Knicks vs Heat Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: May 11, 2023

The Miami Heat are still one win away from clinching a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals, but they’re also a loss away from a pressure-packed Game 7 in New York.

Let’s get into some Knicks vs Heat best bets for Game 6.

Knicks vs Heat Game 6 Odds

NBA odds used for these best bets are current as of Thursday, May 11, at 5 p.m. ET and were found at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Heat (-210) • Knicks (+180)
  • Spread: Heat -5.5 (-110) • Knicks +5.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 208.5 (-110) • Under 208.5 (-110)

Knicks vs Heat Game 6 Prediction

Knicks 99, Heat 94

New York’s rebounding returned in Game 5, and some three-point shots finally fell as they knocked down 38.2% of their looks from deep.

Using the large sample of an 82-game season, we know the Knicks — who ranked second in rebounding rate — are going to out-rebound a team ranked in the bottom 10 of the league more times than not. We also know they’re going to shoot better than the sub-30% three-point percentage we’ve seen.

With that said, I don’t view a Game 5 win as a fluke. The Knicks have the tools to win this series and win this game, and I think they’ll get the job done on the road in Game 6.

Tap into even more of our Eastern Conference Semifinals coverage:

Knicks vs Heat Game 6 Best Bets

Knicks +5.5 (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

I do believe the Knicks are just as good — if not better — than the Heat. In turn, I think this is a terrible line.

The Knicks were 19-14-1 against the spread this year as road underdogs and, as covered above, are an excellent rebounding team. Because of that, it’s easy to write Games 3 and 4 off as outliers.

We can expect the Knicks to win the battle on the glass against this team more times than not, and that was far and away the biggest reason why they didn’t fare better in the two losses in Miami.

Heading back there, I think New York can at least cover this spread. It was 30-20-2 ATS after a win this season. There aren’t this many points between the two of these teams, even on the road, making this my NBA bet of the day.

Knicks vs Heat Game 5

  • Prediction: Knicks 99, Heat 90
  • Result: Knicks 112, Heat 103

Knicks vs Heat Game 4

  • Prediction: Heat 96, Knicks 88
  • Result: Heat 109, Knicks 101

Knicks vs Heat Game 3

  • Prediction: Knicks 102, Heat 100
  • Result: Heat 105, Knicks 86

Knicks vs Heat Game 2

  • Prediction: Knicks 98, Heat 95
  • Result: Knicks 111, Heat 105

Knicks vs Heat Game 1

  • Prediction: Knicks 97, Heat 89
  • Result: Heat 108, Knicks 101

Knicks vs Heat Series Preview

The Knicks successfully dispatched the Cavaliers in the first round and have their sights set on the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

The renewed rivalry wasn’t exactly expected with Miami going up against Milwaukee — the favorite to win it all — in the opening round, but Jimmy Butler‘s level of production was enough to get the team through.

Will Butler’s play continue through the second round? Let’s break it down in our Knicks vs Heat series predictions.

Knicks vs Heat Series Odds

To Win Series: Knicks (-158) • Heat (+134)

I’m not really too surprised to see the Knicks favored, and I’d argue the gap is a bit wider than the odds show.

The recency bias has likely made the Heat more involved in the conversation to reach the Eastern Conference Finals than they really should be. Miami was 1-3 against New York during the regular season and leaned heavily on Butler to get through the Bucks.

NBA odds used for this series betting section are current as of Saturday, April 29, at 1 p.m. ET and were found at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Knicks vs Heat Series Prediction

Knicks Win 4-1

I’ve been screaming from the rooftops about rebounding for weeks now, and I will continue to do it until people heed my message.

The fact of the matter is that in the playoffs, dominating the glass is one of the most significant edges you can have, with shooting leveling out at this stage in the season.

The stakes and pressure of the postseason will also have you in many closer games with players tightening up, so rebounds can make a giant difference down the stretch in those contests.

The Knicks shellacked the Cavaliers on the glass in their opening-round series, which was by far the biggest reason they were able to move past them. They’re the second-best rebounding team in the league by the numbers, and that’s remained true in the playoffs, with New York grabbing 54.9% of available boards.

Miami was 18th in rebounding during the regular season and posted just a 48.4% rebounding rate in its opening-round series. New York should continue to outwork its opponent inside and win this before it gets to a potential Game 7 in New York.

Knicks vs Heat Series Best Bets

Knicks -2.5 Games (+260) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Knicks decisively out-rebounded Miami in three of the four games they played during the regular season, and as I’ve touched on, have won the battle of attrition inside for the last few weeks. For this reason, I see them as the better team in this series.

Josh Hart’s best defensive matchup this season happened to be against Butler, limiting him to 27.3% shooting as the primary defender in 106 possessions. It also happened to be Butler’s worst matchup.

This is something I’m going to be watching closely. Without Butler, the Heat have had little going for them on offense.

Julius Randle is also trending in the right direction and should be able to go in this series if his questionable tag ahead of Game 1 is any indication, which makes me lean toward the Knicks even more.

New York will open up with home-court advantage in this one, and it’s looked incredible at Madison Square Garden this postseason.

The Knicks were one of the stronger teams on the road this year as well, and if they’re able to take the first two of this series as I expect and one on the road, this could very well end in a potential Game 5 at The Garden.

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