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Diamondbacks at Phillies Predictions | NLCS Game 7

Last Updated: Oct 25, 2023

The Arizona Diamondbacks evened the NLCS at three games a piece to force a deciding Game 7 versus the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park.

Rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaddt will get the ball for Arizona, while Philadelphia counters with southpaw Ranger Suárez. However, it will likely be all hands on deck, with each team fighting for their postseason lives and a spot in the 2023 World Series.

Let’s dive into the NLCS as I offer my prediction and best bets for Game 7 between the Phillies and Diamondbacks.

Diamondbacks at Phillies Game 7 Prediction

Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 4

Pfaddt is a massive wild card when it comes to predicting the outcome of Game 7. The rookie struggled for most of the season before turning a corner recently, resulting in just three earned runs over 12.2 postseason innings with 15 strikeouts and one walk.

Conversely, Suárez has been solid for most of the season thanks to his consistent groundball ball rate. The left-hander held Arizona to just three hits in Game 3.

Both starting pitchers were given a quick hook during their most recent start, by design, in order to prevent them from facing the lineup a third time. One would assume a similar strategy will be in place for Game 7, with almost every pitcher available in a do-or-die scenario.

Phillies manager Rob Thompson even hinted that Zack Wheeler, who tossed 99 pitches in Game 5, would be available for Game 7 if necessary.

The Diamondbacks came out aggressive on the basepaths in Game 6, stealing four bases after swiping just one in the previous five games combined. I would expect that attitude to continue against the Phillies Tuesday night, with Arizona scraping for every inch they can get on offense.

That said, I still have to give the edge to Philadelphia.

Arizona was able to silence the Philly faithful by scoring early and often in Game 6. However, the crowd will likely bounce back and provide their usual level of stadium-shaking support that has allowed the Phillies to be nearly unbeatable at Citizens Bank Park.

This should be a great game, but one I believe will be ultimately won by the Phillies in the first Game 7 of their franchise’s 141-year history.

Diamondbacks at Phillies Game 7 Best Bet

Diamondbacks +0.5 F5 (-115) at Phillies

BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

I expect this game to close until the end, making the Arizona +0.5 F5 a solid investment. This will allow the wager to cash, even if the game is tied after the first five innings, making the early run line our MLB Play of the Day.

Diamondbacks at Phillies Game 7 Props

Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Ketel Marte is batting .423/.444/.615 over 26 at-bats in the NLCS with three doubles and a triple.

In addition, the star second baseman is 8-for-18 (.444) with two extra-base hits against Suárez in his career.

At plus money, this Marte prop is an auto-bet.

MLB Divisional Series Props

Author

Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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