The Elite 8 is the time of the college basketball season where games are extremely close.
Spreads start looking bigger, and overtime becomes more likely. Even games that look lopsided on paper tend to be close since the games feature 18-to-24-year-olds.
The Florida Atlantic vs Kansas State East Regional final at MSG on Saturday night looks like one of those games. If you’re anxious about betting against K-State, which looks like a team of destiny, or the Owls, who have only lost three times in 37 games, prop wagers may be the solution for you.
Here’s a look at some prop bets I like for Kansas State vs Florida Atlantic.
Pat Pickens’ March Madness Betting Record: 25-16 (+14.1 units)
Kansas State vs Florida Atlantic Prop Odds
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Note: CBB odds mentioned in this article for Kansas State vs Florida Atlantic were used from DraftKings Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted, and are current as of Friday, March 24.
Kansas State vs Florida Atlantic Game Props
Kansas State: Wins by 6-Plus Points (+150) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
FAU is too tenacious and seasoned to get blown out in this game, and an extremely tight game would favor the Owls, since they are 9-1 in games decided by five points or fewer, including their 66-65 win over Memphis in the first round.
Kansas State is too talented to get routed and will probably be able to control the game with guard Markquis Nowell, Keyontae Johnson and an offense that’s scored 83-plus points per game in the NCAA Tournament.
Read all of our Kansas State vs Florida Atlantic picks:
This prop accounts for the likelihood of a close game appearing more lopsided in the box score thanks to free throws. Kansas State ranked 53rd in the nation in free-throw percentage (75 percent), and they have shot 76 percent from the line for the tournament.
I picked K-State to win by six. That would enable this prop to hit, narrowly.
Kansas State vs Florida Atlantic Team Props
Kansas State: Over 73.5 Points (-105) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
FAU has been holding teams down, limiting its three opponents to 63.3 points per game. But the Owls haven’t played a team as consistent or as hot, offensively, as Kansas State has been.
The Wildcats have scored 75-plus points in five of their past six games, including their 75-69 win over Kentucky where Johnson was held to just 13 points. Nowell has been scoring like crazy throughout the tournament, but if nerves or an off-shooting night hits, the Wildcats still have great scoring depth in Johnson, Desi Sills, Cam Carter, Nae’Qwan Tomlin, and others.
K-State should get to 75 points again, win or lose.
Florida Atlantic: Under 33.5 First-Half Points (-120) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
This will be the biggest game of most Owls players’ lives, and each side could be feeling the nerves early. FAU has trailed at halftime in two of its first three tournament games and has not yet scored more than 32 first-half points in any game.
The Owls will need to score to keep up with the Wildcats, and if K-State builds a 10-point advantage at any point, FAU will be in deep trouble. I like the Over in the game, but betting the Owls to have a hard time getting uncorked seems like the play.
Kansas State vs Florida Atlantic Player Props
Markquis Nowell: Over 30.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
I like Johnson’s prop too (Over 25.5, -125 at DraftKings), but the odds for Nowell are better and he is quickly shooting up the list for the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player. He’s surpassed 30 points plus assists in every tournament game and six of the Wildcats’ past nine, and is averaging 32.0 points, rebounds, and assists per game in that span.
It’s entirely possible nerves or regression take over and cause this prop to fail, but the way Nowell is scoring and sharing the ball, this should be golden.
Johnell Davis: Over 14.5 Points (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I picked the Over in this game, which means someone will need to score for the Owls, too. It’s safe to think Davis will be that guy since he’s the team’s leading scorer and has gone for 15-plus points in four of the past five games for the Owls, including his 15-point performance in their upset win over Tennessee.
What makes this prop extremely likely to hit is Davis’ free-throw prowess and ability to get to the line. Davis is shooting just 46 percent from the field in FAU’s three tournament games but is 19 for 21 on free throws (90.4 percent).