The Michigan Wolverines have secured their bid to the Big Ten Championship Game, and only the Purdue Boilermakers stand in the way of a second straight Big Ten title.
Michigan finished the regular season 12-0 and rolled through almost everyone in their path. The Wolverines dominated Ohio State for the second straight year and Jim Harbaugh has officially changed the dynamic of the rivalry, and Big Ten East.
Purdue didn’t expect to be here, but three straight wins to close the season and a surprising Iowa loss to Nebraska allowed this team to represent the Big Ten West at 8-4 (6-3 conference).
Continue reading for Michigan vs Purdue 0dds, predictions, and best bets.
Big Ten Championship Game Odds
As of Monday, Big Ten championship lines at Caesars Sportsbook have Michigan as a 16.5-point favorite. It’s not surprising: Michigan is now a heavy contender in CFB National Championship odds, and Purdue barely snuck through a weak Big Ten West.
The implied total has Michigan winning 33.75 to 17.75, which feels on the low-scoring side, especially for the Wolverines against an average Purdue defense.
Big Ten Championship Prediction
Michigan 42, Purdue 17
Michigan’s offense has been impressive due to their powerhouse rushing attack, but it was the vertical passing game that earned them a win against the Buckeyes.
J.J. McCarthy had arguably his best game of the season without running back Blake Corum who is a mainstay near the top of the CFB Heisman Odds.
McCarthy completed just 50% of his passes, but his 12 completions went for 263 yards including touchdown passes of 69, 75, and 45 yards.
Corum was a non-factor due to injury and will get season-ending surgery and miss this game, but backup Donovan Edwards picked up the slack against Ohio State with two 75-plus yard touchdown runs in the fourth quarter to ice the game.
Purdue took care of business against Indiana and after an Iowa loss to Nebraska, earned their berth in the Big Ten championship.
The Boilermakers’ offense, led by senior quarterback Aidan O’Connell and transfer wideout Charlie Jones, has been one of the best passing offenses in the Big Ten.
O’Connell has thrown for 3,124 yards and 22 touchdowns but has been susceptible to turnovers with 11 picks. And Jones has developed into one of the best wideouts in the country, reeling in 97 passes for 1,199 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Michigan had success stopping the Ohio State passing attack and should be able to recreate similar success against Purdue on their way to a decisive win and a second straight Big Ten Championship Title.
Big Ten Championship Best Bets
Michigan -16 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Michigan has been here before. They’re more talented and they’re hungry for a second trip to the College Football Playoff.
The Wolverines won 42-3 in the Big Ten championship last year, and they should have success running the ball against Purdue who is middle of the Big Ten pack in rushing defense.
The Wolverines roll through Purdue, completing their undefeated season and earning a second straight bid to the College Football Playoff.
Total Points Over 51.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Both of these offenses can score, and with Michigan finding success in the passing game last week, it’s going to be tough for Purdue to slow them down.
O’Connell has attempted more passes than anybody in the Big Ten this season, and against an excellent Michigan team, you can expect 40-50 attempts in this one.
Michigan is eventually going to wear down this defense to the point they’re able to score at will in the second half to get this total Over.