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Alabama vs Auburn Predictions

Last Updated: Nov 20, 2023

College football season has absolutely soared past us at lightning speed, but before the regular cadence of Saturday slates goes away, we have the best weekend of all with rivalry week. That of course includes one of the most classic final week matchups: the Iron Bowl, played between the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide and the Auburn Tigers.

Alabama is coming in on a big winning streak after an early loss to Texas, and still looking to make the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Auburn just lost at home to New Mexico State by a score of 31-10, but we’ve seen crazier upsets in this series, especially at Auburn’s legendary Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Alabama owns the edge in the all-time series with a record of 49-37-1, but Auburn arguably has the most memorable wins.

Who will cap off the regular season with a win in perhaps the South’s biggest rivalry? We’ll have to wait and see, but let’s dig into some free Alabama Crimson Tide vs Auburn Tigers college football picks and predictions for Saturday, Nov. 25, at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Alabama vs Auburn Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for Crimson Tide vs Tigers:

NCAAF lines used for Alabama at Auburn were current as of Sunday, Nov. 19 at 8:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Alabama (-700) • Auburn (+500)
  • Spread: Alabama -14.5 (-110) • Auburn +14.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 49 (-110) • Under 49 (-110)

Alabama is a pretty big favorite on the road, but Auburn has that all-important half-point hook on the two-score spread. As for the total, it’s a pretty standard one for SEC games this season.

Alabama vs Auburn Prediction

SCORE PICK: Alabama 27, Auburn 17

Let’s just call it what it is: Auburn paid the price for a lookahead of tremendous proportions, as New Mexico State absolutely owned it on its home field this weekend. It gives us the opportunity to bet it on an even bigger spread than it would have probably seen otherwise, especially when paired with a dominant Alabama win over Chattanooga.

Alabama should absolutely pull this one out, but it might be sleepwalking to a degree against an Auburn team that has made it hard to take it seriously. With Georgia up next week in the SEC title game, while Nick Saban will preach focus on the task at hand, plenty of Crimson Tide minds will be on the two-time defending national champions and earning a spot in the College Football Playoff.

With both teams ranking in the top 40 in the country in terms of defensive EPA per play, as Alabama ranks 26th and Auburn 34th, this should be a hard-fought defensive battle, especially given the mediocrity of Auburn’s offense. Alabama has the talent to pull away, but the intensity of a rivalry matchup, as well as Auburn’s considerable home-field advantage, will keep this game relatively competitive.

Alabama vs Auburn Best Bets

Auburn +14 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

With bowl eligibility secured after a dismantling of Arkansas, and of course its biggest game of the season looming, Auburn lost focus against New Mexico State.

It’s a shame, too, as it had been playing some nice football amid a three-game win streak, albeit against lesser competition, but the defense had put in a few strong performances in a row, especially against Arkansas, as it essentially made talented quarterback K.J. Jefferson a non-factor.

As for Alabama, it’s hard to detract from what it has done since losing to Texas, but this isn’t quite a perfect team. The Tigers have a solid enough pass rush to make things less easy than usual for Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and will be highly motivated to end the SEC schedule on a high note, and should make this a fun one even if they do come up a bit short.

Under 49 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

If Auburn isn’t able to make this competitive, it’s likely not going to be due to the game becoming a shootout that got away from it. It’s probably due to a complete failure to launch for its offense, which ranks 81st in the country by EPA.

Even before scoring just 10 points on New Mexico State, it had put in some rough showings, such as hanging just 18 points on LSU and 10 on Texas A&M.

We’ve also seen it slow down the pace and overall scoring against great teams, such as a 27-20 loss to Georgia, whose offense is realistically better and more talented than Alabama’s. The Tigers rank 76th in the nation in terms of pace of play on offense, while the Crimson Tide rank 96th.

They’re also ninth and 13th, respectively, when it comes to rushing play percentage, so expect this one to fly by and feature relatively few snaps and possessions.

Alabama vs Auburn Same Game Parlay

Alabama vs Auburn SGP (+335)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

  • Alabama (-700)
  • Under 49 (-110)
  • Auburn +14.5 (-110)

Even in a highly-anticipated game like this, we are limited to just a few options when it comes to putting together a SGP. So, we’ll do it all- moneyline, spread, and total, building on the concepts we discussed above, but adding in the wrinkle of Alabama on the moneyline.

While Auburn should keep this one close, it’s not likely it wins, so we’ll use this parlay to bet on the specific outcome of a close, low-scoring Alabama win.

Author

John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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