With plenty of great conference championship games on Saturday, it is easy to miss the MAC Conference Championship. Even though neither Ohio or Toledo are ranked, we have a great game.
Toledo barely won the MAC West with a 5-3 conference record, while Ohio easily won the MAC East with a 7-1 record. Despite having a better season, Toledo is narrowly favored on Saturday.
For my MAC Championship Game predictions, I go over why Ohio is my favorite underdog for all of the Conference Championships being played this weekend.
MAC Championship Game Odds
As of Thursday, MAC Championship Game lines at Caesars Sportsbook have Toledo as a two-point favorite with a point total set at 54.5. I disagree strongly with the CFB odds on the spread, but agree with the odds on the point total.
MAC Championship Prediction
Ohio 30, Toledo 24
Even though Toledo topped the MAC power ratings all year, the reason why they are favored on Saturday is because of Ohio’s quarterback situation.
The Bobcats starting quarterback this year was Kurtis Rourke, who was recently named MAC MVP. Unfortunately, Rourke is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, but Ohio’s offense should put up enough points to beat Toledo.
Last week, without Rourke, Ohio was a 5.5-point favorite against Bowling Green and won 38-14. This was based on a strong performance from an offense that ran on 72% of their plays. Even though Rourke’s replacement, CJ Harris, is relatively mediocre, who needs him when their running game is decent?
Toledo’s defense has not been dominant against the run all season as they allow four yards per carry, which is only 0.2 yards less than the median FBS team. With recent upset losses against Western Michigan and Bowling Green, Toledo doesn’t look to be in good shape against Ohio.
MAC Championship Best Bet
Ohio Moneyline (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
If Ohio were at +2.5 or better, I would play the spread, but the moneyline is the better bet this weekend.
If Toledo were to win, it probably wouldn’t be close because they would have found a way to stop Ohio’s run game. I like the Bobcats to win outright on Saturday, and I would play their moneyline up to -105.