Astros vs Yankees Game 4 Predictions

Last Updated: Feb 21, 2023

After losing Game 3 of the ALCS 5-0 at home, the New York Yankees will look to avoid being swept by the Houston Astros, who are 6-0 in the postseason, on Sunday.

Nestor Cortes (1-0 2.70 ERA) will take the mound for New York, while Lance McCullers Jr. gets the start for Houston.

Let’s look at current betting odds and determine the best bets and props for Game 4 between the Yankees and the Astros.

Astros vs Yankees Game 4 Odds

The Yankees open as a modest favorite in Game 4 against the Astros with the Over/Under currently set at 6.5 runs. My first inclination would be the smash the Over, but with the way these two teams have been hitting, that may be a mistake.

Astros vs Yankees Game 4 Prediction

Yankees 6, Astros 5

In all reality, this series has not been that close. That may seem obvious given how Houston is one game away from a sweep, but the point remains. The Astros have outperformed the Yankees in almost every facet of the game, winning Game 3 by their biggest margin yet.

Houston won their first postseason games this year by a combined seven runs, so Saturday’s five-run performance was a welcomed sight.

On Sunday they will send McCullers to the mound, in what should be a majestic display of 75 percent sliders. During his lone start this postseason, the right-hander tossed 78 pitches, with 46 of them being a slider (11 curves).

The bad news for McCullers is that the Bronx Bombers feast on sliders (and curveballs), with Aaron Judge being especially dominant.

On the other side, New York will counter with Cortes, who has been solid this postseason. The left-hander has allowed three runs over 10 innings, albeit with just five strikeouts and four walks. Cortes will need to tame an Astros lineup that has destroyed southpaws all season long.

I am going with my gut and predicting the highest-scoring game of the series, even with two solid pitchers on the mound.

Astros vs Yankees Game 4 Best Bet

Over 6.5 Runs (-118) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Odds posted are as of Oct. 23 at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

As mentioned above, each offense stacks up well against the opposing starting pitcher and I anticipate there to be plenty of runs in Game 5.

Astros vs Yankees Game 4 Props

Yordan Alvarez: 2+ Total Bases (+130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Odds posted are as of Oct. 23 at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Yordan Alvarez has only four at-bats against Cortes, but has already taken him deep. The Astros slugger slashed .321/.411/.586 against southpaws this season and I am expecting a big game from the 25-year-old.

MLB Championship Series Props

Previous: Astros vs Yankees Game 3 Prediction

Yankees 3, Astros 2

New York will send their ace to the mound in order to stop the bleeding in the ALCS in Game 3. Cole has been fantastic this postseason, posting a 2.03 ERA over 13 1/3 innings with 16 strikeouts. The right-hander recently tossed 110 pitches in the ALDS against the Cleveland Guardians, allowing two runs over seven frames.

During his lone outing against the Astros this season, Cole held them to one run on four hits over seven innings back on June 25. In addition, not many Houston hitters have had sustained success against the Yankees’ right-hander.

José Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman are a combined 5-for-36 against Cole in their careers.

On the other side, the Yankees lineup has little to no experience against Javier, with Isaiah Kiner-Falefa leading the way with 12 at-bats. The Astros’ 25-year-old right-hander posted a 2.54 ERA this season over 148 2/3 innings and allowed one run over 1 1/3 innings this postseason.

It is difficult to predict how Javier will fare against New York, but he carries a 2.84 ERA in away games and has been fantastic since the All-Star break (1.79 ERA).

All in all, this is set to be yet another fantastic game in the ALCS, but the Yankees have a clear advantage on the mound in Cole. I am backing New York to win Game 3.

Astros vs Yankees Game 3 Best Bet

Under 7 Runs (-118) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Odds posted are as of Oct. 21 at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

With two solid pitchers on the mounds to start Game 3, the Under seems like the move with the Yankees’ moneyline coming in at -146.

That said, if the Over/Under moves lower, I may lean toward an F5 wager instead.

Astros vs Yankees Game 3 Props

Gerrit Cole: Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+104) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Odds posted are as of Oct. 21 at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

As mentioned above, the Astros have struck out just eight times this series compared to the Yankees’ 30. However, Houston is batting just .220 this postseason and struck out eight times during Cole’s most recent outing against the team.

The Yankees ace struck out eight Guardians in each of his postseason starts this year and has sat down at least seven batters in seven out of his last eight outings.

Previous Yankees vs Astros Game 2 Prediction

Yankees 4, Astros 3

The Yankees hope to bounce back in Game 2 with Severino on the mound. The right-hander posted a 7-3 record with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts this season, including seven no-hit innings to end the year.

However, during the regular season, Severino faced the Astros twice, allowing five runs over 12 frames with 11 strikeouts. This was not a terrible performance, but it may not be enough against Valdez.

Speaking of Framber, the left-hander went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA this season in 31 outings. That said, Valdez did rank among the bottom of the league in both hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity allowed.

New York should be able to get to the Astros southpaw if they remain patient at the plate. The Yankees posted the highest walk rate in baseball (thanks to a healthy boost from Aaron Judge), while Valdez carried the 6th worst BB/9.

If there is one thing you do not want to do, it’s walk players on a team built for home runs.

I am backing New York to even the series in Houston in what should be another exciting game in the ALCS.

Yankees vs Astros Game 2 Best Bet

Yankees Moneyline (+124) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Odds posted are as of Oct. 20 at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

No need to get cute here, given the value built into the Yankees’ moneyline.

I expect New York’s bats to wake up in Game 2 behind a solid pitching performance from Severino. If the Yankees can stay patient at the plate, they should have an opportunity early in the game.

Yankees vs Astros Game 2 Props

Giancarlo Stanton: 2+ Total Bases (+180) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Odds posted are as of Oct. 20 at 9 a.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Stanton is 4-for-8 in a limited sample size against Valdez, but the Yankees slugger did hit one over the fence. At +180 I am betting on Giancarlo to collect a least two bases in this right vs lefty matchup in Game 2.

Previous: Yankees vs Astros Game 1 Prediction

Astros 5, Yankees 2

Houston enters Game 1 with a massive advantage on the mound after the Yankees were forced to burn through pitching late in their series with the Guardians. So, instead of seeing Verlander vs Nestor Cortes, we will see Taillon get the ball for the Bronx Bombers.

The Astros could be a bit rusty after playing just three games in nearly two weeks, but they have proven their ability to strike hard on a moment’s notice. Just ask the Mariners.

Likewise, the Yankees have the firepower to quickly put a dent on the scoreboard. However, they face a far greater challenge than their opponents on Wednesday.

One concern for the Astros could be Verlander’s habit of allowing the long ball, which almost cost Houston a victory in Game 1 of the ALDS. That said, it’s hard to be too worried about the track record of the future Hall of Famer.

New York may prove to be a worthy challenger in the ALCS, but they are not set up for success on the road in Game 1. Instead, look for the Astros to come out of the gates swinging and take a 1-0 series lead.

Yankees vs Astros Game 1 Best Bet

Astros -1.5 (+116) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Odds posted are as of Oct. 18 at 9 p.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

As mentioned above, the Astros have a clear advantage on paper in Game 1, and that is hard to ignore. Verlander is well-rested and likely to have a solid bounce-back outing against the Yankees.

Bet on the Astros to claim Game 1 convincingly before the Yankees find their footing after a tough series against the Guardians.

Yankees vs Astros Game 1 Props

Justin Verlander: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Odds posted are as of Oct. 18 at 9 p.m. on FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

After a rough outing during the ALDS in which Verlander allowed six runs over four innings to the Mariners, I expect the Astros right-hander to bounce back when he takes the mound for Game 1 versus the Yankees.

The future Hall of Famer posted an incredible 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP during the regular season with 185 strikeouts. In addition, Verlander has collected at least six punchouts in six of his previous eight starts.

Look for The Astros’ ace to turn in a gem while hitting the Over on his strikeout prop in Game 2.

Yankees vs Astros ALCS Prediction

Astros Win ALCS (-170) at FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

The Astros are the best team in baseball, in my opinion. They are strong in every area, both on the field and off, while also holding home-field advantage in this series.

Every League Championship Series should be close by design, but I expect Houston to wrap up their trip to the World Series sooner rather than later, winning the ALCS against the Yankees in six games.


Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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