The Twins won Game 1 behind rookie sensation Royce Lewis‘ two homers, which accounted for each of the team’s runs in a 3-1 victory over the Blue Jays.
We’ve got another good pitching matchup with José Berríos vs Sonny Gray, so let’s take a look at the Blue Jays vs Twins best bets for Game 2 of the AL Wild Card.
Blue Jays vs Twins Game 2 Prediction
Twins 5, Blue Jays 2
The Twins have the pitching advantage with Gray (3.95 SIERA) on the mound. The veteran righty has had a terrific season, putting up a 2.79 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 184 innings.
Gray has been much better at home (3.32 xFIP) than on the road (4.01 xFIP), which also bodes well for Minnesota in this one.
In one start against the Jays this year, Gray went five innings, allowing one run on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts.
On the other side, Berríos is looking to get back at his old team, coming off a solid season (3.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) that is backed by the peripherals (4.08 SIERA).
The problem here is that the former Twin has been worse on the road (4.12 xFIP) than at home (3.85 xFIP). Furthermore, lefties have hit Berríos well (.332 wOBA) compared to righties (.269 wOBA), and Minnesota has four southpaws in their lineup.
In Berríos’ lone start vs Minnesota this season, he pitched 5.2 shutout innings but issued five walks. That was also back in May, so the Twins didn’t have their best hitter in Lewis.
Look for the Twins to wrap up this series with a sweep behind a strong outing from Gray.
Blue Jays vs Twins Game 2 Best Bet
Twins ML (-142) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Twins are heavily priced at (-142) odds for a reason. This is simply a better baseball team right now.
Ignore their record (87-75) and put aside the fact that Minnesota played in the weakest division in MLB.
This team only got 58 regular season games from Royce Lewis, who put up a 155 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR in that span. In other words, Lewis has been playing at an MVP level for Minnesota.
They’re a completely different team with this emerging star in the lineup.
On the other hand, we’ve seen the Blue Jays consistently strand runners in scoring position throughout the year (four in Game 1).
The sequence in the top of the eighth perfectly sums up their issues on offense:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a leadoff double.
- Bo Bichette strikes out swinging.
- Cavan Biggio called out on strikes.
- Alejandro Kirk grounds out.
They have struggled to generate timely hits when they need them, and that should continue against Gray and this emerging bullpen.
As a Blue Jays fan, it pains me to say this, but this looks like a sweep. Ride with the Twins on the moneyline in our MLB Play of the Day.
Blue Jays vs Twins Game 2 Props
Royce Lewis: Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
There’s no way that I can pass up (+125) odds on Lewis to go Over 1.5 total bases right now.
The rookie slashed .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs and seven doubles in only 239 plate appearances this season.
In fact, Lewis hit 11 homers and three doubles in only 115 plate appearances since August 23. The rookie finished the regular season on September 19 because he dealt with a hamstring injury.
You would have thought that there would be an adjustment period in his first game back in Game 1 of this series, but Lewis slugged two home runs.
What’s even better for Lewis here is that Berríos has an 8.6% barrel rate, which ranks in the 36th-percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Let’s go with one of the hottest hitters in baseball in our top prop.
[pick id="152980"‘]
MLB Wild Card Props
Previous: Blue Jays vs Twins Game 1 Prediction
Twins 4, Blue Jays 2
The Blue Jays and Twins split the season series with three wins apiece, but Minnesota has a slight edge in Game 1.
López has a 3.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season, but his advanced stats paint a better picture, with a 3.37 SIERA, which ranks fifth in MLB.
While Gausman (3.34 SIERA) has also been dominant for the Blue Jays, the former Giant has struggled vs the Twins this season, giving up seven runs with nine walks in two starts, spanning 10 innings.
Minnesota has done a great job of laying off Gausman’s nasty splitter, which has allowed them to take more pitches and draw walks.
I’m betting that the Twins will continue having success vs the Blue Jays’ ace in Game 1.
Blue Jays vs Twins Game 1 Best Bet
Twins ML (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Not only has Gausman struggled vs the Twins in two starts against them this season, but the veteran has been worse vs lefties (3.65 xFIP, 1.22 HR/9).
That’s bad news vs the likes of Edouard Julien (151 wRC+ vs RHP), Max Kepler (.234 ISO vs RHP), and Matt Wallner (.970 OPS vs RHP).
The Twins have been one of the best offenses in MLB down the stretch, putting up a 127 wRC+ in the last 30 days, which ranks first in baseball.
When you consider how Gausman has struggled to find the strike zone against this lineup (nine walks in 10 innings), you come away liking Minnesota’s chances in Game 1.
I’m projecting that the Twins will get to Gausman and get a strong outing from López en route to a win.
Blue Jays vs Twins Game 1 Props
Blue Jays: Under 3.5 Runs (+100) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
We could see López turn in a strong outing vs a Blue Jays offense that has registered a 101 wRC+ (17th) in the last 30 days.
Minnesota’s bullpen has also been dominant lately, putting up a 30.8 K% in the past month, which ranks first in baseball.
Twins’ righty Louie Varland has been terrific since being converted to a reliever, posting a 1.50 ERA (1.78 xFIP) and 40.5 K% in 12 innings across seven appearances since September 6.
This gives them another weapon to go along with an assortment of options that includes closer Jhoan Durán (2.78 SIERA) and setup reliever Griffin Jax (3.36 SIERA).
Toronto has had issues cashing in runners in scoring position all year, putting up a .318 wOBA in these situations, which ranks 19th in MLB and second-last among playoff teams.
