By Kevin Davis
Jan 10, 2022
The 2021 CFP Playoffs are set to conclude with the CFP National Championship game on Monday, January 10, 2022, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
In the Cotton Bowl, the Alabama Crimson Tide triumphed over the Cincinnati Bearcats in a 27-6 blowout win. Georgia, meanwhile, easily beat Big Ten champions Michigan 34-11 in the Orange Bowl.
Here are our top 2021 CFP National Championship betting picks and Alabama vs Georgia predictions.
Alabama vs Georgia National Championship Odds
NCAAF gameday odds for the 2022 National Championship Game are current as of Monday, January 10, at noon ET at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Georgia (-135), Alabama (+115)
- Spread: Georgia -2.5 (-110), Alabama +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 52 (-110), Under 52 (-110)
- Implied Totals: Georgia 27.25, Alabama 24.75
Alabama vs Georgia National Championship Prediction
In the SEC Championship game in December, Alabama shocked the world as a six-point underdog against Georgia.
Not only did Alabama win, but they did so convincingly as they won 41-24. UGA by far has the most dominant defense this season as they have only allowed 9.8 points per game. Despite this, the Crimson Tide broke through the Bulldogs’ iron curtain.
Both Georgia and Alabama have 13-1 records and play in the same conference, but stylistically, the two SEC powerhouses are starkly different.
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Alabama’s offense is led by Heisman Trophy winner QB Bryce Young, who despite playing against tough SEC defenses put up strong numbers. Young has 4503 passing yards, a 67.6% completion percentage, 46 passing touchdowns, and only five interceptions.
On defense, Bama has also been strong as they allow only 19.6 points per game which is the 14th-best in the FBS. As a result, Alabama has an average scoring margin of 21.3 points, the third-best in the FBS.
Alabama may win each game by an average of three touchdowns, but Georgia wins each game by an average of four touchdowns. UGA has an average scoring margin of 27.8 points, the best in the country.
Even though the Bulldogs have a high average scoring margin based on their defense, their offense is still pretty good. Georgia averages 37.7 points per game which is the 8th-best in the country.
From a betting angle, the CFP National Championship game comes down to how you view both teams’ last two games.
Georgia was favored by six points against Alabama in the SEC championship, yet they lost by 17 points. Then in the CFP Semi-Final game against Michigan, UGA won 34-11 against a dynamic Michigan team as a 7.5 point favorite.
Based on this, Georgia is favored by only 3.5 fewer points in their rematch against Alabama.
Alabama vs Georgia Prediction: Alabama 35, Georgia 24
Going into the season Alabama was the favorite to win the SEC, yet after losing to Texas A&M, Georgia became the favorite. Then Bama won the conference, but the consensus still is that UGA is the best team.
In Alabama’s Semi-Final game against Cincinnati, they easily covered as a 13.5 point favorite, winning 27-6 against a stout Bearcats defense.
Even with Georgia playing better this season, based on Alabama’s recent body of work, the game should be closer to a tossup than Georgia being a slight favorite.
Alabama vs Georgia National Championship Best Bets
Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline (+115) at Caesars (would bet up to +105)
Wager: 0.75 Units
The Alabama/Georgia line hasn’t changed since opening at Georgia by 2.5 points, which is where it will likely stay until kickoff.
Georgia opened as a 7.5-point favorite against Michigan and closed at the same price. Alabama opened as a 13.5-point favorite against Cincinnati and closed at 13 points. Once you have high-profile games where large amounts of money is wagered, the lines are more efficient.
As a result, the timing of when you bet on the CFP National Championship is not as important as the timing for lower-profile regular-season games.
Alabama is a slightly better team than Georgia and they shouldn’t be slight underdogs. The Crimson Tide won the conference and beat Georgia by a large margin in the SEC conference championship game.
UGA’s gameplan is to never let their opponents score, and Alabama has already found a way to break through that gameplan. That is why I like them to win.
moneyline
+115
Alabama Defeats Georgia
Bet $20, Payout $43
Best Bet: Alabama -6.5 Alt Spread (+245) at Caesars
Wager: 0.75 Units
If Bama beats Georgia it will probably be in another blowout, by at least a touchdown. I love the value here at +240 and would bet anything over +180 on this.
spread
+240
Alabama Covers -6.5 Spread vs Georgia
Bet $20, Payout $68
Want to add a National Championship parlay ticket? Read our Alabama vs Georgia parlay bet.
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