Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction & Best Bets For Game 5 | Spread, Over/Under, & Moneyline Odds

Last Updated: Apr 27, 2022

Denver finally won a game in this series and will now head back to California for Game 5 against Golden State. The Nuggets still have their backs to the wall, and rumor has it the Warriors may start their infamous small-ball lineup with Draymond Green at center.

This move would be for the obvious reason of getting Stephen Curry back in the lineup without benching breakout guard Jordan Poole. Denver will be hard-pressed to keep up on offense but would gain an even bigger advantage for Nikola Jokic at least.

The Warriors are once again heavy favorites at home, but a 3-1 lead is not their biggest friend historically.

Which team will win the second showdown of this Western Conference series? Let’s explore some of the best Warriors vs Nuggets bets for this game.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 5 Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Wednesday, April 27, at 7 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Warriors (-440), Nuggets (+340)
  • Spread: Warriors -8.5 (-110), Nuggets +8.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 226 (-110) / Under 226 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Warriors 117.25, Nuggets 108.75

NBA Sportsbook Play of the Day

Slam home your basketball bets with BetMGM’s welcome offer: New BetMGM Sportsbook customers can bet $10 to win $200 in free bets.

Make a $10 moneyline bet on any game. If either team makes a three-point basket, you’ll win!

🏀 NBA Bet $10, Win $200: .

Read Anthony Cervino’s hands-on BetMGM Sportsbook review to learn more.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 5 Prediction

The Warriors are finishing this one off at home. Denver did its best in Game 4 and were an Andrew Wiggins missed dunk away from potentially losing the game. Our question now is not whether Golden State will win, but by how much.

Denver was blown out by double-digits in each of the first two games in this series and are potentially looking at another drubbing at Golden State. Momentum can be used to argue for Denver or the loss of Andre Iguodala, but Iguodala didn’t play in Game 2 when Golden State won by its biggest margin this series (20 points).

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 5 Score Pick

Warriors 128, Nuggets 117

This game goes well over the total as Golden State plays more small-ball even if they do not start the game with it. It is likely that Kevon Looney still plays a significant role to absorb Jokic’s minutes away from Green, but he should still lead the team with his fair share of minutes and usage.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 5 Best Bets

OVER 226 Total Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Every game in this series has gone over 226 points. Expect this trend to continue as the Warriors potentially go smaller in Game 5 and Jokic eats in the paint versus Green and/or Otto Porter Jr.

The more minutes Curry plays, the more overall scoring there will be for both teams. Denver, having to keep up, will be forced to take shots earlier in the shot clock.

Warriors Cover -8.5 Spread (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Warriors, as stated, will take this game and most likely win by double-digits. They are simply too good for the top-heavy Denver Nuggets, who lack necessary talent outside of potential back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic.

Jokic will get criticized for this fact, but it is as true as ever that one star is not nearly enough. Two is the minimum to win not only in the modern playoffs but historically.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 5 Parlay

Best Same-Game Parlay (+380)

  • Draymond Green: Records Double-Double
  • Warriors Moneyline

WAGER: 2 Units

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 5 SGP

Green can double-double with either points, rebounds, or assists given his versatility, so there are multiple avenues to hit here. Meanwhile, it is fairly expected that the Warriors will come away with the win.

Parlay the moneyline on the Green prop to juice the line a tad and win some money with something that should be a lock if he does end up starting.

PREVIOUSLY: Warriors vs Nuggets Game 4 Prediction

Don’t look now, but the Golden State Warriors might be back.

Stephen Curry and Co. have made short work of the Denver Nuggets thus far, winning each of the first three games in the series despite stellar play from MVP finalist Nikola Jokic. Now, the Warriors are on the verge of a series sweep.

Will Golden State be able to pull off the feat in Game 4? Or will Denver fight back and force a Game 5 in San Francisco? Find out how we see this contest turning out in our Warriors vs Nuggets Game 4 prediction.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 4 Odds

All NBA playoff odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, April 23, at 2 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Warriors (-190), Nuggets (+160)
  • Spread: Warriors -4 (-110), Nuggets +4 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 224.5 (-110) / Under 224.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Warriors 114.25, Nuggets 110.25

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 4 Prediction

The Warriors pounced on the Nuggets from the jump in Game 3, scoring 69 points in the first half alone. Their offense, which ranked 17th in the regular season, has been nothing short of mesmerizing.

A large part of that is due to the performance of Jordan Poole, who has emerged as the long-lost splash brother alongside Curry and Klay Thompson. After averaging 18.5 points per game during the season, Poole is averaging 28.7 points and hitting nearly 60% of his three-pointers in his first playoff series.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are clearly struggling to keep up without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. on the floor. Jokic has obviously done well to shoulder the additional load, but Denver lacks a go-to secondary scoring option that would help keep this series competitive.

Jokic dazzled with 37 points and 18 rebounds in Game 3, but even that wasn’t enough to help the Nuggets defeat the Warriors. A cold stretch in the last few minutes was the final nail in the coffin.

It’s up to Denver’s role players to step up and force a Game 5, but considering how dangerous Golden State has looked, I have to believe that the Warriors close this thing out in Game 4.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 4 Score Pick

Warriors 119, Nuggets 108

Because this is a do-or-die situation for the Nuggets, I’m banking on this being a higher-scoring game. Denver is going to pull out all the stops in an attempt to salvage the series, and Golden State is going to rely on its shooters to keep pace with them.

At the same time, the Warriors understand that a win here would grant them additional days of rest before they take on the winner of the 2 vs 7 matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Warriors will be just as motivated to win Game 4, and because they’re the more talented team as of now, I have to side with them.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 4 Best Bets

Warriors Cover -4 Spread (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Warriors have won the first three games in this series by an average margin of victory of 13.7 points. Their most recent win was the closest, winning by five, but the spread still seems to favor them.

Golden State has hardly looked vulnerable, and it took a near-40-20 performance from Jokic for the Nuggets to look competitive. Even if he has a similar showing in Game 4, the Warriors have already proven that it may not be enough to take them down.

You could snag the Warriors moneyline if you feel that the Nuggets will keep this game closer, but I’m comfortable backing Golden State to cover for our NBA bet of the day.

Warriors OVER 114.5 Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Like the spread, this line also appears to be set a little too low. Golden State is averaging 122.3 points per game in this series, and the Nuggets have not played well enough on defense to make me believe they can hold the Warriors under 115 points.

  • Check out our Warriors vs Nuggets Game 4 Props.

Look for the trio of Curry, Thompson, and Poole to continue firing away from deep and help Golden State hit the Over on this prop.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 4 Parlay

Best Same-Game Parlay (+675)

  • Warriors Moneyline
  • Klay Thompson OVER 22.5 Points
  • Nikola Jokic OVER 1.5 Threes

WAGER: 1 Unit

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 4 SGP

I’m confident that Golden State can cover the spread, but we’re going to play things a little more safe in our parlay and choose the Warriors moneyline.

Additionally, I like Thompson to score 23+ points. He’s averaging exactly 22 in the series, though he managed to hit 26 in Game 3. He’s looked more comfortable with each game, and as he continues to settle in, he’ll become a more reliable shooter.

Finally, there’s good value in adding Jokic to hit the Over on his three-pointers prop. He’s only gone 2-for-11 in this series, and both makes came in Game 3. However, as a career 34.5% shooter from deep, he’s bound to return to form soon.

The Warriors head to Denver for Game 3 after leaving the Nuggets in the dust once again. Golden State has won the first two games of this series by a combined margin of 36 points. Game 2 closely resembled Game 1, except with an even better performance from star guard Stephen Curry.

After shooting 5-for-13 in Game 1, Curry came out firing and sank 12 of his 17 shots (5-10 from three). He is looking close to 100% despite only playing 23 minutes. This should put fear into Denver’s hearts, because the more they have to try and stop him, the more open opportunities will appear for Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole.

Which team will win the second showdown of this Western Conference series? Let’s explore some of the best Warriors vs Nuggets bets for this game.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 3 Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, April 21, at 6 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Warriors (-140), Nuggets (+120)
  • Spread: Warriors -2.5 (-110), Nuggets +2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 223 (-110) / Under 223 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Warriors 112.75, Nuggets 110.25

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 3 Prediction

The Nuggets are coming into Game 3 with their backs to the wall, yet they do have some semblance of a home-court advantage. Denver is a tough place for opposing teams to win, and this will be crucial as Curry’s return has all but re-instated the Warriors as of the West’s most dangerous teams.

There is no real shame in losing to the recent three-time champions, though you can’t say the Nuggets won’t go out and give it their all to at least hang one against them. In the end, Golden State is likely to take it given the giants they are.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 3 Score Pick

Warriors 110, Nuggets 108

This game may be scary close. It is difficult to see either team blowing the other out, and the margin of 2.5 points assures me of it. These types of lines are frustrating because you may be enticed to just take the moneyline on Denver if you believe in them, but it feels like it almost never ends up going that way — especially if you bet them.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 3 Best Bets

Nuggets Cover +2.5 Spread (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Buying the points here in relation to the moneyline makes sense given that there isn’t much of a squeeze from (+120) to (-110). Denver could very well win this game at home despite poor efforts through the first two games.

Nikola Jokic only played 28 minutes in Game 2 due to an ejection and that could play into his favor given how much usage he typically sees. Additionally, four of Denver’s five starters played fewer than 30 minutes last game, while four of Golden State’s starters played at least 30 minutes.

The Warriors are clearly the better team and should end up winning this series, but Game 3 will be much tougher for them even with an extra day of rest between games.

Under 223 Total Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Over has hit in both games thus far, but my guess is that the change in altitude from Bayside to Denver affects this game a tad for the Warriors who are likely more gassed than the Nuggets coming into Thursday night’s matchup.

As mentioned, the Warriors run tighter rotations even in blowout wins, and that could start to affect them in Game 3 regardless of whether they win or lose. Hence, the Under looks like the smart play.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 3 Parlay

Best Same-Game Parlay (+360)

  • Nikola Jokic: OVER 29.5 Points
  • UNDER 223 Total Points

WAGER: 0.5 Units

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 3 SGP

It may seem foolish to bet a player Over and game total Under, but we’re riding with this one in the post-ejection game for Jokic. With his relatively fresh legs and offensive dominance prior to leaving Game 2, his scoring total is far too low.

Jokic hit 26 points without draining a single three-point shot and found his way to the free-throw line more consistently. Mix that with a game where Golden State may not have the same shooting luck as the first two, and you have a chance for a juicy parlay to hit.

The Warriors manhandled the Nuggets to the tune of a 16-point beatdown in their first real playoff game since 2019.

As we recall, Golden State did not make it out of the Play-In Tournament last season and were bottom-feeders throughout the 2019-20 season with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson sidelined. They came out firing in Game 1, but it is fair to question whether that will hold in Game 2.

Which team will win the second showdown of this Western Conference series? Let’s explore some of the best Warriors vs Nuggets bets for this game.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 2 Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Monday, April 18, at 6 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Warriors (-320), Nuggets (+250)
  • Spread: Warriors -7 (-110), Nuggets +7 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 221.5 (-110) / Under 221.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Warriors 114.25, Nuggets 107.25

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 2 Prediction

Game 1 didn’t go as I had expected given that Denver +6.5 was my call, but the Warriors did end up winning as expected with the Over hitting as well, which made for a nice little parlay hit (+162).

Game 2 is where we pivot from the Warriors winning to the Nuggets. The most important points are that last game was a post-blowout loss, with one team shooting hot from three (Warriors) while the other relatively cold (Nuggets).

The Warriors also shot 16 more free throws in Game 1 than Denver, and that shouldn’t happen again. This is the making of a nice juiced Nuggets bet just before they head home.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 2 Score Pick

Nuggets 110, Warriors 107

This game is nowhere near the 16-point margin and ends up more entertaining than the 20-point deficit that Denver had going into the fourth quarter.

If the Nuggets do end up pulling this off, expect a closer game given that they are the weaker team for a reason. However, splitting the opening two games and heading home could bode quite well with Denver’s altitude and general home-court advantage.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 2 Best Bets

Nuggets Moneyline (+250)

WAGER: 2 Units

Take the Nuggets with this plus money coming your way. They are not that far off of the current iteration of the Warriors, where Curry is still returning to form and taking up too much usage, potentially messing up some of the recent chemistry the starting lineup formed.

Under 221.5 Total Points (-110)

WAGER: 2 Units

With the Over hitting by a decent margin of 6.5 points last game, the line has dropped from 223.5 to 221.5 which is curious. There were no injuries suffered in the game, and there is not travel or back-to-back scenario.

My hunch is that with dip in line, we should expect a lower-scoring game, which could bode well for the Nuggets who need to defend better in Game 2. They’ll particularly need to be better against Thompson and Jordan Poole, who combined to go 10-of-17 from three-point range.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 2 Parlay

Best Same-Game Parlay (+1300)

  • Nuggets Moneyline
  • Nikola Jokic: To Record A Triple-Double

WAGER: 1 Unit

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 2 SGP

Jokic had a double-double last game and is almost a guarantee for one each night after essentially averaging one for his sixth season in a row. If he manages to hit a triple-double with his usual efficiency from the field bouncing-back, the Nuggets will win.

Jokic only managed 6 assists this past game, but assuming Denver shoots better than 11-of-35 from three-point range, we could see the double-digit mark cracked. The Nuggets will come out with a purpose this game given that a 2-0 deficit is a death sentence when the opposing team is getting an active, healthy Curry.

The Denver Nuggets head to battle the Golden State Warriors in what should be a long and entertaining series between two of the better Western Conference teams these past few seasons.

Nikola Jokic’s ascendance to MVP-level superstardom has helped elevate what should’ve been a fringe-playoff roster to legitimate contenders in the West, while the Warriors need no explanation as to how they once again found themselves toward the top of the standings.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 1 Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, April 16, at 3 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Warriors (-270), Nuggets (+220)
  • Spread: Warriors -6.5 (-110), Nuggets +6.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 223.5 (-110) / Under 223.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Warriors 115, Nuggets 108.5

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 1 Prediction

Stephen Curry will return for Game 1 of this series, and he claims to be healthy enough to play despite dealing with lingering pain. The Warriors are rightful favorites in Game 1 and should come out firing against a Nuggets team that doesn’t come close to their starpower or pedigree.

While I still prefer the Nuggets in this series, Game 1 should lean in favor of Golden State. Curry’s gravity alone will improve the offense and keep Denver on their toes. However, the inherent risk is not only re-injury, but diminished play if the pain remains severe in his foot.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 1 Score Pick

Warriors 115, Nuggets 110

As stated, Curry’s return will boost Golden State’s offense due to the attention he will demand. The Nuggets will presume Curry’s effectiveness despite a seemingly severe foot injury that caused him to miss the last month of basketball.

The expectation should be that plenty of Warriors are left open as Curry runs the offense, but the rest of the series could very well will be determined by Curry’s health.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 1 Best Bets

Nuggets Cover -6.5 Spread (-110)

WAGER: 2 Units

Regardless of who I believe wins this game, 6.5 points is a lot for a team that won the season series 3-1. Denver — and more specifically, Jokic — will enforce themselves.

Golden State will be hard-pressed to go big to counter him, limiting their abilities and forcing them to lose some spacing. This means much more Kevon Looney than they’d like, and that should hold true in every game aside from those in which Jokic finds himself in foul trouble.

OVER 223.5 Points (-110)

WAGER: 2 Units

The Warriors and Nuggets crossed this total in half of the games they played together, however, both times came after Klay Thompson’s return to the Warriors lineup, and the one other Under was a total of 215 in a game without Draymond Green and Will Barton.

These two teams will score against one another at a high clip regardless of “playoff defenses” tightening things up. The Warriors ranked 11th in offensive rating from the date of Thompson’s return (January 9) to Steph Curry’s injury (March 16), while the Nuggets ranked sixth in said rating this season.

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 1 Parlay

Best Same-Game Parlay (+162)

  • Warriors Moneyline (-270)
  • OVER 223.5 Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 unit

Warriors vs Nuggets Game 1 SGP

If the Warriors win, it will take a lot of scoring to do so. The Nuggets’ offense was better all season, even while Curry and Thompson were healthy.

The Over is the easier bet to stomach here even with the Warriors as heavy favorites, but you should be confident in laying both together as to maximize profit.

The Nuggets and Warriors meet up in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs without either requiring a play-in game. Both teams are relatively healthy, but Stephen Curry (foot) remains a massive question mark. He is reportedly on-track for Game 1, but the pain is lingering and could be an impediment.

Denver has the benefit of a healthy 2022 roster but will not receive the services of star PG Jamal Murray or 2021 breakout Michael Porter Jr. at any point in the playoffs. Both teams have their share of issues but remain strong contenders to come out of the West given how thin the field is this season.

Warriors vs Nuggets Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Friday, April 15, at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Series Winner: Nuggets (+220), Warriors (-260)

NBA Sportsbook Play of the Day

Slam home your basketball bets with BetMGM’s welcome offer: New BetMGM Sportsbook customers can bet $10 to win $200 in free bets.

Make a $10 moneyline bet on any game. If either team makes a three-point basket, you’ll win!

🏀 NBA Bet $10, Win $200: .

Read Anthony Cervino’s hands-on BetMGM Sportsbook review to learn more.

Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction

Denver bested Golden State 3-1 in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different monster. Golden State has recent history on their side, while Denver has the MVP. This battle will not be won easily given that Curry hasn’t seen the floor since mid-March.

If Curry were fully healthy, this would be a clean sweep given Golden State’s continuity and star-power. But with Nikola Jokic — the clear MVP — Denver will be difficult to stop.

The Nuggets are a cohesive team that rely on everyone playing a certain role (aside from Jokic, the centerpiece). Their ability to concentrate the offenses through different valves each game such as Aaron Gordon, Monte Morris, Will Barton, and even rookie Bones Hyland makes it difficult for teams to gameplan.

Warriors vs Nuggets Series Pick

Nuggets in 7 games

Denver has the advantage necessary to beat a Warriors team that is light on big men. Draymond Green and Kevon Looney are fantastic defenders in their own right, but Jokic’s frame is too much for either versatile big to handle.

Golden State has its fair share of scoring options, but the offense as a whole was mediocre this year as they ranked 17th in offensive rating. This is due to the absences of Thompson and Curry throughout the year, but neither is fully healthy entering the postseason.

Denver ranked sixth in offensive rating without their best shooters in Murray and Porter Jr. while a respectable 15th in defensive rating. Their defensive deficiencies will not harm them as Golden State’s perimeter shooting can be stymied by their plethora of guards/wings.

Warriors vs Nuggets Best Bets

Nuggets to Win Series (+220)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Yes, the Warriors are a better team in theory, but they have so many misfit pieces and don’t quite match up well against a team with a big as dominant as Denver’s. This is, of course, only due to the injuries to Klay Thompson and Curry. Neither player will be their typical selves in this series.

Klay’s return from his injuries is impressive, but he is more of a negative on defense and his offensive game is below par. Curry was in MVP form prior to his foot injury, but there is no guarantee he plays up to snuff in this series, let alone stays healthy.

Total Number of Games: 7 (+190)

WAGER: 0.5 Units

This series is a war of attrition. Denver did win the season series 3-1, but the point differential was zero. These games, with proper rest, will be one of the best playoff series we’ll see given the star power and matchup advantages each team has.

It’s curious that a seven-game series has worse odds than five or six games. I believe that this is queued up as a deep series, where the winner will be decided by whichever team remains healthiest.


Kev Mahserejian

Kev Mahserejian is an NFL/NBA/MLB analyst at The Game Day, residing in Los Angeles, CA. He graduated from the University of Southern California in 2017 and began creating sports content soon after. Kev currently writes fantasy and betting pieces while also hosting his podcast The Operating Room with various guests from the sports industry to discuss topics primarily regarding fantasy. He also writes for RotoBaller and is quite active on his Twitter @RotoSurgeon.

Related articles


Get $1,500 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets or First Bet Safety Net

5 stars

Bet $10, Get $200 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Get A Bonus Bet Up to $1,000

5 stars

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Get Up To $250 Second Chance Bonus Bet

5 stars

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY).

Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI).

All betting content on is exclusively intended for audience members 21 years and older who are permitted to gamble in legal states. The Game Day may earn revenue from site visitor referrals to betting services.

Responsible Gaming: Many sportsbooks offer ways to encourage responsible gaming, including the establishment of limits to deposits, spending, and time dedicated to betting.

The Game Day is a TGD Marketing Ltd. endeavor.