After taking a 3-2 series lead, the Houston Astros will host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park this Saturday.
It is a win-or-go-home contest for Philadelphia, who have had a remarkable postseason run. However, Justin Verlander’s strong performance in Game 5 moved Houston one win away from the championship.
The probable pitching matchup for Game 6 is Phillies ace Zack Wheeler facing off against Astros southpaw Framber Valdez.
Let’s look at current betting odds and determine the best bets and props for Game 6 between the Phillies and Astros.
Phillies vs Astros Game 6 Odds
Per these World Series odds, the Astros are listed as a massive favorite in Game 6, despite Wheeler being on the mound for the Phillies.
Valdez may have outpitched the Phillies right-hander in their lone starts this series, but -148 on FanDuel seems a bit egregious at first glance.
That said, Wheeler did not seem like himself during the last start, and there is some worry about him wearing down.
The smart money may be on Houston to win, but the run line may be the better bet for Game 6.
Phillies vs Astros Game 6 Prediction
Astros 4, Phillies 2
Wheeler has been brilliant at times this postseason, collecting two scoreless outings while holding the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, and San Diego Padres to a combined five runs over 25 1/3 innings. However, the 32-year-old has also stumbled, allowing five runs (four earned) to the Astros in Game 2 of the World Series.
This postseason has presented an unorthodox schedule at the end of a long season, which could be making things difficult for some starting pitchers.
There has been some worry about Wheeler breaking down after a noticeable drop in velocity, but manager Rob Thompson blames a quick ramp-up from the right-hander’s latest stint on the IL.
The Phillies feel that extra rest is all that Wheeler needs to get back on track, but it is impossible to ignore the possibility that he may not be.
On the other side, Valdez will get the ball for Houston after tossing 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in Game 2.
The ground ball machine posted a 2.82 ERA in the regular season over 201 1/3 innings and carried that form into the playoffs, posting a 1.42 ERA over 19 frames.
There was some speculation that Valdez may have been using a foreign substance during his Game 2 performance, which was made more suspicious by the left-hander changing gloves in the dugout.
However, nothing came from the accusation, and there is little reason to doubt the southpaws’ ability to turn in a winning performance in Game 6 for the Astros.
I predict Houston will win the World Series at home by defeating the Phillies in Game 6 on Saturday.
Phillies vs Astros Game 6 Best Bet
WS Game 5 odds posted are as of Friday, Nov. 4, at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted.
Astros Cover -1.5 Runs (+155)
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, I expect the Astros to win Game 6. Wheeler’s current form does worry me a bit, and teams with a 3-2 series lead have a 21-8 record at home in the World Series.
I expect Valdez to turn in a strong performance and then hand the ball off to one of the finest bullpens in MLB history.
Phillies vs Astros Game 6 Props
Framber Valdez: Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Astros southpaw has struck out nine batters in back-to-back postseason starts, including Game 2 against the Phillies. I like Valdez to keep the strikeout streak alive and hit the Over on 6.5 punchouts in Game 6.
If looking to make a wager on the first inning, check out our NRFI prop bet page.
