Fiesta Bowl Predictions | Liberty vs Oregon

Last Updated: Dec 22, 2023

The No. 8 Oregon Ducks will take on the No. 18 Liberty Flames at the 2023 Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona.

Oregon’s dominant season was spoiled twice by Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington Huskies, but the NCAAF odds have it as a heavy favorite in this bowl fixture.

Let’s take a look at Liberty vs Oregon best bets and predictions.

Liberty vs Oregon Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for Flames vs Ducks:

NCAAF lines used for Liberty vs Oregon were current as of Dec. 21 at 8 p.m. ET on FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Oregon (-820) • Liberty (+550)
  • Spread: Oregon -17.5 (-105) • Liberty +17.5 (-115)
  • Total Points: Over 66.5 (-115) • Under 66.5 (-105)

Oddsmakers were high on Oregon out the gate, and the spread continues to grow in favor of the Ducks as the game gets closer.

Liberty opened as 16-point underdogs and got as high as 18. Most books are now within the 17 to 17.5 range with still over a week left until this game kicks off.

Liberty vs Oregon Prediction

SCORE PICK: Oregon 44, Liberty 27

The Ducks finished the season 11-2 after a 34-31 loss to Washington in the Pac-12 Championship – and they lost to the same opponents 36-33 earlier in the campaign.

After how strong Oregon looked all season, Dan Lanning’s squad has to be upset with playing in a New Year’s Bowl rather than preparing for the College Football Playoffs.

The Ducks had arguably the best offense in the country, scoring more touchdowns than all other Division 1 schools.

However, a crushing defeat in the Pac-12 Championship ultimately sees Bo Nix and Co. preparing to take on the undefeated Conference USA Champions, Liberty.

The Flames dominated Conference USA, finishing a perfect 13-0 and earning a 49-35 victory over the New Mexico State Aggies in the Conference USA Championship.

Despite the impressive record, the Flames aren’t getting much love from the books in this matchup.

Even so, Liberty’s offense stacks up far closer to Oregon’s than many might imagine. Jamey Chadwell’s squad scored the third-most touchdowns (70) in the country and averaged nearly 515 yards of total offense per game.

These inflated numbers will more than likely be disregarded given the competition in Conference USA. However, achieving these statistics in 13 games is impressive nonetheless.

In the end, Oregon will be far more battle-tested in this matchup and dominate Liberty as a result.

Despite playing in the weaker conference, Liberty struggled defensively and often found itself in shootouts that ultimately led to its inflated offensive numbers.

The Flames’ defense allowed 24 or more points in eight of their 13 contests. Now, having to face Nix and the most potent offense in the Pac-12, it’s hard to imagine Chadwell’s squad having much success stopping the freight train headed their way.

To make matters worse, Oregon is one of the few schools to have the majority of its key players participating in the school’s bowl game. Apart from a few depth players, it seems we will be seeing the Ducks at nearly full strength.

Liberty vs Oregon Best Bets

Oregon Over 42.5 (-104)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units

The Ducks entered the Pac-12 Championship knowing if they won, they would likely be granted their second appearance ever in the CFP.

Despite entering the game as slight favorites, a fourth-quarter collapse by Oregon saw Washington not only win the conference but also punch its ticket into the playoffs.

Unfortunately for Liberty, Lanning’s squad will likely be seeking vengeance against its final opponent.

The Ducks have several weapons, and we’ve already talked about Liberty’s defensive woes throughout the season.

The Flames allowed just under 23 points per game this year but nearly 30 over their final three games of the season. Oregon reached or surpassed 42 points in six games this season.

Oregon will be relentless and attempt to embarrass its opponent after the season didn’t end the way it hoped.

Oregon to Win and Over 65.5 Points (+100)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Getting this moneyline/total points double at +100 is great value based on what we know about these teams.

Going by season averages, these squads would blow this point total out of the ballpark. However, it’s safe to say that Kaidon Salter and the Liberty offense won’t have as easy of a time racking up points against a relatively strong Ducks defense.

Even so, the Flames can add their fair share to the total before Oregon takes over and leads us to the promised land.

The Ducks managed to surpass this total by themselves once this year in an 81-7 victory over Portland State in the season opener. Oregon games have reached 65 or more points six times this season, while Liberty games have done it seven times.

Liberty vs Oregon Same-Game Parlay

Liberty vs Oregon SGP (+256)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Oregon -17.5 (-105)
  • Over 59.5 (-245)
  • Oregon Over 42.5 (-104)
  • 1H Over 34.5 (-144)

We will be following the logic discussed in our predictions and best bets in our Liberty vs Oregon Fiesta Bowl same-game parlay.

I am predicting a high-scoring affair, and these legs mirror that philosophy. I have opted for the 59.5 alternate point total and taken a hit odds-wise as a security blanket.

However, feel free to stick with FanDuel’s 66.5 point total, as the game should go Over and will make the parlay +311 rather than +256.

We then tailed our Oregon Over 42.5 from our best bets, which essentially fits hand in hand with the Oregon -17.5. I believe the Ducks have more than enough to dominate this game offensively and will run up the score as a result.

Finally, I went with the first half Over 34.5 simply because this game will be fast-paced and high-energy from the opening kick-off.

Liberty will not have the chance to play conservatively and try to establish a run game with how aggressively Oregon will come out from the jump.

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