The more the NCAA Tournament field shrinks, the more bettors become likely to place a March Madness same-game parlay.
The tournament has reached the Sweet 16, which means there are only eight games to bet on between Thursday and Friday, and fewer options to consider than the basketball-filled opening weekend.
Michigan State and Kansas State are set to square off in what should be a hotly contested East Regional semifinal at Madison Square Garden on Thursday. The Spartans are seeking their 11th Final Four in school history, and the Wildcats are vying for their first Final Four appearance since 1964.
Here are a couple of same-game parlays I’d recommend for Michigan State vs Kansas State.
Pat Pickens’ March Madness Betting Record: 8-11 (-5.5 units)
Kansas State vs Michigan State Best Same Game Parlay
Kansas State vs Michigan State Best SGP (+130) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
- Kansas State +5.5 (-205)
- Over 130.5 Points (-250)
- Keyontae Johnson: 20+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-550)
The Wildcats are my pick to win, but by teasing them to cover 5.5 points, it mitigates against that pick if it is wrong. Twenty-five percent of the second-round games were decided by five points or fewer, and that figure likely stands to be low for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
Spartans games are averaging 137 points, and there have been about 135 points in the Wildcats’ games. I tend to think the game’s Over — 137.5 — is the pick (more on that below), but teasing it down to include 131-plus gives us much more of a chance for it to hit just in case a Big Ten-style game breaks out.
Read more KSU vs MSU Sweet 16 betting tips:
Johnson is K-State’s best player and is averaging 26.3 points, rebounds, and assists per game. He has surpassed 20 in the stat combo in eight of the Wildcats’ past nine, or every game he hasn’t had to deal with Oscar Tshiebwe.
The odds on this aren’t great, but this heavily teased same-game parlay is a great option for new SGP bettors who want to cash in on a solid three-legger in a game that should be a coinflip. In this parlay, a 68-63 Michigan State win will hit, as long as Johnson does his thing.
Kansas State vs Michigan State Longshot Same Game Parlay
Kansas State vs Michigan State Longshot SGP (+1400) • BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Over 137.5 Points (-110)
- Overtime Played: Yes (+1050)
I predicted Kansas State to win the game in overtime, and BetMGM was the only sportsbook to add an OT prop to a same-game parlay. But I understand the anxiety about wagering a team to win in overtime in what is essentially a coin flip.
Thus, betting on a teased-down Over is the way to go, especially given the incredibly long odds added by the potential of OT.
It would be a really awful beat if the game got to extra time, and the team you wagered lost. But if there is overtime, there’s five extra minutes for the Over to hit.
