A thrilling Premier League Matchday 3 proved exquisite for teams playing away from home.
Chelsea and Manchester United finished the weekend as the only hosts to earn all three points. Of the eight teams who earned results away from home, six claimed maximum points.
Included in those results are Liverpool winning at the death against Newcastle and Manchester City producing a separate late winner at Sheffield United.
Following a great Matchday 2, our bets experienced less-than-desirable results. Alas, we’re back with another trio of selections for the fourth matchday of the Premier League season.
Nick Hennion’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 4–7-1 (-1.05 units)
Premier League Matchweek 2 Predictions
Premier League odds used below are current as of Wednesday, Aug. 30, at 11 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.
Manchester City vs Fulham Best Bet
Same-Game Parlay: Manchester City -1.5 & Both Teams to Score - “No” (+115)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Fulham’s offense shocked the world by scoring not once, but twice on Arsenal.
It wasn’t all deserved, though, as manager Marco Silva’s side scored two goals off 0.4 expected at the Emirates. For bettors, it’s both good and bad, allowing an opportunity to sell high against a stout City defense.
Even though Fulham scored in both matches against City last season, the underlying results tell a different story.
Their goal at the Etihad came via a penalty after City went down a man. From open play, Fulham created a mere 0.16 expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Then, at Craven Cottage, they somehow scored a goal off 0.19 expected and only four total shots.
Even though City conceded last weekend, they’re a much different defense at home. Last season, Pep Guardiola’s side limited all 19 EPL visitors to 12.8 total expected goals, per fbref.com.
Add in that they produced a +1.57 home xGDiff, and we’re prepared to make this bet our EPL pick of the day.
Arsenal vs Manchester United Best Bet
Arsenal Moneyline (-125)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
It’s difficult to justify laying this much juice with Arsenal, except when you consider Manchester United’s road record last season.
Manager Erik ten Hag’s side recorded a -0.22 expected goal differential per 90 minutes in domestic fixtures away from Old Trafford last season. However, shrink the sample down to their nine games against teams ninth or better in the final table, and it drops to a -1.33 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Included in that sample is a 3-2 defeat at the Emirates, where Arsenal finished as the dominant side. For the meeting, manager Mikel Arteta’s squad won the expected goals battle 3.1 to 0.4, per fbref.com.
If the Arsenal defense can eliminate their unforced errors, their attack should do enough to expose Manchester United’s leaky backline. Although United have amassed the third-most expected goals through three matches, they’re 11th in xGA.
For those reasons, take the hosts at (-135) or better on Sunday.
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Best Bet
Both Teams to Score - “Yes” (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This appears either a sweetheart deal or the ultimate trap spot.
The early perception of Forest is that they’ll play similarly to last year’s underlying metrics. However, they’ve shown early glimpses of quality, particularly on the offensive end.
Even if you throw out the match against Sheffield United, this is a side that deservedly scored on both Arsenal and Manchester United.
Plus, their attack ripped Chelsea wide open last season. Across two head-to-head meetings, the Tricky Trees created 2.73 expected goals, scoring three times, per fotmob.com.
On the flip side, this is a great sell spot on Chelsea. Their last home fixture came against Luton Town, who mustered only 0.4 expected goals.
However, in matches against Liverpool and West Ham, Chelsea’s defense conceded at least 1.3 xG in both.
Take each squad to bag a goal at (-115) or better.
Premier League Matchweek 4 Parlay
EPL Matchweek 4 parlay bet (+3449)
- Sheffield United (+205) vs Everton
- Nottingham Forest (+700) at Chelsea
- Manchester City -1.5 (-220) vs Fulham
DraftKings Sportsbook • 0.1 Units
The Matchday 4 slate doesn’t contain a lot of parlay elements I love, but these three will do the trick.
As is custom, we’ll take one element of our best bets and include it here. Even if City concede, their attack will rip Fulham’s defense to shreds.
From there, we’ll include Sheffield United as a home dog to Everton. Both sides are without points entering this match, but Everton has no business sitting as a road favorite.
I saw enough from Sheffield in the waning moments of the Manchester City match that they can be worth a flier as a home underdog.
Finally, we’ll take a shot with Nottingham Forest at Chelsea. The Blues have a strong public perception, but bettors should remember Forest won the expected goal battle in both meetings last season.
Who knows how the Manchester United match will play out if Forest avoids a red card. For that reason, they’re worth a big bet on Matchday 4, especially considering they won the xG battle at Arsenal on Matchday 1.
