Morocco vs Spain World Cup Predictions

Last Updated: Dec 6, 2022

Morocco shocked the world and came out atop Group F following the group stage. But, unfortunately, their reward is Spain in a knockout game.

Hakim Ziyech and Morocco have been one of the most pleasantly surprising teams of the tournament and found themselves with a group-leading seven points after their first three games.

Unfortunately for Walid Regragui‘s squad, the solid play they showcased in the opening round now matches up against the second-highest-scoring team in the tournament, Spain. This comes from the chaos that ensued on Matchday 3 in Group E, which saw Japan steal the top spot in the group.

While head coach Luis Enrique may have the upper hand regarding talent on his roster, Spain not pulling out a win in either of their final two group-stage matches should be a point of concern heading into the knockout round.

While Spain is expected to advance past this match, a Morocco upset wouldn’t come as a surprise, judging by both teams’ form.

Morocco vs Spain Odds

  • 3-Way Handicap: Morocco (+525) | Draw (+270) | Spain (-165)
  • Draw No Bet: Morocco (+333) |Spain (-550)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 ( +115) | Under 2.5 (-160)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (+120) | No (-165)

Morocco vs Spain odds are current as of December 4 at 8 p.m. on BetMGM Sportsbook.

At first glance, according to oddsmakers, Morocco is expected to compete in their final tournament match.

With such lopsided odds in the 3-way handicap and Draw No Bet categories, I like the Over and Both Teams to Score to hit in this match, especially with how strong Morocco’s attack has looked. While Spain has managed just two goals in its last two matches, the 7-0 win over Costa Rica to start the tournament was an example of how dangerous Alvaro Morata and co. can be.

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Morocco vs Spain Prediction

Morocco 1-3 Spain

While Morocco has been nothing short of impressive during this World Cup run, you can expect Spain to rise to another level now that the knockout rounds have begun.

Morocco has arguably been one of the most formidable defenses in the tournament despite failing to control possession in each of the three group-stage matches. However, with Spain’s talent, I expect this to lead to Morocco’s demise ultimately.

Spain should be able to take a relatively high amount of shots in this match and will convert on several as a result. However, Morocco will depend on the counter-attack for most of their chances and hope that Ziyech, dubbed “the Wizard, " can work his magic.

The approach Morocco has had in each game has worked, but it does not seem sustainable and will be exposed against a world-class team like Spain.

Morocco vs Spain Betting Tips

  • Morocco’s lone conceded goal of the tournament was an own goal against Canada.
  • After a 0-0 draw to start the World Cup, Morocco has scored four goals in two games, with Chelsea’s Ziyech providing a goal and assist.
  • Morocco has averaged just 38% possession and nine shots per match in its first three games.
  • Despite just one goal in their last two games, Spain averages three goals on 13 shots per match.
  • Spain’s dominance in possession has seen them average 76% in the group stage. The Spanish side even eclipsed 80% possession in a 2-1 loss to Japan.
  • Morata and Ferrán Torres have led the team with six-goal contributions combined.

Morocco vs Spain Best Bets

Spain to Win and Both Teams to Score (+300) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The masses are almost unanimously backing Spain to advance past this game. However, with that being said, Morocco is still capable of an upset, or at least surprising many, even if they can’t pull off the win.

With the creativity of Ziyech and some of Morocco’s other forwards, I don’t see Spain coming away with a clean sheet. Over the past two games, the Spanish defense has shown that it is susceptible to conceding despite the team dominating possession.

Spain & Over 1.5 Combined Goals Scored (+105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

For a slightly safer play in this match, Spain to win and over 1.5 combined goals scored is seemingly one of the best options for plus-odds.

Spain could very well hit the over themselves, but combining Morocco and their ability to put away chances makes this seem almost too easy.

The main focus will be on Spain returning to form and advancing to the quarter-finals.


Anthony Blanco

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