The San Diego Padres are one game away from shocking the world when they square off against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 2-1 series lead in the NLDS on Saturday, one game away from advancing to the National League Championship Series.
Tyler Anderson (2.57 ERA) will take the mound for Los Angeles while Joe Musgrove (2.93 ERA) gets the start for San Diego.
Let’s look at current betting odds and determine the best bets and props for Game 4 between the Dodgers and Padres.
Dodgers vs Padres Game 4 Odds
The Dodgers are listed as a modest favorite among sportsbooks with the underrated Tyler Anderson on the mound. However, getting a pitcher of Jusgrove’s caliber at +104 seems like a solid value and there could get F5 potential here as well.
Dodgers vs Padres Game 4 Prediction
Dodgers 3, Padres 2
Musgrove is fresh off a brilliant performance in the Wild Card series, holding the New York Mets scoreless over 7 2/3 innings. The 29-year-old carried a 2.93 ERA this season with a 1.08 WHIP.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers will counter with Anderson, who posted a 15-5 record with a 2.57 ERA over 178 2/3 innings. During the southpaws’ latest outing, he allowed two runs over 5 2/3 innings to the Colorado Rockies on Oct. 2. More importantly, Anderson holds a 1,87 ERA and 0.87 WHIP against the Padres this season in 24 frames
Each starter is a decent bet to last deep into the game, which has the makings of a classic (it will naturally be a shootout now).
Dodgers vs Padres Game 4 Best Bet
Dodgers Moneyline (-124) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I expect a close game between these two NL West rivals, but the Dodgers lineup has a slightly better track record against Musgrove than the Padres do against Anderson. Freddie Freeman is slugging .619 against the Padres right-hander, while Max Muncy is slashing .429/.571/.714 over 21 at-bats. In a game built on moments, these matchups could prove to be the difference maker.
Not that I am betting against Musgrove’a ability to come up huge in another elimination game, but someone has to lose and I think this series is going to Game 5 on Sunday.
Dodgers vs Padres Game 4 Props
Max Muncy: Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, Muncy has a strong, albeit limited, track record against Musgrove. The 32-year-old is 4-for-11 with a home run and a double this series and I will bank on his hot bat to stay that way in Game 4.
MLB Division Series Props
Previous: Dodgers vs Padres Game 3 Prediction
Dodgers 4, Padres 3
Tony Gonsolin will make his 2022 postseason debut after going 16-1 this year with 8.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. The 28-year-old has posted 11 quality starts over 24 outings and has lasted at least five innings in 20 of them.
The San Diego lineup does not have much of a sample size against Gonsolin, with Manny Machado leading the way with 11 at-bats.
Meanwhile, Blake Snell is coming off a disappointing showing in the Wild Card round when he allowed two runs over just 3 1/3 innings against the New York Mets due to pitch count and command issues.
The southpaw has thrown 14 frames against Los Angeles this season, allowing six runs on 12 hits with 23 punchouts. However, several of the Dodger’s top hitters have a poor track record against Snell in their career, including Mookie Betts (.231 AVG), Justin Turner (.167 AVG), and Trea Turner (.200 AVG).
I would expect a close game that is decided s once again decided in the late innings.
Dodgers vs Padres Game 3 Best Bet
Under 7.5 Total Runs (-124) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Unlike Game 2, there are no clear outliers when it comes to matchups in this game. Neither batting order has a positive track record versus the opposing starter, and I would expect a pitcher’s duel in Game 3.
Dodgers vs Padres Game 3 Props
2+ Hits Recorded in 1st inning: No (+104) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I expect this game to be somewhat of a pitcher’s duel and +104 feels like a solid price to bet on a slow first inning. This wager also pairs nicely with the Under.
Previous: Padres vs Dodgers Game 2 Prediction
Dodgers 6, Padres 3
Darvish tossed seven innings of one-run ball in the Wild card series against the New York Mets, striking out four. The 36-year-old has had some success against the majority of the current Dodgers lineup, holding Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Will Smith, Cody Bellinger, and Gavin Lux to a .200 batting average of lower.
However, the veteran right-hander has allowed 10 home runs in 10 starts at Dodger Stadium in his career and has been dominated by Freddie Freeman (.318) and Trea Turner (.353).
On the other side, Kershaw has allowed one run over 12 innings versus the Padres this year, but has struggled at times during the postseason in his career. The future Hall of Famer carries a 4.19 ERA in the playoffs, surrendering 28 long balls in 30 starts.
That said, only Manny Machado has enjoyed any kind of sustained success against the southpaw. The Padres’ third baseman is 9-for-35 (.257), while slugging .500 against Kershaw.
I am going to back the Dodgers to take a 2-0 series lead by defeating the Padres on Wednesday, with the expectation that Darvish will stumble during his second start of the postseason.
Padres vs Dodgers Game 2 Best Bet
Over 7 Total Runs (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, I expect the Dodgers to make some waves early against Darvish, while Kershaw has an iffy postseason track record of his own. A run total of seven is rather low, and at -114 I would expect to see the Over hit during Game 2.
Padres vs Dodgers Game 2 Props
Freddie Freeman: 2+ Total Bases (+115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
There is a theme here if you have noticed. I predict that things will not go well for Darvish in Game 2, and Freeman is going to be a big part of that.
The veteran first baseman is slugging .636 against Darvish. He’s batting .338 against right-handed pitching this season with 16 home runs and 34 doubles.
Previous: Padres vs Dodgers Game 1 Prediction
Dodgers 5, Padres 2
For the fifth consecutive season, the Dodgers have ended the year having led the National League in runs scored and fewest runs allowed.
On top of that, they enter the NLDS with a fully rested team, including their Game 1 starter.
There is very little reason to bet against Los Angeles in the opening game versus the Padres. The Dodgers hold an advantage in virtually every area that can be compared between the two rosters.
Urías will likely post a strong showing, coming in on full rest following a stellar regular season, whereas Clevinger is simply not on the same level facing a tough Dodgers lineup.
The Padres right-hander allowed nine runs over 8 1/3 innings against Los Angeles in September and there is little reason to expect better results in the playoffs.
San Diego is coming off an emotional series win over the New York Mets in the Wild Card round and could be in for a wake-up call in Game 1 in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers should roll to an easy victory in the series opener.
Padres vs Dodgers Game 1 Best Bet
Dodgers Cover -1.5 (+104) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The juice is running a bit high to settle on a straight moneyline victory for the Dodgers, but at +104, the spread looks like a solid option.
Padres vs Dodgers Game 1 Props
Mookie Betts: 2+ Total Bases (+105) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Mookie Betts is batting .467/.556/.667 against Clevinger in 18 at-bats.
The sample size is minimal, but with a hitter as talented as Betts there is little reason to doubt the track record. The Padres right-hander has struggled in his return this season and is likely to give up a few runs, so at +105 I am willing to bet that Mookie will be a part of that production.
