UConn vs Purdue Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Apr 8, 2024

It all comes down to this.

No. 1 UConn (36-3) and No. 1 Purdue (34-4) will battle it out on the grand stage in the NCAA Tournament National Championship on Monday, April 8, at 9:20 p.m. ET. Both teams have put together phenomenal runs to reach this point, but which has the upper hand going into tonight’s title game?

Here are our best bets and predictions for UConn vs Purdue.

UConn vs Purdue Odds

Oddsmakers are split on the spread, according to the latest NCAAB odds. Most books have UConn installed as a 7-point favorite, but some still have them at -6.5.

The Over/Under has also decreased since it opened at 147.5 points, dropping down to 145.5 as of Monday morning. Both sides are excellent on both sides of the ball and play at relatively slow paces — the Huskies especially — so the drop was expected.

UConn vs Purdue Prediction

UConn 72, Purdue 63

The Boilermakers did well to put an end to NC State’s historic run, but they’ll need to reach another level to knock off the Huskies. UConn’s highest highs have come within the last few weeks, and they’re playing their best basketball when it matters most.

One factor that helps swing this one in UConn’s favor is the presence of Donovan Clingan, who at 7-foot-2 is the tallest player Purdue star Zach Edey has matched up with throughout the NCAA Tournament. He won’t cancel Edey out, but he will make life much more challenging for him.

Outside of the battle down low, it’s clear that the Huskies have the superior depth and rotation. Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith are great complementary pieces, but they don’t hit quite as hard as guys like Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer, or Stephon Castle.

With that in mind, I’m looking for the Huskies to earn a relatively comfortable win. The Boilermakers will keep things interesting, but when it comes to late-game execution, no one does it better than Dan Hurley and UConn.

UConn vs Purdue Best Bets

UConn -6.5 (-112) vs Purdue

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

On top of racking up the most wins in college basketball this season, the Huskies have also gone 27-12 against the spread. Only six teams have posted a higher cover rate than UConn, and Purdue (21-15-2 ATS) isn’t one of them.

Moreover, the Huskies have met virtually every challenge thrown their way. They’re an NCAA-best 10-2 ATS against ranked opponents heading into Monday’s title game, posting an average margin of victory of 12.1 points in such games.

More than anything, though, UConn’s dominant run through the NCAA Tournament is all the evidence I need to suggest that it can cover as 6.5-point favorites over the Boilermakers. This team looks genuinely unstoppable right now.

Back the Huskies with your best college basketball bet today.

Under 145.5 Points (-110)

bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

After seeing how UConn handled Illinois and Alabama’s electric offenses, the Under feels like the only play for the National Championship. And while Purdue is efficient, it doesn’t rely on a fast tempo to rack up the points, which contributes to a lower-scoring game.

The Huskies play at one of the slowest paces in the nation and are incredibly methodical on both ends of the floor. If they control the tempo, the Under will be firmly in play.


Garrett Chorpenning

Garrett Chorpenning is the Lead NBA Editor for The Game Day. His previous work includes covering the LA Clippers for Sports Illustrated and FanSided. He graduated from Ball State University in 2021.

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