Week 5 of the NFL DFS season brings our initial byes. The Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers get to rest during the first full week of games in October.
Outside of the island games, Week 5’s main slate features 10 contests, with six early kickoffs and four in the second window.
This week’s featured Showdown game will cover the second of five overseas matches.
Reminder: Use the Table of Contents to the right to easily navigate each section of the weekly DFS article.
Thursday Night Football DFS: Bears @ Commanders
The NFL lines used for TNF are current as of Oct. 5, 2023, at 9 a.m. ET., courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Commanders -6
- Total: 44.5 Points
The Bears’ defense ($4,000 on DraftKings) will once again be shorthanded in the secondary. Starters Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) and Eddie Jackson (foot) are out, while safety Jaquan Brisker (hamstring) is questionable. If Brisker is ruled out, Chicago will be playing only one defensive back who started the season in their nickel package.
OG Teven Jenkins (calf) has a chance to make his season debut for the Bears as he was activated from IR. That would push Cody Whitehair back to center, which is a good thing if you want the Bears to have any chance on offense.
The only Commander who will miss Thursday’s game is depth RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (illness).
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Fewer mismatches are bigger than the Washington defensive line against the Chicago offensive line. The Commanders enter Week 5 tied for seventh in sacks with 13.0. Chicago has allowed 17.0, the third-highest total through one month of games.
Coincidently, Washington has allowed the most sacks with 24.0. It may not matter since Chicago’s defense has only collected 2.0, the worst in the league by a margin of two sacks.
Does this mean that Sam Howell ($9,400) will get to cook? Yes and no. The Commanders reflect the identity of new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, as they pass the second most according to Passing Rate Over Expectation (PROE). The team they trail? Kansas City.
The diminished secondary opens all options as viable targets for Howell, with Terry McLaurin ($10,200) the most notable and expensive.
With Washington a touchdown favorite, Brian Robinson Jr. ($9,200) should see a favorable game script. He’s the primary runner in this offense, seeing 66% of all rushing attempts and 61% of rushing yards.
If the Commanders opt for a ground-and-pound approach on a short week, it will mean more pressure on Justin Fields ($11,000) and the vanilla Bears offense. If Fields has time to throw, he can attack a Washington defense surrendering 268.7 yards through the air over the past three games. Including the Week 1 oddity against Arizona, it allows an average of 230.
Chicago would also be smart to try and #EstablishIt with Khalil Herbert ($8,600) and Roschon Johnson ($4,800). The Commanders’ defense ($5,400) actually allows more rush yards per game (122.5) than that of the Bears (115.5).
Favorite Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
* Stacks
Captain Justin Fields with DJ Moore and Jahan Dotson
Moore may see enough targets to be an anchor, but we can use Fields at CPT and hope to see another performance like Week 4’s. Dotson has a near-identical target share as McLaurin for $3,200 less.
Captain Brian Robinson Jr. with Commanders D/ST and Cole Kmet
This is a common setup based on the assumption that Robinson dominates against a bad defense while his team’s D collects stats. Kmet is Fields’ second target and shined against a poor pass defense last week.
Khalil Herbert with Brian Robinson Jr. and Joey Slye
Since both defenses have a chance to excel, we can be unique by using both starting RBs. Slye and the Commanders have an implied team total of 25 points, which means rostering the kicker of the favorite is live and a way to save salary.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Tyler Scott ($200)
The rookie has at least one catch or rush in three of four games for Chicago, but he largely remains on the sideline in three-receiver sets. Though his speed is unmatched on the Bears’ offense, he’s a low-percentage dart throw if you max-enter Showdown contests.
WR Equanimeous St. Brown ($1,800)
The older St. Brown brother saw his first action in Week 4, catching his lone target. He is Chicago’s best blocking WR, which would be great if blocking led to fantasy points. ESB has replaced Chase Claypool (whiny) in three wide looks.
WR Dyami Brown ($2,800)
In Washington’s highest-scoring games (Week 2 and 4), Brown has contributed as the WR4. If this game were to become a track meet, he would have some value at this salary. Brown could also see more work if Curtis Samuel (quad) and/or Dotson (ankle) reaggravate their injuries.
RB Antonio Gibson ($3,200)
Despite being the clear RB2, Gibson is getting little work. His primary value would come in the event of a Robinson injury or if the Commanders get boat-raced and he sees dump-offs as the receiving back.
* TNF Captain Picks
Justin Fields ($16,500)
Accumulating 32.9 DraftKings points is impressive, and Fields did it with his arm for the first time in his career. The rushing stats are likely to rise, as he should be running for his life once again.
Brian Robinson Jr. ($13,800)
Robinson has posted at least 50 total yards in every game, and he has logged at least one reception in three of four contests. The only time he failed to make a catch was in Week 3’s blowout loss. His touch floor this season is 10, and that turned into 70 rushing yards in the same blowout defeat.
Jahan Dotson ($10,500)
The workload has been there, but the production has not for the second-year wideout. He has one fewer target than McLaurin and is seeing 0.6 targets per snap fewer than his teammate in a similar role. The glaring difference has been that Washington’s WR1 is outscoring Dotson 13.6 to 7.8 through four games.
Terry McLaurin ($15,300)
Sometimes you need to pay up to be contrarian. McLaurin is overpriced, considering his production, but in a game with few constants, we at least know that McLaurin is a top target with a history of big performances.
DFS Sunday Main Slate Week 5
A few notable injuries to touch upon before talking Main Slate. Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) intends to play despite missing Wednesday and Thursday’s practices. Jameson Williams returns from suspension for Week 5, but it is unknown how many carries he will get. ARSB’s injury may lead to a larger role for other Lions wideouts.
Jonathan Taylor (ankle) is expected to make his season debut against the Titans. Miles Sanders (groin) remains limited after probably needing to sit out Week 4. Speaking of Tennessee, Treylon Burks (knee) was a DNP on Thursday. It appears the entire Giants offense was limited in practice (I kid). The big news is LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring) is unlikely to play, and two other linemen are in danger of missing Week 5.
Rhamondre Stevenson (thigh) and Justice Hill (foot/hamstring) remain limited. Pat Freiermuth is unlikely to play in Week 5, while Kenny Pickett (knee) is expected to start for the Steelers.
Week 5 Quarterbacks to Target
Anthony Richardson (vs TEN), Josh Dobbs (vs CIN), and Jalen Hurts (@ LAR)
There are a few matchups that will shy me away from Richardson. Despite a 44% completion rate in Week 4, the rookie finished with 30.6 DraftKings points with three total touchdowns (and one turnover).
Dobbs is a great pay-down option against a struggling Bengals defense.
Week 5 Quarterbacks to Consider
Kirk Cousins (vs KC), Daniel Jones (@ MIA), and Patrick Mahomes (@ MIN)
Cousins is a pivot off Mahomes. Chiefs-Vikings has the highest implied game total (52.5) as of Friday morning.
Jones is a dart throw in a terrible matchup. His rushing ability will carry his fantasy output.
Week 5 Running Backs to Target
De’Von Achane (vs NYG), James Conner (vs CIN), and David Montgomery (vs CAR)
Conner and Montgomery are backs I’ll get in a lot of lineups with DK pricing being all over for the position. Monty is in a position to have a strong Week 5 after a great Week 4 with the Panthers allowing 4.94 yards per carry and 29.63 PPR points per game to opposing RBs.
Week 5 Running Backs to Consider
Joe Mixon (@ ARI), Breece Hall (@ DEN), and Bijan Robinson (vs HOU)
The best way to keep Joe Burrow (calf) from getting mauled is to run the ball. Mixon gets a plus matchup against the Cardinals run defense and should see passing work in all game scripts.
Week 5 Wide Receivers to Target
Marquise Brown (vs CIN), Tyreek Hill (vs NYG), and Ja’Marr Chase (@ ARI)
Brown’s role is much higher than his salary, which is great for fitting in higher-priced players.
Chase has the squeaky wheel narrative (even with nine targets in Week 4) and will be the focus of the Bengals passing attack if Tee Higgins (fractured rib) sits.
Week 5 Wide Receivers to Consider
Wan’Dale Robinson (@ MIA), Tank Dell (@ ATL), and Garrett Wilson (@ DEN)
Robinson has caught 10 of 11 targets in two games this season, and his 3.4 aDOT is what makes him viable on DK as Daniel Jones looks to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible.
If Nico Collins gets shadowed by CB A.J. Terrell, it could be wheels up for Dell and Robert Woods.
Week 5 Tight Ends to Target
Zach Ertz (vs CIN), Mark Andrews (@ PIT), and Jonnu Smith (vs HOU)
Ertz is going to have rostership attached to him, but at some point, the salary discount and his role are just too good. Cincy has allowed a TD in three of four games and 71 receiving yards to Tyler Higbee in the game, they kept the position out of the end zone.
Andrews is $2,100 less than Travis Kelce and $1,000 less than T.J. Hockenson despite being able to outproduce both in a given week. His rostership is also expected to be much lower than Kelce’s.
Week 5 Tight Ends to Consider
Kylen Granson (vs TEN), T.J. Hockenson (vs KC), and Tyler Conklin (@ DEN)
Granson may be the best TE that the Titans will have faced and have allowed an average of four catches to the position.
Conklin has a connection with Zach Wilson. We saw a TE spike week against the Broncos last week, and I expect Conklin to have another five-plus target game.
Week 5 D/ST to Target
Titans (@ IND), Patriots (vs NO), and Steelers (vs BAL)
Pittsburgh gets a chance to rebound in a divisional matchup with low rostership. George Pickens and Mark Andrews combined for the same number of TDs against the Steelers in 2022 as you and I.
The Titans have at least three sacks in every contest and have not allowed more than 78 rushing yards to any team.
Week 5 D/ST to Consider
Saints (@ NE), Dolphins (vs NYG), and Jets (@ DEN)
Miami and New York have the fourth and second-biggest o-line/d-line mismatches according to Brandon Thorn of Establish The Run. We also know the Giants are thin at WR, and the Jets can shut down passing games and have five picks against Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
Favorite Week 5 Dart Throws
QB: Ryan Tannehill (@ IND)
RB: Chuba Hubbard (@ DET)
WR: Justin Watson (@ MIN)
TE: Hayden Hurst (@ DET)
D/ST: Broncos (vs NYJ)
Week 5 Main Slate DFS Showdown: Jaguars @ Bills
The second game overseas features a Jags squad coming off a win in Wembley Stadium and a Bills squad coming off a beatdown of the Dolphins.
- Spread: Bills -5.5
- Total: 48.5 Points
One offense has been disappointing, while the other is the Buffalo Bills.
Despite lacking in the stat sheet, Trevor Lawrence ($11,000 on DraftKings) has been productive. Lawrence has dealt with drops (top five) and plays that don’t count for stats (tied for second-most defensive pass interference calls), but has run the ball enough (min. 3 rush attempts per game) to boost his fantasy floor.
Calvin Ridley ($9,800) lost steam immediately after his excellent Week 1 and has fewer DraftKings points over the past three games than he had to open the season. That re-opened the door for Christian Kirk ($6,600) to be the apple of T-Law’s eye. The former Cardinal leads the Jags with 35 targets.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($8,600) could be the anchor for the Jags offense as the Bills defense is allowing over 140 total yards per game to opposing backs, and Tank Bigsby ($2,200) has been a non-factor. The biggest concern for Etienne is his inconsistent performances through four games, with DK scores of 21.4, 6.2, 17.8, and 10.2 to his name.
The Bills have one of the best pass offenses through one month. Josh Allen ($12,200) has thrown for eight TDs and one INT since his Week 1 meltdown, helping Buffalo score at least 37 points in each contest.
James Cook ($8,400) has carried 60% of the rushing work but has one red zone carry to his name. That carry was more than likely due to Latavius Murray ($4,000) needing a breather on a long drive. Murray is also cutting into Cook’s target share, with 7 of 23 targets aimed at him. Damien Harris ($3,600) has two fewer touches than Murray but is averaging 0.5 PPR points per touch less than the long-time back.
Stefon Diggs ($11,800) and Gabe Davis ($7,200) continue to give defenses fits at their respective levels on the field. Davis is fifth in aDOT (min. 10 targets) with an absurd 18.6 depth, according to the Fantasy Life aDOT app.
Favorite Jaguars-Bills DraftKings Showdown Plays
* Stacks
Captain Stefon Diggs with Josh Allen and Zay Jones
I like Jones as the bring back if he is active this week. He has been a vital part of Jacksonville’s passing attack and has a similar weighted opportunity in the passing game as Calvin Ridley.
Opponents are throwing the ball 61% of the time against the Jags. That’s the 10th-highest clip in the league.
Captain Travis Etienne Jr. with Christian Kirk and Dalton Kincaid
Even if Jones is back in Week 5, Kirk has been the best Jags pass catcher. Etienne’s workload puts him as a top candidate for CPT.
Captain Josh Allen with Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox
Allen is the team’s best red zone back with one fewer carry and nine more rushing yards than Cook. Knox is second on the Bills with four red zone targets and saves salary in a Bills onslaught.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Tim Jones ($200)
Jones is in play if Zay Jones (knee) and Jamal Agnew (quad) are out. Jones has a miniscule 5/54/0 line on six targets with the other wideouts ailing the past two weeks. I doubt going down to the stone minimum is necessary in this game, but it’s there.
WR Trent Sherfield ($800)
The veteran has put up the same 2/18/0 splits each of the past two weeks. Sherfield is playing the third-most snaps of any Bills wideout, which gives faint hope for more production.
WR Khalil Shakir ($1,400)
The second-year receiver is the only depth pass catcher with a TD for the Bills.
RB Tank Bigsby ($2,200)
Bigsby is a TD-dependent option against a porous Buffalo run defense.
Jaguars D/ST ($3,200)
The unit’s rostership will be low going against a top offense, but the Bills are allowing a 6.25% sack rate, middle of the pack in the NFL. We have also seen Josh Allen meltdown once this season. Jacksonville has two games with four sacks, so the counting stats can be accumulated.
*Captains
Josh Allen ($18,300)
The MVP-favorite is a weekly threat for the passing and rushing bonus on DK. It’s unlikely he claims both, but the threat is enough to warrant his price tag.
Stefon Diggs ($17,700)
Diggs is reminding the league why he is one of the best overall WRs. His three 100-yard receiving efforts also gives him a higher ceiling if earning 1.5x points in the CPT position.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($12,900)
Any RB with a threat of 20-plus total touches deserves consideration at CPT.
Christian Kirk ($9,900)
Kirk’s rostership could get steamed because he is so affordable, but there are few options for Jacksonville that can accumulate stats as he can. I love construction flexibility with him up top.
Week 5 Sunday Night Football DFS Showdown: Cowboys @ 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -3.5
- Total: 45 Points
Only one injury of note, with Elijah Mitchell (knee) ruled out.
I won’t spend much time on him, but Christian McCaffrey ($11,800 on DraftKings) is averaging 10 more DraftKings points per game than his closest teammate. That should indicate how much he is used, especially with Mitchell out. Jordan Mason ($1,800) has maxed out at four total touches in a game as the main backup to CMC.
For the third time this season, we could see Brock Purdy ($9,400) under duress against a stout defensive front. It has not slowed the production of the second-year QB, but the Cowboys have more speed than the Steelers and Rams and could lead to a floor game.
What is helpful for Purdy is a healthy receiving corps. It’s about as rare as a unicorn, but it helps keep Purdy locked in for cash Showdown contests.
The 49ers defense ($4,000) had a three-game takeaway streak end against Arizona in Week 4. Dak Prescott ($9,600) has not been a liability with the ball in his hand, but in the one game where he was under intense pressure, he threw his only interception.
The health of LB Dre Greenlaw (ankle) and CB Charvarius Ward (heel) gives San Fran much more turnover upside as two players who are magnets to ball handlers.
Favorite SNF DraftKings Showdown Plays
* Stacks
Tony Pollard with Cowboys D/ST and Deebo Samuel
This contrarian stack takes what you’d expected from CMC/49ers D/ST and flips it to the Cowboys. A field goal spread helps bring confidence for this build.
Captain Christian McCaffrey with Brock Purdy and Michael Gallup
This option covers the rush and pass offense for San Francisco while adding the cheapest Cowboys WR against the 6th-worst defense in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wideouts, according to 4for4.
Captain CeeDee Lamb with Dak Prescott and Deebo Samuel
Samuel’s discount and expected usage in the run game makes him a strong Flex option compared to CPT. As a road underdog, Lamb is the only Cowboy who should get double-digit targets and has a plus matchup in the slot.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Ray-Ray McCloud ($200)
His upside is zapped with Jauan Jennings (shin) off the injury report. McCloud can still get on the field as a field-stretching option and is the team’s top kickoff and punt return.
TE Luke Schoonmaker ($200)
As an ultimate Hail Mary play, Schoonmaker has two touches inside the 10, and the TE position for Dallas has seven total.
WR Jalen Tolbert ($1,600)
It’s been all or nothing for Tolbert. He has nine targets and seven receptions, but eight of those targets and every reception came in two games.
RB Rico Dowdle ($3,000)
The majority of Dowdle’s work has come when ahead, but his five catches and receiving TD open the door for more total touches, and not just rushing work when spelling Pollard.
*Captains
Christian McCaffrey ($17,700)
It almost feels like CMC is underpriced. Expect heavy and warranted CPT rostership.
Tony Pollard ($15,300)
Pollard is the perfect high-priced pivot because of his similar role to McCaffrey. Having a healthier Cowboys offensive line makes a difference against the 49ers strong front four.
Brandon Aiyuk ($12,600)
The best wideout for the 49ers can expose the Cowboys secondary without Trevon Diggs. I expect Brandon Aiyuk and Samuel to be moved around the formation a lot.
Jake Ferguson ($7,500)
Nothing about the matchup screams ‘Jake Ferguson CPT,’ but that’s how you win Showdown contests without getting duped. Ferguson has three games with seven targets, the second-best target rate for Dallas, and leads the NFL in targets inside the 20 (11).
Week 5 Monday Night Football DFS Showdown: Packers @ Raiders
- Spread: Raiders -2
- Total: 45.5 Points
The Packers travel west with a few notable injuries. Aaron Jones (hamstring) is questionable but expected to play. CBs Jaire Alexander (back) and Eric Stokes (foot) are also questionable. Stokes’ return is more questionable, as he has been on the PUP list. Both would give a struggling secondary a boost.
Las Vegas is also hoping for two DBs to be active despite being questionable. Jakorian Bennett (hamstring) and David Long (ankle) were limited all week. Davante Adams (shoulder, $11,200 on DraftKings) is the biggest question for the Raiders. He played through his shoulder ailment in Week 4, so expect the veteran to feature against his former team.
The return of Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,400) from concussion protocol could not come soon enough. The Raiders would have had a much better chance to win against the Chargers if Jimmy G was under center. As always, Adams found a way to be himself despite the signal caller, and that should not change Monday. As good as Alexander and Rasul Douglas have been in the past, the Packers secondary is just middle of the pack in slowing down opposing wideouts.
Green Bay has been excellent against tight ends, which is great when you consider the Raiders have gotten four receptions and 33 yards total from the position.
Josh Jacobs ($10,600) topped 50 rushing yards for just the second time this season in a loss to the Bolts, but he has the sixth-best matchup of Week 5 using 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy-points-allowed metric.
The Packers will be looking to finish a game with a complete collection of their offensive talent for the first time this season. Luke Musgrave (concussion) exited early in his last game, but he is ready to go. He will face a Raiders defense ($3,800) allowing an average of five catches per game to the position and that has allowed a TE touchdown in two of the past three games.
Musgrave, Christian Watson ($7,800), and Romeo Doubs ($8,200) figure to be the favored targets of Jordan Love ($9,800), with rookie Jayden Reed ($6,200) mixing in on three-wide sets.
Favorite MNF DraftKings Showdown Plays
* Stacks
Captain Jordan Love with Three WR/TE
Love CPT is the preferred way to attack the Packers passing game compared to trying to nail the pass catcher who goes off. Doubs has been the guy when looking strictly at targets, but Watson is one game into his season and was the clear WR1 last season.
Captain Josh Jacobs with Jordan Love and Luke Musgrave
Jacobs touches the ball 43% of the time that he is on the field, which is a massive number. Green Bay’s offensive line has been fine considering its injuries, but Maxx Crosby is going to get after Love. Meanwhile, Musgrave has been good finding space between the hash marks and is a chunk-yardage target.
Captain Davante Adams with Jimmy Garoppolo and Aaron Jones
This works for two game scripts. Adams is the guy for Jimmy G, and he could go nuclear despite the shoulder injury. Jones and Adams could be the top scorers on their respective teams despite positive/negative situations.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WRs Tre Tucker ($200) and Kristian Wilkerson ($200)
Tre Tucker and Kristian Wilkerson‘s value would jump if Adams is out. Regardless, Tucker is averaging the same fantasy points per snap (0.09) as Hunter Renfrow ($2,200) despite playing 70 fewer snaps.
Wilkerson has only been active twice, but he played 28 snaps Week 2.
WR Dontayvion Wicks ($200)
Dontayvion Wicks‘ 11.46 aDOT is the third-highest on the Packers, and it has turned into one score through four games. The rookie is a depth WR on this team, but health has been a concern across pass catchers.
RB Ameer Abdullah ($1,000)
Veteran Ameer Abdullah has multiple targets in three straight contests and has been a hurry-up offense option, a scenario the Raiders have been familiar with this season.
TE Josiah Deguara ($1,800)
I recommended Josiah Deguara for Week 4’s TNF matchup, and it paid off because of Musgrave’s concussion. Even with the rookie’s return, we have seen concussions come in bunches. We’re not hoping for that, but it’s in the range of outcomes.
*Captains
Josh Jacobs ($15,900)
His 25 Week 4 touches is more of what we expected this season, even if eight of them were catches. That ceiling is probably not in play this week, but knowing it is there makes Jacobs worthy of his cost.
Davante Adams ($16,800)
The Raiders passing attack is so concentrated that the third-most targeted player is Jacobs. Adams enters Week 5 with 50 targets. Jacobs and Jakobi Meyers have a combined 51.
Jordan Love ($14,700)
Week 4’s 19.64 DraftKings points is Love’s floor so far in 2023. We know he can air out the ball (best QB aDOT). His completion percentage is bad because of the attempts, but more success on early downs will open the field for the first-year starter.
Aaron Jones ($15,000)
Green Bay and Las Vegas have two of the worst run defenses through one month. Jones’ snap limit in his return was a bummer, but that should be lifted in a plus matchup and with the Packers needing to stay close to the Lions in the NFC North standings.
