The No. 2 seed Auburn Tigers (27-5) and 10-seed Miami Hurricanes (24-10) will meet in the Round of 32 in the Midwest region. It may appear to be a David and Goliath matchup on paper, but it might not be upon a closer look.
Auburn is one of the best teams in all of college basketball, demonstrated by their seeding, but Miami (FL) might be the best double-digit-seeded team the tournament has seen in quite some time.
Auburn is coming off of a decisive 19-point victory over Jacksonville State, a game they were largely expected to win in the fashion they did. Miami (FL) matched up with USC in one of the greatest thrillers in this year’s edition of March Madness so far, winning by two.
As it stands, Auburn currently ranks ninth in KenPom rating while Miami (FL) ranks a respectable 54th.
Auburn vs Miami (FL) Odds
Auburn vs Miami (FL) odds are provided by BetMGM and are current as of March 19 at 8:00 p.m. EST.
- Moneyline: Auburn (-350) @ Miami (FL) (+260)
- Spread: Auburn -7.5 (-110) @ Miami (FL) +7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 144.5 (-110) / Under 144.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Auburn 76, Miami (FL) 68.5
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Auburn vs Miami (FL) Prediction
Auburn is personally one of my picks to be in the Elite 8 and I do not see them stopping here. Miami (FL) is a very capable opponent, but Auburn has handled teams of their caliber all season long with ease.
I did expect Miami (FL) to take care of the USC Trojans, and they did. Still, Auburn is the much better team on paper, both within their roster and in the advanced metrics.
The Auburn Tigers are in the 94th percentile in AdjO and 98th percentile in AdjO at the moment, ranking eighth in the NCAA in defense. On the other hand, Miami (FL) has the 18th-best offense, ranking in the 95th percentile, while carrying a mediocre 60th percentile AdjD in the context of exclusively tournament teams.
Auburn vs Miami (FL) Score Pick
Auburn 82, Miami (FL) 69
Auburn should win this game by double digits, but expect Miami (FL) to hang around until the very end.
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This will be one of those games where Auburn has control the entire time, but it never gets out of hand. Auburn is just too good of a basketball team.
Auburn vs Miami (FL) Best Bets
Auburn -7.5 (-110) at BetMGM
WAGER: 0.75 Units
I believe this spread is pretty sharp, all things considered. There is likely a stronger chance that Miami (FL) hangs around in a close game than Auburn blowing them out entirely.
Still, I like the Auburn side of the spread more. Standing as one of the most underrated teams in the tournament, the Tigers may show their true colors in this round and earn themselves a well-deserved spot in the Sweet 16.
Take Auburn -7.5 for a small 0.75 unit wager.
OVER 144.5 (-110) at BetMGM
WAGER: 0.75 Units
While I am not expecting this game to fly Over the betting total by any means, both of these teams are so good offensively that it is difficult to imagine this game being anything less than a pure shootout.
Miami (FL) is here because of an outstanding offense and a lack of defense, something Auburn will be able to exploit with ease, in all likelihood. Auburn is excellent on offense to the point where I can see both of these teams trading buckets for 40 minutes.
