Welcome to the Wednesday MLB slate, where we have a packed 14-game schedule to choose from.
There are seven contests during the afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled at 1:10 p.m. ET between the Texas Rangers and the Detroit Tigers.
Let’s dive in and check out my favorite MLB best bets for Wednesday, May 31.
All MLB gameday odds are current as of May 30, at 11 p.m. ET, from the indicated sportsbook.
Matt Williams 2023 MLB Betting Record: 260-229-10 (+52.57 units)
MLB Best Bet Odds Today
Below are the latest odds for today’s MLB action.
You can then find Matt Williams’ MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, May 31.
MLB Best Bets Today
Nationals +1.5 F5 (-112) • FanDuel Sportsbook
Nationals @ Dodgers • WAGER: 1 Unit
You do not often find this kind of pricing for a team in the first five innings. To get a full run and a half at -120 or better would make me consider any team, let alone one with a puncher’s chance to succeed.
On Wednesday, we have an anti-pitchers duel when Patrick Corbin (4.88 ERA) takes on Noah Syndergaard (6.27 ERA) in Los Angeles. The two starters sport less-than-impressive surface stats this season.
However, the Nationals southpaw has shown encouraging signs of improvement.
From April 16 to May 20, Corbin posted a 3.40 ERA and 3.92 FIP over seven starts with a 46.9% groundball rate. However, the veteran did get demolished in his latest outing versus the Kansas City Royals, allowing six runs over 6.1 innings.
The good news for Corbin is that his opponent has been even worse this season.
Syndergaard is having a dreadful campaign, carrying a 5.23 xERA and a .294 batting average against in 10 starts. If there was ever a reason to back Corbin in a tough matchup, it’s against Syndergaard.
I do not expect this game to be pretty, but given the market, I am backing the Nationals to cover +1.5 in the first five innings in our MLB bet of the day.
Under 8.5 (-103) • BetRivers Sportsbook
Padres @ Marlins • WAGER: 1 Unit
Blake Snell will take the mound for the San Diego Padres on Wednesday. The left-hander is having a rough season so far (4.89 SIERA) but has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts.
The 30-year-old will take on a Marlins team carrying a .318 xwOBA against southpaws over the last 30 days and a 6.3% walk rate this season.
- If you are searching for player props, head to our MLB prop bets page to bet on home runs, strikeouts, and more.
Conversely, the Marlins will send left-hander Braxton Garrett to the hill. The 25-year-old carries a 4.03 FIP and 3.79 SIERA over 10 outings and squares off against a Padres lineup that has produced a below-average 99 wRC+ over the last two weeks with a .314 wOBA.
I do not anticipate a pitcher’s duel by any means, but I expect each starting pitcher to turn over a reasonable score to a pair of bullpens that have been rock solid as of late. San Diego boasts a 1.71 bullpen ERA (1.00 WHIP) over the last 14 days, while the Marlins sport a 3.32 ERA during that same time frame.
I project this game total to fall closer to 7.5 than 8.5 in a pitcher’s park, making this a solid play on Wednesday.
Best MLB Moneyline Bets Today
Angels ML (+125) • WynnBet Sportsbook
Angels @ White Sox • WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a good old-fashioned value play with the Angels listed at plus-money in a full game that I expect to be very close.
Jaime Barría takes the mound with a 1.55 ERA over 29 innings with a 2.72 xERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a .181 batting average against. The 26-year-old may not be able to go beyond four or five innings after being limited to the bullpen for much of the season.
Still, the Los Angeles bullpen has been adequate of late, especially compared to the White Sox pen (4.68 SIERA over the last 14 days).
In addition, Chicago has posted a lowly .309 xwOBA versus right-handers over the past month, with a well below-average 82 wRC+ and .291 wOBA over the past two weeks.
- Want to try something different? Check out today’s MLB NRFI pick and place a wager on the first inning only.
Meanwhile, the White Sox will send veteran Lance Lynn to the mound. The right-hander has had a rough season overall (5.83 SIERA) but has pitched well over his last three outings (3.34 FIP).
However, the Angels’ lineup is full of dangerous hitters such as Shohei Ohtani, who is 8-for-18 (.444) with a home run against the 36-year-old. In fact, I recommend Ohtani’s total base prop (Over 1.5 +100) and home run prop (+260) today.
This American League matchup should be closer to a toss-up, making the Angels at +125 a solid investment.
How to Bet MLB Moneylines
Moneyline bets are a simple way of wagering on MLB games. All you need to do is pick the winner of the game, and you’ll win your bet.
The odds are quite easy to understand, too. For example, if the Mets are a (-200) favorite, you would have to bet $20 to win $10. If they’re a (+200) underdog, you can win $20 off a $10 bet.
These odds will change every day depending upon the Mets’ matchup, so there’s always an opportunity for value every step of the way.
How to Bet MLB Run Lines
Run Line betting is another common way to bet on MLB games, and you’re probably already familiar with it. You may know it as how much a team is “picked by" to win.
If the Red Sox are 1.5 run favorites over the Tigers, the Run Line would look something like this: Red Sox -1.5 (-200) vs Tigers +1.5 (+200).
In this scenario, the Red Sox would have to win by more than one run to cash your bet.
How to Bet MLB Over/Unders
If you’re unsure about a team’s moneyline or run line on a given day, you can still place a bet on the Over/Under — or total — in the matchup.
Sportsbooks will set a line for how many combined runs they project will be scored. From there, you can bet on the Over or Under.
For example, if you believe in the Braves offense and think it’ll be a high-scoring game, then you’ll want to take the Over. However, if it’s supposed to be more of a pitcher’s duel, you should go with the Under.
