TCU can cement a berth in the College Football Playoff with a victory over Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
The Horned Frogs (12-0) roared back with 28 unanswered points in their 38-28 win over the Wildcats on Oct. 22 in Fort Worth. They have the most prolific offense in the conference, averaging the most points and fourth-most in the nation (41.3).
TCU also ranks 16th in the nation and again leads the Big 12, in yards per game (473.3).
Kansas State enters the conference championship on a roll with three straight wins. The Wildcats are one of the few Big 12 teams committed to playing defense. They rank tied for 14th in the country and lead the conference in points-allowed per game (19.4).
Here’s a look at the best bets for TCU vs K-State.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 29.
Big 12 Championship Game Odds
As of Tuesday morning, TCU was a 2.5-point favorite in these CFB odds. The Over/Under was set in the low-60s based on the matchup of contrasting styles.
Big 12 Championship Prediction
TCU 34, Kansas State 31
The Horned Frogs have been one of the feel-good stories of the college football season, especially quarterback Max Duggan, who is second in the CFB Heisman Trophy odds. TCU was +1400 to win the conference in the preseason, according to BetMGM, and was roundly picked to finish between sixth and eighth in the Big 12 in Sonny Dykes‘ first season as head coach.
Duggan lost his starting QB job in the preseason to Oklahoma transfer Chandler Morris yet regained the spot after Morris injured his knee in TCU’s season-opening win over Colorado. Duggan has since ripped off 11 straight wins, including that victory over K-State, and has not relinquished his starting spot.
Still, the Wildcats could be a problem. They control the ball with star running back Deuce Vaughn, who rushed for 1,295 yards during the regular season and play strong defense.
K-State had TCU on the ropes, leading 28-10 in Fort Worth before Duggan and Horned Frogs leading rusher Kendre Miller (1,260 rushing yards, 16 TDs) willed them to the 10-point win.
Kansas State’s offense should be able to put up points against TCU’s middle-of-the-pack defense. The question is whether the Wildcats can force the Horned Frogs to punt so they can control the clock with Vaughn and senior quarterback Adrian Martinez.
These conference championship games can be full of mayhem, so expect a highly competitive game. But there’s too much on the line for TCU to lose, as they look to keep their CFB National Championship hopes alive.
Big 12 Championship Best Bets
TCU -2.5 (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
If you think the Horned Frogs will win, wagering on them to cover a field goal should be automatic. Since the spread is 2.5 and not three, you’re set if TCU wins by a field goal.
If the championship game comes down to a kick, TCU’s Griffin Kell was 14-for-15 on field goals during the regular season, including a walk-off game-winner against Baylor.
Trust the Horned Frogs to hold off the Wildcats for our college football pick of the day.
Over 62 Points (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
If this is a true Big 12 Championship Game there should be a ton of points, as the first meeting featured 66 points.
Although the K-State defense is stingy, the Horned Frogs’ offense should put up 30-plus points, which they have done in all but two games during the year.
The Wildcats’ offense can score, too, as they averaged 33.4 points per game, the sixth-most in the conference.