Week 4 of the college football season was another profitable one for this weekly column. We hit our Best CFB Parlay for a return of $133.14 but missed the other two for a -$35. That leaves us with a Week 4 profit of $98.14.
Week 5 doesn’t have the same marquee contests as Week 4, but there are four contests between nationally ranked opponents and several home underdogs that could pull off an upset or two.
There are three parlay options for you to consider for Week 5. Each card is wagered differently based on the odds available and the likelihood of the parlay hitting.
Best CFB Parlay This Week
All three legs of our Week 4 Best CFB Parlay landed last week for $133.14, but we ended up on the wrong side of the numbers with -0.7% CLV.
Saturday’s Best CFB Parlay will also feature a three-leg moneyline parlay. The teams are all home favorites with a high implied probability of winning, and we hope to continue our two-week winning streak.
Phil Naessens TGD CFB Best Parlay Record: 3-2 (+$349.47)
CFB Week 5 Parlay (+212)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
- LSU ML (-142)
- Georgia State ML (-120)
No. 13 LSU travels to meet No. 20 Mississippi in a tough SEC West matchup that the Rebels have won three of their last five at home. Look for Tigers QB Jayden Daniels to have a field day against a Mississippi passing defense, allowing 226 passing yards per game.
Georgia State is 4-0, and they have looked impressive on both sides of the ball. The Panthers boast the 10th-best turnover margin in the nation and have scored 30 or more in all four contests. Troy has the second-worst turnover margin in the FBS, and the visiting Trojans defense isn’t good enough to get the stops needed to pull off the upset.
CFB Week 5 Long Shot Parlay Bet
We missed our Week 4 Long Shot parlay when Notre Dame lost in the waning seconds to Ohio State. This week brings several upset possibilities, and we’ll risk 0.25 units or $25 on this CFB Week 5 Long Shot Parlay Bet.
Phil Naessens TGD CFB Long Shot Parlay 2023 Record: 1-4 (+$48.18)
CFB Week 5 Long Shot Parlay (+463)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 Units
- Buffalo ML (+130)
- East Carolina (+145)
Our first leg features the 0-4 Buffalo Bulls visiting the 1-3 Akron Zips. The Bulls have a high-scoring offense but hardly play any defense, whereas Akron has the better defense but has a negative 0.50 turnover margin. Buffalo has a three-game winning streak against the Zips and has an excellent chance to pull off the upset Saturday at InfoCision Stadium.
East Carolina is a short-road underdog, and their slow start is why they are the +145 away underdog. Rice couldn’t stop the USF offense last week, and I don’t believe they will stop improving the Pirates’ offense with one of the better passing defenses in the country.
CFB Same Game Parlay Pick
We missed both legs of our Week 4 Same Game Parlay, and we’ll head back to the drawing board for Week 5 from Saturday’s No. 22 Kansas vs. No.3 Texas matchup.
Phil Naessens TGD CFB Same Game Parlay 2023 Record: 1-4 (EV)
CFB Week 5 SGP (+460)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.10 Units
- Kansas +16.5 (-110)
- Kansas Under 61.5 (-110)
- Devin Neal Anytime TD Scorer (-130)
Kansas is 4-0 and has scored at least 31 points in their four games. Texas hasn’t faced an offense like this, Jayhawks, and while I believe Texas will win the game, 16.5 points is a lot of points to cover for the 2-2 ATS Longhorns to cover.
While these two offensive groups can score the football, the respective defenses have done a good job keeping points off the scoreboard this season. The Under is 4-0 in the Longhorns’ last four games as a favorite and 4-0 in the Longhorns’ previous four games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Jayhawks RB Devin Neal has scored five touchdowns with an additional receiving TD and failed to score in last week’s 38-27 home victory over BYU. Look for the Kansas offense to lean on their star and for him to find the end zone Saturday.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers is among the favorites according to the latest Heisman Trophy odds.