Japan vs USA Predictions | WBC Finals Odds & Best Bets

Last Updated: Mar 29, 2023

The United States will look to claim back-to-back World Baseball Classic championships when they take on Japan in the WBC final on Tuesday night in Miami.

Team Japan punched their ticket to the final with an emotional walk-off victory over Mexico on Monday night. Meanwhile, Team USA’s offense has been on fire since group play, looking nearly unstoppable against Venezuela and Cuba.

Can the United States defend their WBC crown? Or will Japan be able to capture the championship in South Florida?

Read on to see our Japan vs United States WBC final prediction and best bets.

Japan vs United States Pick of the Day

Read for more WBC Finals betting tips and my full USA vs Japan baseball bet of the day.

Japan vs United States Odds

  • Moneyline: Japan (+105) • United States (-125)
  • Run Line: Japan +1.5 (-145) • United States -1.5 (+122)
  • Total Runs: Over 9.5 (-125) • Under 9.5 (+105)

Japan vs United States odds are current as of March 21, 2023, at 9:40 a.m. ET, on Caesars Sportsbook.

These were two of the favorites in our WBC odds reports before the tournament began. The United States enters the WBC Final as a slight favorite over Japan. In what should be a competitive game, it would be wise to overlook the Run Line.

Japan vs United States Prediction

United States 6, Japan 4

The pitching matchup for the WBC final will be left-hander Shōta Imanaga for Japan against right-hander Merrill Kelly for the United States.

I expect both teams to pull out all of the stops during the final, using every weapon at their disposal.

Kelly allowed two runs on four hits over three innings during his start against Colombia in Group C play.

Meanwhile, Imanaga will be making his first start of the World Baseball Classic. The southpaw has made a pair of relief appearances so far, including striking out a pair in a perfect frame against Italy.

Team USA has the advantage of an extra day’s rest, having defeated Cuba on Sunday in the semifinals.

Japan is coming off a thrilling walk-off victory over Mexico on Monday night and will need to rebound from the emotional game quickly.

In the end, I expect the United States to pull out a win and claim back-to-back WBC championships.

Team USA has scored 23 runs in the two games since group play, and may be too difficult to slow down.

Japan vs United States Best Bet

United States Moneyline (-125) • Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Even though I predict a two-score victory for the United States, I am confident this will be a competitive game.

That said, we are going to skip the run line and bet the moneyline with a straight-up victory for Team USA.


Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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