Clemson is to the ACC what Mariah Carey is to Christmas. You can’t have the ACC Championship Game without Clemson, just like you can’t have Christmas without that annoying Mariah Carey song.
From 2015-2020, Clemson won the ACC Conference Championship. Last season, Clemson narrowly missed out on the title game.
For my ACC Championship Game predictions, I address whether an upstart North Carolina team can beat Clemson.
ACC Championship Game Odds
As of Wednesday, ACC Championship Game lines at Caesars have Clemson as a 7.5-point favorite with a point total set at 63.5 points. I largely agree with these CFB odds as independent events, but the point total will be wildly different based on which team covers the spread.
ACC Championship Prediction
Clemson 31, North Carolina 20
Both Clemson and North Carolina have been disappointing this season. Neither team has truly dominated this year, even though they have been the best two ACC teams.
North Carolina has an up-tempo offense, but they have an average scoring margin of only +4.5. That is only about a field goal better than the median FBS team.
Looking at their game logs, it is easy to see why. Other than Pitt and Virginia Tech, every conference game this season has been close.
- Read about Clemson’s chances to win in our full CFB National Championship Odds report.
In their last two games, the Tar Heels got upset by NC State and Georgia Tech, and they barely beat weak Virginia and Miami (FL) teams.
Clemson has also been a disappointment this season as they had many near-losses despite an undefeated conference record. Additionally, they lost to two non-conference ranked teams in South Carolina and Notre Dame.
Neither team gives me much confidence, but Clemson should win in a game with much less scoring than projected.
ACC Championship Best Bets
Under 63.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
North Carolina may have a strong offense, but there have been many games this season where the point total has gone Under.
Last weekend, the point total went Over by only one point despite going to two overtimes. Against another explosive Wake Forest team, the total went Under despite a combined 70 points being scored.
Looking at North Carolina’s game logs, it is easy to conclude that their games largely failed to be as explosive as predicted.
I like the Under this weekend and I would bet it up to 60.5 points.
Clemson -7.5 (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 units
I am cautiously backing Clemson against North Carolina on Saturday. The Tigers have looked vulnerable this season, but North Carolina has failed to impress me.
In fact, the Tar Heels haven’t beaten a single ranked team. Clemson, on the other hand, was undefeated in conference play. The Tigers went through a tough five-game stretch where they beat Wake Forest, Syracuse, NC State, and Florida State.
When looking through their common opponents, Clemson won by more points than North Carolina.
I would prefer to bet on Clemson at -7, but at -7.5, I am willing to bet half a unit on them.