Only one No. 1 seed remains in the NCAA tournament as Kansas was able to narrowly defeat Providence in the Sweet 16. Kansas will be making their 23rd appearance in the Elite 8, where they will take on Miami, who just beat Iowa State to advance to their first Elite 8.
Considering that Miami is the No. 10 seed out of the Midwest region, they are going to be slight underdogs to Kansas. But with Miami being able to make it this far in the tournament — and with the upsets we’ve already seen — anything is possible on Sunday.
Will Kansas inch closer to making the national championship game? Or will Miami punch their ticket to their first Final Four and put themselves in a position to compete for a title?
Keep reading below to see my predictions and best bets for Sunday’s showdown between Kansas and Miami.
Kansas vs Miami Odds
Kansas vs Miami March Madness odds are current as of Saturday, March 26, at 11 a.m. ET, at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Kansas (-280) vs Miami (+230)
- Spread: Kansas -6 (-110) vs Miami +6 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 (-110) / Under 147.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Kansas 76.75, Miami 70.75
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Kansas vs Miami Prediction
Both of these teams are well-coached. Bill Self has Kansas in a position to add to their already-impressive resume, while Jim Larrañaga has Miami poised to make history.
Kansas deploys a talented starting five that is led by Ochai Agbaji, Jalen Wilson, and David McCormack, with Remy Martin being a phenomenal sixth-man for them.
Meanwhile, Miami leans on Kameron McGusty, Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller, and Sam Waardenburg to provide them with excellent play. Miami has been able to advance this far in large part due to their ability to force turnovers; opponents have turned the ball over 49 times in their first three tournament games.
Kansas averages 12.4 turnovers per game (154th in the country), so if they don’t take care of the ball, Miami could hang around. At the same time, Miami only turns the ball over 9.4 times a game (seventh-fewest in the country), making it tough to force them to make mistakes on the offensive end of the floor.
With Larrañaga having Miami playing sound basketball on both ends of the floor, I believe this game could come down to the wire. If Kansas shoots like they did against Providence on Friday, where they made only 22 of their 56 shots, then they could be in massive trouble on Sunday.
While I’m nearly always rooting for an underdog to prevail, it’s hard to imagine Kansas having another woeful shooting night.
Kansas vs Miami Score Pick
Kansas 71, Miami 67
Miami is going to be more than prepared to battle it out with Kansas, but their efforts will fall short on Sunday. More likely than not, Kansas will shoot closer to their season average of 47.7% from the field, rather than the 39.3% that they shot from the floor on Friday against Providence.
Regardless of who they play, Miami seems to find ways to hang around as they can force turnovers in bunches that can turn into easy points. Despite the game being decided in the final minutes, Kansas will be able to narrowly escape with a victory to advance to the Final Four.
Kansas vs Miami Best Bets
UNDER 147.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I made a fool of myself by taking the Over in the Kansas and Providence game as they combined for only 127 points on Friday, which was 14.5 points fewer than the projected total. Even though I knew there was a chance it would hit the Under, I didn’t envision Kansas and Providence making a combined 55 of their 124 shots.
Of the eight Sweet 16 games, only one of them hit the Over, and that was the matchup between Texas Tech and Duke. So while I am hoping for high-scoring, competitive contests in each game, it’s hard to see 148 points being scored in Sunday’s clash between Kansas and Miami.
Kansas comes into this contest allowing 67.7 points per game (119th in the country) while Miami gives up 70.2 points per game (187th in the country). Also, while Kansas has an Over/Under record of 6-3-1 at neutral sites, and Miami has a 6-3 record on the Over at neutral sites, both teams have combined to hit the Over only once in their first three games in the tournament.
I’m riding with the Under in today’s CBB bet of the day.
Miami +6 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
We’ve seen Kansas produce two consecutive mediocre performances in the tournament against Creighton and Providence. While Kansas has been able to come away with the win in each contest, they better be prepared to face a Miami team that doesn’t make many mistakes and is well-balanced on both ends of the court.
Once again, Miami’s ability to induce turnovers could lead to this game being closer than some expect. Kansas has struggled with turnovers in certain games, so they could be susceptible to Miami’s high-pressure defense on Sunday, which helps Miami cover the spread.
- Find the rest of our Elite 8 Best Bets for the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Miami has defeated Auburn and Iowa State with ease in their last two contests, beating them by an average of 16 points. While Miami certainly has a chance to pull off the upset against Kansas, all we need for them is to stay within six points to cover the spread.
At neutral sites this season, Kansas has covered the spread in five of their 10 games while Miami has covered the spread in five of their nine games. In the tournament thus far, Kansas is 1-2 against the spread while Miami is 3-0 ATS.