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Celtics vs Heat Prop Bets

Last Updated: May 28, 2023

Jimmy Butler‘s woeful shooting performance meant that I missed on his points prop, but I did cash on the Boston Celtics’ first-quarter spread and Marcus Smart‘s three-pointers at (+170) odds. Game 6 was stressful, but it was also profitable, so I’ll take it.

With Game 7 approaching on Monday and the Miami Heat trying to avoid becoming the first team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead, I’m looking forward to making a few more prop wagers.

Here are my best prop bets for Celtics vs Heat Game 7.

Celtics vs Heat Game 7 Player Prop Odds

Use our NBA odds to locate the best ways to bet on playoff prop bets:

Celtics vs Heat Game 7 Player Props

Caleb Martin: Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (+140) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Martin has had a phenomenal series for the Heat, and the Celtics still don’t appear to have an answer for him. The 27-year-old undrafted wing is averaging 18.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game in this series while shooting 58.3% from the field and 46.2% from three-point range.

That last bit is what I’ll be targeting in Game 7. Martin has hit at least three three-pointers in four of six games thus far, and he sank two apiece in the two games in which he went Under this total.

The volume has certainly been there, as Martin has attempted no less than five threes in a single game against Boston. And seeing as how he played such a significant role in Game 6 (21 points, 15 rebounds, 4-of-8 3PT), Miami will likely look to feed him plenty more good looks in Game 7.

Back Martin to hit the Over on this prop once again with your NBA bet of the day.

Jayson Tatum: Over 42.5 Points + Rebounds (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

When we last saw Tatum in a Game 7, he logged 51 points and 13 rebounds in Boston’s decisive 112-88 win over the Philadelphia 76ers roughly two weeks ago. His total for Monday night’s contest has been set at 42.5, which feels favorable.

Tatum had 43 combined points and rebounds in Game 6, and he’s surpassed this total in two other games this series. Throughout the playoffs as a whole, he’s averaged 27.8 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, which comes in slightly below this number.

However, with this being a Game 7, I don’t expect Tatum to back down. Not only should he see more than his usual supply of shots, but he’s often found himself in the perfect position to come up with plenty of rebounds as well.

Celtics vs Heat Game 7 Team Props

Heat: Over 97.5 Points (-115) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

This line just feels disrespectful. While it’s true that the Heat are averaging just 99.7 points per game over their last three, we need to consider what they’ve accomplished on offense in this series as a whole.

On top of that, Butler and Bam Adebayo went just 9-of-37 from the field in Game 6, and Miami still scored 103 points. They’re both due for some positive regression, and the Heat are as well after going 19-for-63 from inside the three-point line on Saturday night.


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Win or lose, asking Miami to score 98 or more points feels like a freebie. Despite the fact that the Heat ranked dead-last in points per game during the regular season, they’ve been one of the most efficient offenses in the playoffs.


Celtics vs Heat Game 6 Props Preview

I had the right idea with my prop bets for Game 5 between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat, but the flow of the contest kept me from cashing. A good example: Bam Adebayo needed 18 points to hit the Over on his scoring prop and had 16 entering the fourth quarter, but he didn’t play for the rest of the night.

Unfortunately, these are the punches you simply have to roll with when it comes to prop betting. With that said, I’m feeling extremely confident about what I have in store for Saturday’s action in Miami.

Here are my best prop bets for Celtics vs Heat Game 6.

Celtics vs Heat Game 6 Player Prop Odds

Use our NBA odds to locate the best ways to bet on playoff prop bets:

Celtics vs Heat Game 6 Player Props

Jimmy Butler: 30+ Points (+100) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

This isn’t truly an elimination game for the Heat, but it might as well be. And if Butler’s performance in the final two games of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals — also against the Celtics — is any indication of what we can expect from him here, then we could be in for a real treat.

Down 3-2 entering Game 6, Butler erupted for 47 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, and four steals in an eight-point Miami victory. Then, in Game 7, Butler followed up with 35 points and nine rebounds in a four-point defeat.

Butler’s usage should skyrocket in Game 6 (and potentially Game 7, should Boston win Saturday), and after resting for all but two minutes of the fourth quarter of Game 5, it wouldn’t shock me to see Butler log a series-high in time on the court.

The high stakes and usage rate make this look like a prime spot for Butler to have a classic performance, making this my NBA bet of the day.

Marcus Smart: Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (+170) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Smart has quietly been a central part of Boston’s comeback in this series, and a good chunk of what he’s offered has come from the three-point line. After going 3-for-9 from deep in Game 4, Smart turned in an even more efficient 4-of-6 outing in Game 5.

While he’s not necessarily known for his three-point shooting ability or volume (hence these +170 odds), this actually isn’t some massive longshot. Smart has met this mark in seven of his 18 playoff games, and he’s come within a make of doing so in another five.

Smart has also attempted at least five three-pointers in 10 of 18 games, so the volume has been there for a large portion of the postseason.

With the Miami defense focused on containing Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, this could be a favorable spot to back Smart.

Celtics vs Heat Game 6 Team Props

Celtics: 1Q -0.5 (-115) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Celtics dominated the Heat in the first quarter of Game 5, 35-20. If they’re to win Game 6 on the road, they’ll want to set the tone early and come out strong again in the opening frame.

This isn’t some new trend for Boston, either. It’s led the league in first-quarter scoring margin this year at +2.6 points, while Miami comes in at No. 20 with a -0.4 margin.

All the Celtics need to do is win the first by one point for this prop to cash. They’ve done that in three out of five games this series, so the odds are in our favor.


Celtics vs Heat Game 5 Props Preview

Jayson Tatum finally stepped up and delivered a big performance in Game 4, finishing with 33 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists in the Boston Celtics’ first win of the series. On the Miami Heat side, Jimmy Butler had another strong showing, notching 29 points in the loss.

With Game 5 approaching on Thursday night, there’s no shortage of great prop bets available for us to make.

Let’s get into my best props for Celtics vs Heat Game 5.

Celtics vs Heat Game 5 Player Prop Odds

Use our NBA odds to locate the best ways to bet on playoff prop bets:

Celtics vs Heat Game 5 Player Props

Bam Adebayo: Over 17.5 Points (-115) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Adebayo had a down night in Game 4 in what was perhaps his worst showing of these playoffs, logging just 10 points, five rebounds, four turnovers, and four fouls. His success is extremely vital for the Heat, and if his recent track record is an indication of what’s to come, then Game 5 could be a huge one for him.

The 25-year-old big was spectacular in the first two games of the series, averaging 21.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 7.0 assists on the road. Overall, he’s logging 17.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists over the course of the postseason.

After taking just seven field goal attempts in Game 4, I’m expecting Miami to look to get Adebayo going early on Thursday night. That should translate to him getting easy buckets in the paint and cashing the Over at 17.5 points — a mark he’s met in eight of his 15 playoff games.

Lock in this pick with your NBA bet of the day.

Jayson Tatum: Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (+125) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Tatum and the Celtics have largely struggled with the outside shot in this series, but everything turned around in Game 4. Boston’s superstar wing went 4-of-9 from range, guiding the Celtics to an efficient 18-of-45 shooting display in what was easily their best showing of the Eastern Conference Finals.

It was just the first time that Tatum had gone Over 3.5 made three-pointers in this series, but he’s been no stranger to the feat throughout the playoffs, meeting this mark in eight of his 17 appearances thus far.

After getting some positive momentum going in Game 4, I like Tatum to have another strong outing from deep in Game 5. Given the circumstances, it’s hard not to like this prop at such favorable odds.

Celtics vs Heat Game 5 Team Props

Heat: Over 103.5 Points (-120) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

This is my third time playing this prop, and if it hits, it’ll be my third win as well. Miami’s offense has been criminally undervalued in this series, and despite the fact that the Heat are averaging over 115 points per game against the Celtics, we can get them to score Over 103.5 points at (-120).

Yes, Miami did just score 99 points in Game 4. But they also had their worst three-point shooting performance of the series on Tuesday night, and it’s unlikely that we see such a weak showing again in Game 5.

The Heat easily surpassed this mark in each of their first two games in Boston, and I fully expect them to accomplish the feat again.


Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Props Preview

Jimmy Butler didn’t spend enough time on the floor to cash his points, rebounds, and assists prop, and Jayson Tatum fell flat on his face with a lackluster performance in Game 3.

With Game 4 coming up on Tuesday night, I’m taking a slightly different approach with my recommended prop bets.

Here are my best prop bets for Game 4 between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.

Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Player Prop Odds

Use our NBA odds to locate the best ways to bet on playoff prop bets:

Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Player Props

Jayson Tatum: Under 30.5 Points (-120) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

Tatum had one of his worst performances of the playoffs in Game 3, scoring just 14 points on 6-of-18 shooting from the field. Often settling for contested jumpers and three-pointers early in the shot clock, the 25-year-old’s overall lack of effort was pretty disheartening.

With virtually no path remaining for the Celtics to win this series, do we really expect Tatum to come out and have a big performance in Game 4? Nothing is going right for Boston right now, and Miami deserves plenty of credit for making things difficult.

Tatum and the Celtics have no fight, and Joe Mazzulla has proven to be a poor motivator in his playoffs debut. If his Game 3 performance is any indication of what we can expect from Tatum moving forward, then the Under at 30.5 points is the move.

Lock in this pick with your NBA bet of the day.

Gabe Vincent: Over 11.5 Points (-125) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Plenty of relatively unknown players are getting their time to shine in the Eastern Conference Finals, and that includes Vincent, a fourth-year guard who led Game 3 in scoring with 29 points.

Vincent isn’t a household name by any means, but he’s become quite accustomed to having standout showings in the playoffs. Sunday night’s action marked his fourth game with at least 20 points, bringing his average up to 12.9 points per game and 17.7 against the Celtics.

He needs just 12 to clear the bar in Game 4, and that’s something he could accomplish whether it’s a close contest or not. Vincent spent seven minutes on the floor in the fourth quarter of Game 3, when the Heat led by no less than 21 points.

Celtics vs Heat Game 4 Team Props

Heat: Win By 6+ Points (+155) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Heat have accomplished this feat in all three games of the series thus far, winning by an average margin of 13 points. Despite that, we can still get in on this bet at (+155) odds.

Boston looks defeated, and Miami isn’t going to blow an opportunity to pull off the sweep on its home floor. A win by six points or more should be well within reach.


Celtics vs Heat Game 3 Props Preview

Jimmy Butler came in just shy of 28.5 points and Jaylen Brown couldn’t get things going from three-point range, but I still had a solid night thanks to my two-unit wager on the Heat to score Over 102.5 points in Game 2.

With Game 3 on the horizon and the series heading to Miami for the first time, I have three more prop bets to recommend ahead of Sunday night’s action.

Here are my best prop bets for Celtics vs Heat Game 3.

Celtics vs Heat Game 3 Player Prop Odds

Use our NBA odds to locate the best ways to bet on playoff prop bets:

Celtics vs Heat Game 3 Player Props

Jimmy Butler: Over 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

It’s clear that Butler is simply going to get his no matter what. The 33-year-old superstar has arguably been the best player in the postseason thus far, and he’s played his very best basketball at home.

Through five games in Miami, Butler is averaging 33 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists — or a combined average of 44 points, rebounds, and assists. That’s more than enough to get him Over this 41.5 line.

Butler has also logged at least 41 combined points, rebounds, and assists in his first two games against Boston, so it won’t take much more of an effort from him to clear this line in Game 3.

Look for Butler to do a little bit of everything on Sunday night and make this your NBA bet of the day.

Jayson Tatum: Over 30.5 Points (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Despite the disappearing act Tatum has been playing in the fourth quarter of this series, he’s actually been quite productive overall. After logging 30 points in Game 1, Tatum followed up with a 34-point effort in Game 2.

He is only averaging 28.3 per game in the playoffs, and he’s hit the Over at this number in just five out of his 15 games. However, when he goes Over, he tends to go way Over, scoring as many as 51 points in a single game these playoffs.

The burden is on Tatum and the Celtics to step it up in Game 3, and as long as he submits a performance that’s even slightly above average, he should clear this number with ease.

Celtics vs Heat Game 3 Team Props

Heat: Over 105.5 Points (-120) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

I played this prop in Game 2 when the line was set at just 102.5 points. Things weren’t looking great for much of the night, but then Miami turned in a 36-point effort in the final frame, finishing with 111.

Once again, this bet feels like a no-brainer. The Heat are averaging 117 points per game in this series, and overall, they’ve surpassed this number in nine out of 13 playoff games.

I’m not willing to wager more than one unit this time, but I fully expect Miami to finish in the ballpark of 110+ points.


Celtics vs Heat Game 2 Props Preview

After a shocking result in Game 1 that saw the Miami Heat defeat the Boston Celtics on the road, we’re looking ahead to Friday night’s Game 2.

I won two of my three recommended bets for Game 1, with Jayson Tatum hitting the Over on his points prop and Jimmy Butler crushing the 40.5-digit mark that was set for his combined points, rebounds, and assists.

Let’s see if I can stay on top as we get into my best prop bets for Game 2 between the Celtics and Heat.

Celtics vs Heat Game 2 Player Prop Odds

Use our NBA odds to locate the best ways to bet on playoff prop bets:

Celtics vs Heat Game 2 Player Props

Jimmy Butler: Over 28.5 Points (-115) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Butler dominated the Celtics in Game 1 to the tune of 35 points, 20 of which came in the second half alone. And although this performance was tied for his third-highest scoring in the playoffs so far, I’m expecting more of the same from him moving forward.

Butler was relatively quiet in terms of scoring against the Knicks in the second round, averaging 24.6 points per game. The slow pace is partially to blame here, as he was attempting just 17.6 field goals per game compared to the 23.8 he averaged against the Bucks in the first round.

Not only was the pace of Game 1 more akin to what we saw in Miami’s series with Milwaukee, but Butler also put up 25 shots on Boston, which is right on target with what we saw from him in the opening round.

Additionally, DraftKings is offering this prop for the same price as Butler to score 30-plus points, giving us a free point by taking the Over at 28.5. With that in mind, I’m making this my NBA bet of the day.

Jaylen Brown: Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (+100) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Boston had a dreadful showing from three-point range in Game 1, going just 10-for-29 from beyond the arc. In doing so, the Celtics tied their postseason low in makes and logged their second-worst percentage (34.5%) against a team that allowed 13.1 per game during the regular season.

Brown went 1-for-6 from deep in the effort, and that’s not something I would expect him to repeat moving forward. He’s been Boston’s most efficient outside shooter in the playoffs (34-for-76, 44.7%), and he’s hit the Over at this number in eight of his 14 postseason appearances thus far.

Celtics vs Heat Game 2 Team Props

Heat: Over 102.5 Points (-125) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

This line is inexplicably low. Yes, the Heat ranked dead-last in points per game during the regular season, but they’re No. 3 in offensive rating during the playoffs, and they just dropped 123 on the Celtics in Game 1.

It’s not like that performance was a major outlier, either. Miami wasn’t scoring nearly as many points against the Knicks in the second round due to the slower pace, but even then, the Heat still averaged 104.3 per game.

Miami has played 12 playoff games so far and has hit the Over at this number in 11 of them. If you’re only looking to make one prop bet for Game 2, make it this one — and hammer it hard.


Celtics vs Heat Game 1 Props Preview

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will begin this Wednesday, May 17, at 8:30 p.m. ET. The series figures to be tightly contested and will feature some of the brightest stars in the game, including Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at my favorite prop bets we can make ahead of Wednesday’s action between the Celtics and Heat.

Celtics vs Heat Game 1 Player Prop Odds

Use our NBA odds to locate the best ways to bet on playoff prop bets:

Celtics vs Heat Game 1 Player Props

Jayson Tatum: Over 29.5 Points (-115) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Tatum had a field day with the Heat during the regular season, averaging 30.8 points across four meetings and scoring as many as 49 in a single game. He’s also coming off of a 51-point performance in Boston’s Game 7 win over the 76ers.

While that massive performance looks like an outlier at the moment, I wouldn’t write off the impact that it could have on Tatum moving forward. It’s true that he’s hit the Over at this number in just five of his 13 playoff games this season, but after that kind of showing, he may not fall back to the same floor.

Fatigue could certainly play a role here, but I’m expecting Tatum to be aggressive with his shot and hit with relative efficiency. This is a big opportunity for the Celtics to take control of this series, and I don’t believe that Tatum will let that slip by, making this my NBA bet of the day.

Jimmy Butler: Over 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Butler has done it all for the Heat this postseason, averaging 31.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists through 10 games. He’s hit the Over at this number on points alone twice, and he’s done it otherwise another two times.

With the stakes rising in this series and a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, we should see Butler at his absolute best moving forward. That means stuffing the stat sheet and scoring at will, which translates to several more Overs hitting in this category.

Butler and the Heat understand the importance of stealing a win in Game 1. Whether that happens or not, I expect Butler to leave it all on the floor and eclipse 40.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists.

Celtics vs Heat Game 1 Team Props

Heat: First-Half Moneyline (+200) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

If Miami’s rest advantage shows up in Game 1, it’ll be during the first half. Butler and the Heat have fresh legs, while the Celtics just went the distance with Philadelphia.

I also believe that Erik Spoelstra has been the best coach in the playoffs thus far, and his teams have been in this position before. Miami will be well-prepared, and assuming it can execute as well as we’ve seen so far, there’s a good chance this team will have the upper hand going into the break.

Author

Garrett Chorpenning

Garrett Chorpenning is the Lead NBA Editor for The Game Day. His previous work includes covering the LA Clippers for Sports Illustrated and FanSided. He graduated from Ball State University in 2021.

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