Duke vs Florida State Predictions

Last Updated: Oct 18, 2023

The No. 16 Duke Blue Devils travel to take on the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles in an ACC powerhouse showdown Saturday.

FSU is one of two undefeated teams in the conference after a 41-3 beatdown of Syracuse last weekend.

Meanwhile, Duke bounced back after suffering its first loss two weeks ago with a 24-3 victory over NC State.

Can head coach Mike Elko lead the Blue Devils to their first-ever victory against the Seminoles?

Duke vs FSU Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for Blue Devils vs Seminoles:

NCAAF lines used for Duke @ Florida State were current as of Oct. 16 at 2 p.m. EST on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: FSU (-625) • Duke (+455)
  • Spread: FSU -14 (-110) • Duke +14 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 49 (-110) • Under 49 (-110)

Oddsmakers are high on FSU, with the line opening at 15.5 points on Sunday. Though there has been movement throughout the day, the spread appears to have leveled off at 14 with about five days before kickoff.

Duke vs Florida State Prediction

SCORE PICK: Florida State 33, Duke 13

A 14-point spread is no easy number to justify in most cases. However, that two-possession advantage sportsbooks are giving the Seminoles seems fitting based on the season Mike Norvell’s squad is having.

Florida State has dominated just about every team that has lined up against it this season – evidenced by its 6-0 record.

The Garnet and Gold are averaging 42.2 points per game and have yet to score under 31 points in a contest.

Norvell’s squad has one of the best ground attacks in the country right now, with a big reason being junior standout Trey Benson.

FSU’s balanced offense has the potential to cause problems for an otherwise stout Duke defensive unit.

The Blue Devils have heavily relied on a defense that has allowed under 10 points per game on average.

While this easily ranks them within the top-five units in the country, Duke has yet to face an opponent this season that is anywhere near as potent as Florida State’s.

It will be interesting to see if starting junior quarterback Riley Leonard will return from injury after missing Duke’s last game.

The dual-threat quarterback has been a focal point of the Blue Devils’ offense and an integral reason for the team’s success.

If Leonard is unable to go, redshirt freshman Henry Belin IV will likely get his second consecutive start after picking up a win last weekend.

The 19-year-old finished the game just 4-12 with 107 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in his first career start.

Duke vs Florida State Best Bets

Florida State -14 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units

We already discussed that the 14-point spread may seem a bit ambitious, especially against a top-five defense.

However, with how dominant Jordan Travis and the Florida State offense have looked all season, and specifically the last two weeks, one should feel confident that they’ll cover here.

While Duke’s defense will certainly come up big at times in this game, the offense will simply not be able to keep up with Leonard’s availability still up in the air.

FSU’s versatility on the offensive end will ultimately lead it to a large victory in this matchup.

Under 49 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

FSU’s defense has really come into its own over the past two weeks. After allowing 24 or more points in three of the first four games of the season, Norvell’s squad has taken things to another level, allowing just 20 combined points in the last two weeks.

Depending on the Blue Devils’ quarterback situation, it’s easy to see the Seminoles’ recent defensive dominance continuing.

Duke should keep FSU at bay for much of the game and vice versa.

Duke vs Florida State Same-Game Parlay

Duke vs FSU SGP (+415)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Florida State -14
  • Under 49
  • 1H Under 24.5

Staying away from the moneyline for odds purposes, this same-game parlay includes both of our best bets alongside the first-half Under.

We will be banking on both defenses dominating this game for much of the contest. With what we’ve seen from these squads in recent weeks, this is certainly a possibility even with the -14 leg needed for this to cash.

Tracking the injury updates for Duke’s Leonard will be crucial, as his return could have an impact on the spread and point totals.

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