you shouldn’t be afraid of the juice. Historically, 6.6% of first halves ended in a tie, and 2.9% finished with a team up by one point.
Northern Illinois should be aggressive in running the football in the first half, and I would be surprised if they are behind at halftime. It might be juicy, but a -145 moneyline on Northern Illinois in the first half is worth a bet.
Fresno State vs Connecticut Prop
Fresno State 1st Half Spread -12.5 (-122) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: .75 Units
Believe it or not, 14 is the third most common margin of victory in the first half of college football games. In addition, 7.8% of first halves end up with a team ahead by 14 points.
With most sportsbooks having Fresno State as a -14 first-half favorite, it should be no surprise that I love Fresno State at -12.5 (-122) at BetRivers.
FSU loves to throw the ball. In fact, the Bulldogs have a passing play percentage of 57%. When you combine this with UConn’s inability to defend against the pass, Fresno State should cover their first-half spread.
If Fresno State’s first-half spread stays below 14, I recommend taking it.