The Arizona Wildcats were one of the most popular selections to win the NCAA Tournament this season. With an elite offense and defense and so much talent on the roster, Arizona absolutely has the potential to make a run at this thing.
But the competition is going to get tougher. The Wildcats will now take on the TCU Horned Frogs, who just knocked off Seton Hall 69-42 in their opening game of the NCAA Tournament.
After the first round of games, it’s clear that the Big 12 was the best conference this season. TCU is clearly no pushover.
How will Arizona approach this game on Sunday? Here are our picks and predictions for the Round of 32 matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and Arizona Wildcats.
Arizona vs TCU Odds
TCU vs Arizona odds are provided by Caesars and are current as of Saturday, March 19 at 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: TCU (+360) @ Arizona (-475)
- Spread: TCU +9.5 (-110) @ Arizona -9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 143 (-110) / Under 143 (-110)
- Implied Score: Arizona 76.25, TCU 66.75
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Arizona vs TCU Prediction
Personally, I have Arizona winning the NCAA Tournament. In my opinion, there’s not a single team that stacks up well against them.
The Wildcats are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 56.1% while earning 34.6% offensive rebounds on the season. They’re hitting 35.9% from deep and 57.4% from inside, good for fifth in the nation in field goal percentage on two-point baskets.
Arizona is turning the ball over 18.2% of the time, which is an average number for college basketball. However, the Wildcats have been getting to the line at a solid rate and should ultimately be fine offensively against a TCU team that usually doesn’t produce much on the offensive end.
TCU is shooting an effective field goal percentage of just 49.1% on offense and turns the ball over 21.5% of the time. The Horned Frogs don’t take care of the basketball or shoot it all that well, but they continue to be dominant on the offensive glass, earning an NCAA-leading 37.8% offensive rebounds per game.
The Horned Frogs are currently hitting just 30.5% from deep and 50.6% from inside the arc. Meanwhile, Arizona is holding teams to a 44.3% effective field goal percentage, with teams shooting just 32.8% from three and 41.7% from inside.
On the other hand, TCU has held teams to 31.4% from deep and 47.5% from inside the arc. But overall, Arizona’s defense is able to limit fouls better while absolutely dominating inside defensively.
Therefore, I like Arizona to hold TCU’s offense throughout the game and cover the spread as the No. 1 seed.
TCU vs Arizona Score Pick
Arizona 75, TCU 59
The TCU Horned Frogs just completely lack offensive skill. TCU guard Mike Miles is used on 26.6% of possessions and is a great passer, but ultimately, TCU doesn’t have a consistent scorer on the team. That’s not going to work out against a dominant Arizona defense.
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The Horned Frogs will earn a ton of rebounds off their own misses, but essentially. Arizona’s center Christian Koloko and forward Azuolas Tubelis have been very good on the glass.
Arizona assists on 65.4% of field goals made and has plenty of chemistry on the offensive end, too.
Arizona vs TCU Best Bets
Arizona -9.5 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Arizona is 32-3 on the year and built a roster than can win it all this year. Arizona takes good shots, dominates the offensive glass, defends very well inside the arc, and continues to block shots at a rapid pace.
TCU’s defense allows them to upset any team in the nation, but going up against Arizona will be extremely difficult for the Horned Frogs. It’s tough to stop Arizona’s offense as they do so much well.
The Wildcats have really great ball movement, a couple of bigs on pogo sticks, and guys that can shoot from distance with ease. TCU isn’t going to get stops against this elite Arizona offense.
Meanwhile, outside of offensive rebounding, the Horned Frogs have been awful on the offensive end and put up some really bad quality shots. Arizona might allow some offensive rebounds, but the Wildcats have the length and size to compete.
UNDER 143 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Arizona is one of the fastest offenses in the nation, but TCU is going to want to slow things down and limit possessions in this game. The Horned Frogs realize that if they’re going to have a chance to win this game, they’ll need to commit themselves on the defensive end and move slowly on the offensive end.
TCU is ranked 15th in the nation in defensive adjusted efficiency while Arizona is 20th in that same category via KenPom. With two teams that are in the top 20 defensively, it’s a safe play to take the Under in this game.
