Iran vs USA World Cup Predictions

Last Updated: Nov 29, 2022

Team USA will square off against Iran in a Group B clash during the World Cup group stage on Friday, Nov. 29, at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha.

The match is a win-or-go-home scenario for the USMNT, who collected two draws this far in Qatar (two points) while Team Melli defeated Wales for three points. Another draw will advance Iran to the Round of 16, with the USA needing all three points to move on.

The showdown will mark the third time these nations have met on the pitch. The most recent engagement ended in a 1-1 draw back in 2000 during an international friendly. However, Iran was victorious during their first-ever meeting during the 1998 World Cup in France, winning 2-1.

Iran lost only one match during qualifying, which was the Persian Stars’ lone defeat in their last 14. As a result, they finished at the top of their Asia World Cup qualifying group, ahead of Son Heung-min and South Korea.

Meanwhile, the USMNT finished third in their CONCACAF qualifying group with a 7-3-4 record, scoring 21 goals while conceding 10. The USA will be looking to advance to the Round of 16 after failing to qualify for the World Cup in Russia.

Let’s look at the current betting odds between Iran and team USA to find best bets and props.

Iran vs USA Odds

  • 3-way handicap: Iran (+310) | Draw (+240) | USA (-110)
  • Draw No Bet: Iran (+188) | USA (-275)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-155)

Iran vs USA odds are current as of Nov. 26 on BetMGM Sportsbook.

The USMNT are modest favorites in their Group B match versus Iran, with a moderate lean towards Under 2.5 goals. Therefore, a low-scoring draw is a strong possibility for the outcome.

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Iran vs USA Prediction

Iran 1-1 USA

I expect this match to be highly contested from whistle to whistle, with each nation failing to produce more than one goal at the most. Team Melli captain Ehsan Hajsafi and Milad Mohammadi create a stout defense for Iran, but lack the firepower to take advantage of the USMNT’s defensive weakness.

Meanwhile, the USA have several options on the attack, including Christian Pulisic and Brenden Aaronson, while fielding a solid midfield led by Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Luca de la Torre, and Malik Tillman. However, the team lacks many standout defenders other than Sergiño Dest, which could lead to their downfall in the World Cup.

If team USA can create scoring opportunities, they have a chance to take three points. That said, I am betting on a low-scoring draw.

Iran vs USA Betting Tips

  • Four of Iran’s last six outings have produced Under 2.5 goals.
  • Four of the USA’s last six outings have produced Under 2.5 goals.
  • Iran defeated Morocco while holding Portugal to a draw in the 2018 World Cup.

Iran vs USA Best Bets

Tie & Under 2.5 Goals (+280) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

This may be the most boring prediction you can make, but all data suggests the Under will hit during this showdown.

I expect Iran to park the bus against the USMNT, with a draw being the most prudent option. However, a “USA or Tie” Double Chance wager is not a bad idea on this scenario as well.


Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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