The Atlanta Braves are on the brink of elimination after falling 9-1 in Game 3 to the Philadelphia Phillies. Right-hander Spencer Strider did not appear to be in top form after returning from a left oblique injury, and the Philly offense took full advantage, scoring five runs over 2 1/3 innings against the NL ROY candidate.
Meanwhile, Phillies ace Aaron Nola pitched a gem, posting six shutout innings with six strikeouts to lead his team within one win of the NLCS.
Game 4 will feature right-hander Noah Syndergaard (3.94 ERA) taking on veteran Charlie Morton (4.34 ERA).
Let’s take a look at current betting lines to determine our favorite props and best bets while making our game prediction.
Braves vs Phillies Game 4 Odds
The Braves enter Game 4 as a modest road favorite against the Phillies, but with no clear advantage on the mound. The over/Under is set at 8.5 runs, so sportsbooks are expecting there to be a bit of a shootout on Saturday between these two NL East rivals.
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Prediction
Braves 7, Phillies 4
Neither starting pitcher has been given regular work since the end of the regular season, with only Syndaergaard having pitched (1 inning) since October 1. Meanwhile, Morton has not touched a ball since the 2nd when he allowed three runs over 4 1/3 innings to the New York Mets.
The Braves right-hander surrendered six earned runs over 4 2/3 innings the last time he squared off against the Phillies on Sept. 25. In fact, Morton is 0-1 with a 5.47 ERA over five starts against Philadelphia this season. Both Bryce Harper (10-for-24 with a HR, 2B, 3B) and Kyle Schwarber (4-for-15 with 2 HR) have had success against the 38-year-old.
On the other side, Syndergaard has yet to face the Braves this season. Since the trade deadline, the 30-year-old has only started one game against a team with over a .500 record (Toronto), while taking on the Marlins, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds a combined eight times. I expect the Braves lineup to overwhelm Syndergaard at some point early in the game.
Look for the Braves to tie this series up at two games a piece, forcing a deciding Game 5 on Sunday.
Braves vs Phillies Game 4 Best Bet
Braves Moneyline (-124) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As stated above, I expect a high-scoring game that ends with a Braves victory. Due to the nature of this matchup, I am reluctant to recommend the -1.5 run spread with the way the Phillies have been swinging the bats, but the Over/Under of 8.5 may be worth placing a wager on (Over -124).
Braves vs Phillies Game 4 Props
Dansby Swanson: 2+ Total Bases (+115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Not many Braves hitters have an extended track record against Syndergaard, but Dansby Swanson is batting .421/.450/.474 against the right-hander in 19 at-bats. It is a small sample size, but with the way the Braves shortstop has been swinging the bat this postseason, I have a good feeling that he cashes in during Game 4.
MLB Division Series Props
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Prediction
Phillies 4, Braves 2
Nola has been fantastic this season, posting a 3.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 205 frames. In addition, the Phillies ace managed to hold Atlanta to four runs over 13 innings in two outings in September with 16 strikeouts.
The primary concern for Nola will be Braves third baseman Austin Riley and superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr.
Riley is 18-for-42 (.429) with three home runs and five doubles against the right-hander, while Acuna carries an .806 slugging percentage over 43 plate appearances.
This overall prediction hinges on the fact that Strider may not be 100% on the mound after returning from a left oblique injury. If the Braves right-hander is limited in any way, Philly should have advantage at home on Friday.
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Best Bet
Phillies Moneyline (-126) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As stated above, the Phillies should hold the advantage on the mound regardless of who pitches. Strider may be on a pitch count, which could give an opportunity to the Philadelphia lineup.
All in all, this should be a close game, but I am backing the Phillies’ moneyline.
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Props
Phillies F5 Moneyline (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Aaron Nola should be able to work deeper into this game than Strider, who may not be himself returning from injury. It would be wise to bet on the Phillies in the first five innings.
Previous: Phillies vs Braves Game 2 Prediction
Braves 3, Phillies 2
Game 2 has the makings of a pitcher’s duel after Game 1 provided a combined 13 runs between the Phillies and Braves.
Wheeler is fresh off 6 1/3 shutout innings over the St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card round, having finished the regular season with a 0.90 ERA in September. The 32-year-old last faced Atlanta back on Aug. 3, when the right-hander allowed just one run over seven frames with seven strikeouts.
That said, Atlanta has several hitters with a positive track record against Wheeler. Both Austin Riley and Ronald Acuña Jr. have at least 30 at-bats with a .500-plus slugging percentage versus the Phillies righty, while Travis d’Arnaud is 7-for-17 (.467) with a home run and double.
Meanwhile, Kyle Wright has not pitched since Oct. 1, when he tossed five innings of two-run ball against the New York Mets. The Braves right-hander faced the Phillies three times this season, conceding a grand total of six runs over 19 frames. No current Phillies hitter has more than 14 at-bats against Wright.
The Braves looked like a team that had not played in a week in Game 1 because they didn’t. I expect a bounceback performance from Atlanta at home, but in a close low-scoring showdown.
Phillies vs Braves Game 2 Best Bet
Braves Moneyline (-142) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, I expect the Braves to even the series in Game 2, albeit in a low-scoring game. There could be value in betting Philadelphia in the first-five innings (+105), but I prefer to back the Braves moneyline.
Phillies vs Braves Game 2 Props
Ronald Acuña Jr.: 2+ Total Bases (+120) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Acuña is batting just .235 against Wheeler in 35 at-bats but has managed to collect six extra-base hits, including three home runs. I expect the 24-year-old to make his mark on Game 2, possibly going deep early in the game (+450).
PREVIOUS: Phillies vs Braves Game 1 Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 2
Fried boasts a 2.42 ERA at home this season, and held the Phillies to three runs over 11 innings in September.
Meanwhile, Suárez has thrived on the road, posting a 3.20 ERA over 90 innings while holding the Braves to just one run over 12 frames in September.
Philadelphia has the offensive firepower to stick with any team on a given day, and Suárez is more than capable of holding his own. However, the Braves are just simply better in almost every area.
Fried has the ability to take over a game, while the Atlanta offense led the National League in home runs with 243 (24 more than the second-place team).
I expect a close score, with the Braves walking away with a Game 1 victory.
Phillies vs Braves Game 1 Best Bet
Braves Moneyline (-180) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, this is currently listed as the closest game on Tuesday. The Braves are the favorite for good reason and -180 is not an egregious price.
Phillies vs Braves Game 1 Props
William Contreras: 2+ Total Bases (+155) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Braves’ designated hitter is 6-for-16 against Ranger Suárez in his career with a pair of home runs.
Given his limited but successful track record, +155 are solid odds for William Contreras to record at least two total bases on Tuesday.
