The 11-seed Iowa State Cyclones and the 10-seed Miami Hurricanes head into the Sweet 16 in one of the most unlikely March Madness matchups in recent memory.
Both teams were not expected to do much in the tournament as double-digit seeds, but they have both individually been welcome surprises. Iowa State knocked off LSU and Wisconsin, while Miami edged out USC before dominating 2-seed Auburn.
Unfortunately, only one of them will come out of this matchup and head to the Elite 8. Iowa State has the slight edge per KenPom (37th vs 42nd), so this is likely to be a close contest.
Miami vs Iowa State Odds
Miami vs Iowa State March Madness odds are provided by BetMGM and current as of Monday, March 21 at 5 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Iowa State (+120), Miami (FL) (-145)
- Spread: Iowa State +2.5 (-110), Miami (FL) -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 133.5 (-110) / Under 133.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Miami (FL) 68, Iowa State 65.5
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Miami vs Iowa State Prediction
Needless to say, not many folks picked this matchup to happen in their bracket. Having a pair of double-digit seeds face off in the Sweet 16 with the guarantee of one making the Elite 8 is actually quite fantastic considering the narrative.
Both the Cyclones and Hurricanes have played excellent basketball on both ends of the floor through their two games in the tournament. Despite tough opponents, they have both risen to the occasion.
Iowa State has continued to showcase their outstanding defensive chops, while Miami (FL) has put their offense-first approach into action.
The Cyclones rank in the 99th percentile in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) and a mediocre 57th percentile in adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO). The Miami Hurricanes are built almost the exact opposite, with a 95th percentile AdjO and 66th percentile AdjD.
Miami vs Iowa State Score Pick
Miami 68, Iowa State 60
In a battle between an offensive powerhouse and a defensive giant, this game is going to be a close battle. However, I like Miami (FL) in this fight. The Hurricanes have played the better teams to this point and Iowa State has not been thoroughly tested just yet.
I do not believe either side wins by double-digits, but Miami (FL) can get close to pulling that off.
Miami vs Iowa State Best Bets
Miami -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1.5 Units
I’m all-in on the Miami Hurricanes. They’ve turned me into a strong believer over the past week. Heading into the Sweet 16, I do not think there is a better team to fit the Cinderella mold, and as a 10-seed, they have more to prove.
Iowa State is a very capable team on the defensive end, but I am expecting Miami to blow through with their offense — a strategy that worked quite well against Auburn.
Take Miami -2.5 for a larger 1.5-unit wager with the expectation that Miami continues to get offense from their entire roster.
Under 133.5 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 0.5 Units
Totals in games like this are very difficult to figure out. Their strengths essentially cancel each other out.
Iowa State is excellent at controlling the pace of play with their defensive effort and decisive offensive play, so if they do take control, I can see the Under hitting with ease.
- Want to place a parlay bet for this March Madness game? Read our pick for Miami vs Iowa State Same-Game Parlay.
This should be a wager to go small on. Somewhere in the 0.5-0.75 unit range is perfectly fine in my opinion, but the real prize comes in the form of the Miami spread. Regardless, I’m officially suggesting a half-unit wager on the Under 133.5 in this one.