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Ohio State vs Michigan Predictions

Last Updated: Nov 20, 2023

This is it: undefeated against undefeated with, most likely, a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line. In the history of one of college football’s biggest rivalries, it just might be the biggest edition yet when the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes take on the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor this Saturday.

Ohio State owned the 2010s decade of this rivalry, but with two consecutive wins, Michigan is roaring back. This year’s edition will be full of controversy, but is undoubtedly the highest-caliber game of the regular season across the country.

Who will win the definitive game of the season? Find out with our free Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan Wolverines college football picks and predictions for Saturday, Nov. 25, at noon ET.

Ohio State vs Michigan Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for Buckeyes vs Wolverines:

NCAAF lines used for Ohio State at Michigan were current as of Sunday, Nov. 19 at 11 p.m. ET on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Michigan (-192) • Ohio State (+160)
  • Spread: Michigan -4 (-110) • Ohio State +4 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 46.5 (-110) • Under 46.5 (-110)

There has been tremendous line movement on this one in the wake of Michigan’s underwhelming win at Maryland, as the Wolverines were previously favored by just Under a touchdown, but now the line has moved closer to the range of a field goal.

Meanwhile, the total continues to project a relatively low-scoring ballgame

Ohio State vs Michigan Prediction

SCORE PICK: Michigan 23, Ohio State 16

In many ways, Michigan has been the best team in the country this season. For instance, it leads the nation in EPA per play.

Amid all of the controversy, it has continued to play some excellent football, and until Saturday’s contest at Maryland, nobody had forced it to play a full game. To some, the performance might be cause for concern, but the opportunity to play a tight fourth quarter might be a good reality check for a team that had coasted all season.

All of that being said, the Wolverines’ rivals to the South will be by far their toughest test yet. The Buckeyes sport not only one of the best defenses in the country, much like the Wolverines, but a legitimate superstar on offense in wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

Still, after almost this exact same Michigan roster (minus an injured Blake Corum) ran up the score on the road last year against an OSU team that had NFL star C.J. Stroud at quarterback instead of Kyle McCord, it’s hard to imagine things going well for the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor.

This should be more of a defensive battle, but the outstanding Michigan defense will get to McCord and stifle the OSU offense enough to secure the biggest win of the season.

Ohio State vs Michigan Best Bets

Michigan -4 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Wolverines have covered this number in every game this season – usually comfortably – and while nobody they’ve played so far is in Ohio State’s league, they did win on the road by more than a touchdown against a great Penn State defense.

They should be a bit more comfortable at home, where their vertical passing attack with quarterback J.J. McCarthy will be more able to test Ohio State’s secondary with some big plays.

Conversely, Ohio State has had some tougher outings on the road. The offense was also relatively limited in road performances against Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Indiana, none of whom defend at a similar level to Michigan.

Even so, perhaps the more concerning matchup for OSU is on the other side of the ball. It’s hard to find an offense it has played that comes anywhere close to Michigan’s caliber.

Under 46.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

All year, the marquee games in the Big Ten have been great opportunities for betting the Under; this one, perhaps the biggest game the conference has ever seen or will ever see, is no exception. Michigan’s defense is the best in the country by EPA per play, while Ohio State’s is sixth.

For points allowed, the Wolverines have the best game average with a mark of nine, and the Buckeyes are right behind at 9.3. Yardage per game? Michigan in first, Ohio State in third.

This is the defensive matchup of the year, if not of multiple years, and betting the Over on a number this high is impossible. Both quarterbacks have shown relative vulnerability in recent weeks, and could each be in for a tough Thanksgiving Saturday.

Ohio State vs Michigan Same Game Parlay

Ohio State vs Michigan SGP (+184)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

  • Michigan (-192)
  • Under 46.5 (-110)

We don’t have too many options available to us for a same game parlay nearly a week away from The Game, but we can grab a bit of value on Michigan’s moneyline by pairing it with the Under, which itself is a great play. This wager protects us a bit, relative to Michigan on the spread.

While the Wolverines have every ability to cover, -4 is a tough football number, and we could lose if they win by just a field goal. This bet allows us to win even if they scrape out the victory by just a point in a hard-fought, low-scoring rivalry classic.

Author

John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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