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Wisconsin vs Iowa State Predictions | Best Bets & Odds

Posted: Mar 19, 2022Last updated: Mar 19, 2022

The 3-seed Wisconsin Badgers (24-7) and the 11-seed Iowa State Cyclones (21-12) will meet in the Round of 32 in the Midwest section of the bracket. This matchup figures to be an excellent battle between the Big Ten and the Big 12, respectively.

With almost half of the teams hailing from the Big Ten now out of the tournament, the Wisconsin Badgers — the team with the best regular season record from the conference — will try to continue to represent.

Iowa State was in the middle of the pack in the Big 12 heading into the tournament, but performed admirably in the Round of 64.

Wisconsin heads into this game coming off of a seven-point victory over Colgate, a game they were largely expected to handle with ease. The game was tied at halftime, but the Badgers were able to find themselves in the second half.

Iowa State enters the Round of 32 after a narrow, five-point victory over LSU, a game that was expected to be a photo finish and did not disappoint. 

At the moment, Wisconsin ranks 34th in KenPom ratings while Iowa State ranks 36th. Metrically, this game figures to be close throughout. 

Wisconsin vs Iowa State Odds

Wisconsin vs Iowa State odds are provided by BetMGM and are current as of March 19 at 3:00 p.m. EST.

  • Moneyline: Wisconsin (-200) vs Iowa State (+170)
  • Spread: Wisconsin -4.5 (-110) vs Iowa State +4.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 126 (-110) / Under 126 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Wisconsin 65.25, Iowa State 60.75

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Wisconsin vs Iowa State Prediction

Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the tournament, evidenced by their No. 3 seed. Personally, I did not expect Iowa State to get past LSU, but if the Cyclones and Badgers both play like they did in the first round, anyone can win this game. 

The Badgers are one of the most well-rounded teams in the country, balancing an 87th percentile AdjO and 90th percentile AdjD. Simply put, they are elite at both ends of the floor.

Iowa State ranks in the 60th percentile offensively in terms of AdjO, but defense is their calling card, impressively ranking in the 97th percentile in AdjD. 

This game is going to come down to whether or not Wisconsin can figure out what the chinks in Iowa State’s defensive armor are. 

Wisconsin vs Iowa State Score Pick

Wisconsin 67, Iowa State 61

This game will almost undoubtedly be tight from start to finish. Iowa State is not a typical 11-seed by any stretch of the imagination and they should give Wisconsin a run for their money.



Still, I believe Wisconsin wins this game in the latter portion of the second half, pulling away in a contest that’s within one possession for almost the entirety of it.

Wisconsin vs Iowa State Best Bets

Wisconsin -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

WAGER: 0.5 Units

Picking a spread bet on this game is tough, but if I had to go in any direction here, it would be in favor of the Wisconsin Badgers.

I do believe we are splitting hairs between these two squads, but Wisconsin has a massive edge offensively in a game that sets up to be a defensive showing on both sides. I trust Wisconsin to figure out the Cyclones’ defense before Iowa State figures out the Badgers’ defense.

Take Wisconsin -4.5 for a small wager if you are looking for action in what is being billed as a must-watch tournament game.

OVER 126 (-110) at BetMGM

WAGER: 0.25 Units

Keeping it small on the wager here as well, I’m backing the Over 126 in this one. The betting total is one of the lowest in the tournament so far, but it is for good reason.

As previously mentioned, both of these teams possess excellent defensive units, with Wisconsin ranking in the 90th percentile in AdjD and Iowa State ranking in the 97th percentile.

This game should be very low-scoring, but I think Wisconsin does just enough offensively to hit the Over by a few points minimum.

Author

Daniel Preciado

Daniel is a current student at Syracuse University in the sports analytics program where he is minoring in economics and cognitive science. He is an occasional guest speaker for the Society of American Baseball Research and is a yearly participant in numerous high-stakes fantasy leagues across multiple sports. Prior to joining The Game Day, Daniel has written for Prospects Live, Fantrax, FanSided, and countless Dodgers blogs.

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