This Saturday brings a Big 12 rivalry game between two nationally-ranked teams from the Lone Star State, as Texas Tech (11) takes on Texas (20) for the second time this month.
In their first meeting at Texas Tech earlier in February, the Red Raiders won at home, 77-64. With the Longhorns hosting this time around, oddsmakers are expecting a tossup.
As both teams prepare to make a March Madness run, can Texas exact revenge on their intrastate rivals at home?
Please note that odds for this game have not been listed yet as of 5 p.m. ET on Friday, Feb. 18.
Texas Tech vs Texas Predictions
Texas has played a tough schedule thus far, enduring the 38th-toughest slate in the country. To the Longhorns’ credit, they’ve held their own with a 19-7 record. Only Alabama has more losses among teams in the AP Top 25 poll, however.
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On the Longhorns’ best day, they are a strong defensive, slow-tempo team that can hang with anyone, as they have the 10th-best defensive efficiency and 14th-slowest adjusted tempo in the country. Where they’ve fallen short is against strong offensive teams like Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Gonzaga.
Texas Tech is a mirror image of Texas, and not just because they play in the same state. They have the third-best defensive efficiency in the nation and also play at a slow tempo. With impressive wins over Baylor (twice), Texas, Kansas, and Tennessee, the Red Raiders are a borderline championship contender based on our March Madness simulation.
In their last meeting, Texas averaged only 0.91 points per possession against Texas Tech — significantly below their season average of 1.05. With the Red Raiders holding opposing teams to just a 46% effective field goal percentage, the Longhorns are going to have their hands full.
Based on how similar these two squads are, this will likely be a close game decided by just one or two possessions. I expect Texas Tech to win again, however, as they’re the better team.
Texas Tech vs Texas Prediction: Texas Tech 67, Texas 63
Can Texas take down Texas Tech at home in this weekend’s NCAA basketball Big 12 rivalry game? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Texas Tech vs Texas Best Bets
Best Bet: Texas Tech if -1.5 or better
Wager: 1 Unit
According to KenPom, Texas has a 57% chance of beating Texas Tech here. Based on how well TTU has played recently, however, I disagree.
The Red Raiders already beat Texas less than three weeks ago, split their season series with Kansas, and beat Baylor twice. Outside of Kansas, I believe Texas Tech is the best team in the Big 12 — even better than Baylor.
Accordingly, I’m backing Texas Tech to cover the spread for my CBB bet of the day.
Best Bet: Over if 124.5 Points or lower
Wager: 1 Unit
I’m a glutton for punishment, which is why I’m taking the Over in this game if it is 124.5 points or lower on our CBB gameday odds.
While both teams are formidable defensively and play at a snail’s pace, they still combined for 141 points in their last bout. Even if they don’t score as many points in Saturday’s rematch, they could still hit the Over.
With the potential for a close game with a lot of strategic fouls at the end, I believe we’ll see the Over hit in the final minute. This game could go to overtime as well, which would make the Over even more likely.
