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Phillies vs Astros Game 1 Predictions | World Series 2022

Matt WilliamsDigital Content Coordinator
Posted: Oct 28, 2022Last updated: Oct 29, 2022

The Houston Astros are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the 2022 World Series on Friday. After a pair of efficient victories in the ALCS and NLCS, each team will have four days off heading into the game. This will allow plenty of time to reset starting rotations and rest bullpen arms.

As of now, starting pitchers are “to be determined" for Game 1, but it seems likely that Justin Verlander, the AL Cy Young favorite, will get the ball for the Astros against Aaron Nola for the Phillies

Let’s look at current betting odds and determine the best bets and props for Game 1 between the Phillies and Astros.

Phillies vs Astros Game 1 Odds

As of Monday, the Astros are listed as a heavy favorite on FanDuel (-164) at home against the Phillies.

For full series betting options, please visit our World Series Odds and Predictions page and World Series MVP page.

Phillies vs Astros Game 1 Prediction

Phillies 3, Astros 2

Game 1 has the potential to be an incredible pitcher’s duel between Nola and Verlander.

The Phillies right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in the playoffs over 17 1/3 innings. During the regular season, Nola posted a 3.25 ERA, 2.58 FIP, and 0.96 WHIP over 205 frames with 235 strikeouts. However, the 29-year-old did get rocked by the Padres during the NLDS, allowing six runs over 4 2/3 innings after tossing back-to-back scoreless outings against the Cardinals and Braves.

No Astros hitter has more than eight career at-bats against the 29-year-old, so there is not much data to break down in terms of head-to-head matchups.

On the other side, Verlander (1-0 6.30 ERA this postseason) posted an 18-4 record this season with a 1.75 ERA, in what will likely result in his third Cy Young award. However, the future Hall of Famer is 15-11 with a 3.55 ERA during the postseason in his career across 33 games, with a 0-6 record and 5.68 ERA during the World Series.

The only hitters in the current Phillies lineup with more than five at-bats against Verlander are Jean Segura (4-for-14) and Nick Castellanos (1-for-8), so there is little to go by in terms of track record.

This is a difficult matchup to gauge, especially with the Astros at home, with an overall superior team. However, it is also difficult to ignore Verlander’s previous hiccups in the Fall Classic. That said, I am going to pick Philadelphia to win Game 1 in a nail-biter.

Phillies vs Astros Game 1 Best Bet

Phillies Moneyline (+146) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Odds posted are as of Oct. 27 at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

It is difficult to find +146 in a pitcher’s duel between teams with no clear advantage offensively.

I could easily see Verlander turning in a marquee game, but given past results and the current betting market, Philadelphia seems like the play here. It should be an exciting game.

Phillies vs Astros Game 1 Props

Aaron Nola: Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Odds posted are as of Oct. 27 at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

While I expect Nola to turn in a good performance in Game 1, the Astros are one of the most difficult teams to strike out this season. In fact, they carried the 2nd-lowest K rate in MLB at 19.5%.

Nola has collected exactly six strikeouts in each of his three postseason starts this year, but I am betting on the right-hander falling short on Friday.

World Series Props 2022

Author

Matt Williams

Matt Williams is a Digital Content Coordinator with The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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