Duke vs. Michigan State Predictions | Best Bets & Odds

Last Updated: Mar 19, 2022

Two coaching legends square off for one final time as No. 2 Duke will face off against seventh-seeded Michigan State in the West Region second-round game in Greenville, South Carolina.

The Blue Devils handily took care of No. 15 Cal-Fullerton on Friday night. Led by national player of the year candidate Paolo Banchero, who scored a game-high 17 points and chipped in 10 rebounds, the Blue Devils won their first tournament game for the sixth straight NCAA appearance.

The Spartans are back in the second round for the fourth time in five seasons thanks to a 74-73 win over upstart Davidson on Friday night. Tom Izzo‘s team has only advanced past its second tournament game once in that span, in 2019 when Michigan State reached the Final Four.

Duke vs. Michigan State Odds

Duke vs Michigan State/Davidson odds are provided by Caesars and are current as of Saturday, March 19 at 2 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Duke (-280) vs Michigan State (+230)
  • Spread: Duke -6.5 (-110) vs Michigan State +6.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 144.5 (-110) / Under 144.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Duke 75.5, Michigan State 69

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Duke vs. Michigan State Prediction

Duke, which ranked eighth in the country in points per game (80.1), has had defensive deficiencies of late. The Blue Devils surrendered an average of 67 points per game this season, yet has allowed more than that in five of their past seven, including five of the past six against Power 5 competition.

The Spartans are 9-10 in their past 19 games, but Izzo always seems to pull out the stops this time of the year. Plus, the Spartans offense got off the mat in the second half against Davidson, outscoring the Wildcats 23-17 over the final 6:52 of regulation.

Still, Izzo has struggled throughout his career against legendary Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, who is expected to retire at season’s end. Coach K owns a 12-3 record against the Spartans since Izzo took over in 1995, and 3-2 record in the tournament.

This will be the legendary coaches’ sixth head-to-head meeting, the most of any coaching duo in tournament history. Izzo claimed the most recent victory, a 68-67 result in the East Regional final in 2019.

Duke vs Michigan State Score Pick

Duke 72, Michigan State 71

Duke may have superior talent, but it’s been fickle of late, with just a 3-2 record over its past five that undoubtedly cost it a No. 1 seed. The Spartans were ranked as high as 10th in the nation in January, so this won’t be your typical 2 vs. 7 second-round affair.

When you factor in the exceptional coaching on both sides, this game should be nothing short of a classic.

Duke vs. Michigan State Best Bets

Michigan State +6.5 (-110) at Caesars

WAGER: 2 Units

The Spartans have been playing exceptionally close games. Each of their past five has been decided by 10 points or less, and four have been by six points or fewer.

Considering the comparable talent and coaching on each side, this should be a close game. Duke could pull away late, but Michigan State should be able to hang around.

UNDER 144.5 (-110) at Caesars

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Under is never a bad bet in a game featuring a team from the Big Ten, especially this time of year when the conference historically has been successful by grinding out games. Given Michigan State’s status as underdog, we’d also expect it to slow the game down in an effort to stay close to the Blue Devils.

If Michigan State is going to compete, which we expect it to, it can’t get in a track meet with Duke.


Pat Pickens

Pat Pickens is a seasoned sportswriter who has covered pro sports since 2013 for various websites, including The New York Times,, Bleacher Report,, USA Today, the Associated Press and many others. His debut book, titled "The Whalers" about the history of the NHL's Hartford Whalers, was released in October 2021.

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