We’re back in bye week jail with six teams scheduled off for Week 13. This week’s Main Slate has limited options and less-than-ideal Showdown matchups.
We’ll miss you this week, Baltimore and Buffalo, and maybe Minnesota and Chicago (but not Las Vegas and the Giants).
Do not forget to check out all of The Game Day’s Week 13 fantasy football content. There’s a lot of great analysis from the crew as we approach the fantasy playoffs.
Reminder: Use the Table of Contents to the right to easily navigate each section of the weekly DFS article.
Week 13 Thursday Night Football DFS: Seahawks @ Cowboys
The NFL lines used for TNF are current as of Thursday, Nov. 30, at 11:30 a.m. ET., courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Cowboys -9
- Total: 47.5 Points
Seattle will be without Kenneth Walker III (oblique) and Dareke Young (abdomen), as both are doubtful. OG Phil Haynes (toe) was already ruled out. DL Leonard Williams (ankle), D’Wayne Eskridge (ribs, $200 on DraftKings), and Will Dissly (hip, $1,400) are questionable.
Dallas will look to get Peyton Hendershot (IR, ankle, $200) back. He’s questionable for TNF.
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Both teams have leaned on their passing games as the Seahawks rank fifth in neutral passing situations, while Dallas has amped their passing attack to sixth in neutral passing situations since their bye. Part of the preference for the pass is disappointing running backs.
Tony Pollard ($9,800) took 11 games to cross the 20 DraftKings points threshold despite dominating running plays (70%) and passing down work (68%). A slow start has been met with improved performances despite a lack of fantasy points; Pollard is top 10 in Explosive runs and missed tackle rate since Dallas’s bye week.
Zach Charbonnet ($6,800) has struggled in two games as the lead back with Walker III ailing. The rookie has 94 rushing yards on 29 carries the past two weeks but has beefed up his PPR output by catching all 10 receiving targets (for 33 yards).
The Cowboys are just okay in limiting opposing backs, ranking 16th in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the position. A fast start for Charbonnet would alleviate the expected pressure on Geno Smith ($9,200).
Last year’s fantasy hero has taken a step back in 2023 and will be under duress as the Seahawks continue to play shorthanded on the offensive line (and backfield). The good news for Smith is the elbow/oblique injury does not appear to be an issue after it being a major question mark ahead of Week 12’s Thanksgiving night game.
DK Metcalf ($9,600) and Tyler Lockett ($7,200) have seen production dips because of Smith, themselves, and injuries. Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland have played major roles during the Cowboys’ recent hot streak, especially with Bland becoming BFF’s with the end zone.
It’s not as if the talent for the Cowboys opens up opportunities for other pass catchers. Jourdan Lewis has limited slot receivers, with only 26% of targets going to them, on average. That’s awful news for Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,200) and his sub-15% target share.
Favorite Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
* Stacks
Captain Tony Pollard with Cowboys DST and Noah Fant
Pollard has the third-best RB matchup using aFPA, and we know what the Cowboys pass rush is capable of.
Captain DK Metcalf with Geno Smith and Brandin Cooks
If I roster a Seahawks WR at CPT, it’ll be Metcalf because of his volatility. His salary is considerably more than his receiver teammates, but he has only one game since their Week 7 bye with fewer than nine targets and is expected to be in a negative game script.
Captain CeeDee Lamb with Dak Prescott and Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seeing Lamb and Prescott connect at such a high level has been a blast over the past month. Seattle’s secondary is very talented, but Lamb’s usage is all over the field, including as a running back, and that is why I’ll pay up to roster him at CPT.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Jalen Brooks ($600)
Brooks could be a healthy scratch, but if active can be used in a blowout. He caught his only target last week for 24 yards.
TE Colby Parkinson ($800)
The tight end trio for Seattle is a headache for Showdown, but Parkinson could see more action if Seattle decides to play more two-TE sets to help Geno Smith in coverage.
RB DeeJay Dallas ($1,200)
Dallas only played eight snaps as the RB2 in Week 12, but he got three total touches, one of which led to a lost fumble. If Charbonnet cannot handle the workhorse role/is ineffective, Dallas would have the most upside among salary savers.
TE Will Dissly ($1,400)
The former TE1 in Seattle has three catches that have gone for at least 16 yards this season.
WR Jake Bobo ($1,600)
We have seen Bobo do well in spot duty, but unless one of the three wideouts ahead of him gets hurt or the game gets out of hand early, Bobo is a tough player to roster at his price.
*Thursday Night Captain Picks
Dak Prescott ($16,500)
Prescott has at least 31 DK points in all but one game since their Week 7 bye. It’s been great to see the Cowboys keep the pedal pressed down in all game situations, which is why Dak is a player I will be using more than others at CPT.
Tony Pollard ($14,700)
Pollard’s TD positive regression has presented itself the last two weeks after going eight contests without finding the end zone.
Zach Charbonnet ($10,200)
Another 20-plus touch week would keep his CPT hopes alive. Averaging 3.25 yards per carry won’t help his cause, so efficiency is necessary for his viability atop lineups.
Jake Ferguson ($9,300)
Ferguson’s two-game scoring drought is tied for his longest streak of the season. Just saying. His subpar matchup will keep his CPT rate low.
Week 13 Main Slate DFS Showdown
As of Friday, there is no featured Showdown game for Week 13’s main slate. Keeping my eyes peeled.
Week 13 DFS Sunday Main Slate
A fair amount of injury concerns, especially when considering non-DFS players (RIP Buccaneers defense). Sunday’s inactive could change the landscape of Week 13’s main slate.
Week 13 Quarterbacks to Target
C.J. Stroud (vs DEN), Russell Wilson (@ HOU), and Bryce Young (@ TB)
Young will be forgotten with Gardner Minshew and Kenny Pickett, the perceived safer options around $5,000 on DraftKings. The Bucs are without their best linebackers and CB Jamel Dean. They also have depth injuries everywhere on the defensive side of the ball.
Young has a similar floor as his similarly-priced cohorts, but he is the only one of the trio to reach 20 DK points this season.
Week 13 Quarterbacks to Consider
Brock Purdy (@ PHI), Tua Tagovailoa (@ WAS), and Gardner Minshew (@ TEN)
Purdy will be among the most rostered QBs, especially since he is attached to a great matchup in the best game of the week. The best way to get unique with Purdy is to play him without any other 49ers (except Christian McCaffrey, if it works).
Week 13 Running Backs to Target
Zack Moss (@ TEN), Alvin Kamara (vs DET), and Najee Harris (vs ARI)
It is easy to click on Jaylen Warren with the idea that the RB workload pendulum swings back his way, but Warren’s calling card has been explosive runs. It didn’t show Week 12 because Harris out-touched and outgained Warren considerably.
Harris saw 100% of rushing attempts inside the five in Week 12, and he also had 67% of two-minute drill snaps. That is important considering how bad and banged-up the Cardinals are.
Week 13 Running Backs to Consider
Christian McCaffrey (PHI), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs LAC), and Rachaad White (vs CAR)
CMC is the top RB value on DraftKings, according to Establish The Run. Fletcher Cox (groin) is questionable, and LB Zach Cunningham (hamstring), a tackling machine, is out. If Cox is out, it is wheels up on jamming in McCaffrey.
Week 13 Wide Receivers to Target
Tyreek Hill (@ WAS), Courtland Sutton (@ HOU), and Adam Thielen (@ TB)
There are ways to build around Hill and McCaffrey, but if I want to find salary relief, going to Thielen at $6,600 works for me.
Week 13 Wide Receivers to Consider
Jaylen Waddle (@ WAS), Jahan Dotson (vs MIA), and Chris Olave (vs DET)
I expect Olave to get cleared from concussion protocol, which will open my player pool to more diversity when avoiding “Stars and Scrubs" builds at WR.
Week 13 Tight Ends to Target
Juwan Johnson (vs DET), David Njoku (@ LAR), and Tyler Conklin (vs LAC)
Njoku has the best TE matchup according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) metric, and he will have the husk of Joe Flacco targeting him plenty.
Week 13 Tight Ends to Consider
Hunter Henry (vs LAC), Chig Okonkwo (vs IND), and Sam LaPorta (@ NO)
After logging snaps for #TeamWindSprints in Week 12, Henry gets a top-10 matchup against the Chargers. In the previous four games before last week’s goose egg, the former Charger had aDOTs of 10, 6.33, 11.14, and 8.4 with abhorrent QB play. The Chargers are forgiving to pass catchers.
Week 13 DST to Target
Jets (vs ATL), Steelers (vs ARI), and Browns (@ LAR)
I don’t mind paying for the Jets DST to get off the Falcons chalky chalk. It’s a home game for New York and Desmond Ridder is worse than Taylor Heinicke.
Week 13 DST to Consider
Panthers (@ TB), Patriots (vs LAC), and Colts (@ TEN)
The Colts have the third-best matchup up front using Brandon Thorn’s OL/DL rankings, which is bad news for perpetually scared Will Levis. If he loses the pocket (which he does, a lot) expect a breakdown somewhere up front. Indy ranks seventh in pass rush win rate.
Favorite Week 13 Dart Throws
QB: Bailey Zappe (vs LAC)
RB: Antonio Gibson (vs MIA)
WR: Olamide Zaccheaus (vs SF)
TE: Brevin Jordan (vs DEN)
DST: Saints (vs DET)
Week 13 Sunday Night Football DFS Showdown: Chiefs @ Packers
- Spread: Chiefs -6
- Total: 43 Points
Kansas City will be without Jerick McKinnon (groin) and LB Nick Bolton (IR, Wrist). Green Bay rules Aaron Jones (MCL) out, while CB Eric Stokes (hamstring) is doubtful.
The questionable list for the Packers is lengthy. It includes WRs Jayden Reed (chest, $7,000 on DraftKings)) and Dontayvion Wicks (knee, $800), as well as CBs Jaire Alexander (shoulder) and Robert Rochell (calf), safeties Darnell Savage (calf) and Rudy Ford (bicep/groin), Josiah Deguara (hip, $200), and LB De’Vondre Campbell (neck).
This game could scheme slow and sloppy with injuries dominating both sides of the ball for the Packers. The problem for them is A.J. Dillon ($7,800) has been cheeks. With/without Jones in the lineup, Dillon has three games with 4.0 yards per carry or better. The Chiefs defense ($4,600) is top 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to every skill position, according to 4for4.
That means Jordan Love ($9,600) is in for a tough game with little to trust from his wideouts. It’s ugly, but low aDOT players such as Dillon and Tucker Kraft ($4,200) stick out as quick pass options to avoid an elite defense.
Patrick Mahomes ($12,400) has as many 300-yard passing games over the past month as you and I. That is because his wideouts aren’t trustworthy, and teams know to do whatever it takes to eliminate Travis Kelce ($11,800).
That means Isiah Pacheco ($10,200) is in prime position to repeat last week’s two-TD performance, especially with McKinnon ruled out.
Favorite Sunday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
*Stacks
Captain Isiah Pacheco with Chiefs DST and Tucker Kraft
Pacheco is a pleasure to watch because of his reckless abandon, but his work in the pass game puts him in an ideal spot.
Captain Patrick Mahomes with at least Two Pass Catchers
Kelce and Rashee Rice are the obvious choices, but swapping one of them out for a cheaper player will help with uniqueness.
Captain Travis Kelce with Patrick Mahomes and Patrick Taylor
Taylor Swift is supposed to be in attendance tonight. You’ve been warned.
Captain Jordan Love with at least Two Pass Catchers
Love deserves this type of CPT treatment with his recent success. I’d feel a lot worse about him as a CPT choice if this game was in K.C.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
RB James Robinson ($200)
It is highly unlikely that Robinson gets on the field as a practice squad elevation, but what has Dillon done to not lose snaps to a fresher back?
WR Dontayvion Wicks ($800)
DK is doing us a favor for keeping Wicks’ salary low. He missed the Thanksgiving win, but has four straight games with at least four targets, two catches, and 28 yards.
RB Patrick Taylor ($2,000)
Taylor was out-touched 17-4 by Dillon on Turkey Day, but this game script screams Taylor, especially if the injuries on defense allow the Chiefs to run up the score.
*Captains
Isiah Pacheco ($15,300)
My favorite CPT, the Rutgers alum is in line for a 20-plus touch workload.
Patrick Mahomes ($18,600)
Mahomes at CPT will require the future Hall-of-Famer to end his 300-yard passing game drought.
Rashee Rice ($12,600)
Kelce is firmly in play at CPT, but Rice is the Chiefs pass catcher I’ll pivot to to save some salary up top and avoid the Swift chalk.
Jayden Reed ($10,500)
The best all-around WR on Green Bay, Reed will avoid rostership with Watson and Romeo Doubs priced below him, but still in a similar range. Game script says to target a Packers pass catcher at CPT in some lineups.
Week 13 Monday Night Football DFS Showdown: Bengals @ Jaguars
- Spread: Jaguars -10
- Total: 40 Points
The Bengals enter Monday Night Football in okay shape, with only CB Cam Taylor-Britt (quad/ankle) listed out. OT D’Ante Smith (knee) and DT Jay Tufele (illness) are questionable.
The Jaguars are questionable - CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring), Travis Etienne Jr. (ribs, $10,200 on DraftKings), and TEs Brenton Strange (foot, $200) and Luke Farrell (toe, $2,600) are questionable.
As much as the Bengals will want to #EstablishIt against Jacksonville’s front four on defense, sledding between the tackles is going to be difficult. The Jags run defense is 12th in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) metric, including only six PPR points per game as pass catchers.
That puts the onus on Joe Mixon ($7,000) to find the fountain of youth early or get phased out almost completely in terms of production. Jake Browning ($8,800) is fine as a low-floor, low-ceiling backup QB in the NFL, but every pass catcher he throws to loses a chunk of their own ceiling with him under center.
It’s a shame because the Jaguars defense ($4,800) allows the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs using aFPA.
Trevor Lawrence ($10,800) and his Jags pass catchers could feast Monday night against an injured, declining pass defense. Taylor-Britt is a notable loss because he has been very good in 2023, ranking as the 18th-best CB according to Pro Football Focus.
That leaves the Bengals starting rookie CB D.J. Turner II, as well as Mike Hilton and Chidobe Awuzie. Hilton and Turner rank as two of the 15 worst CBs this season. Awuzie gives them three in the bottom 20.
Favorite Monday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
*Stacks
Captain Travis Etienne Jr. with Jaguars DST and Tanner Hudson
Hudson gets a nod in this stack as the most-targeted TE for the Bengals in Browning’s only start. The Bengals increased their multiple-TE sets by nearly threefold in Week 12.
Captain Ja’Marr Chase with Jake Browning and Christian Kirk
Chase is very much in the CPT discussion despite the QB apocalypse he is attached to.
Captain Christian Kirk with Trevor Lawrence and Joe Mixon
Kirk and Mixon are volume plays, with Kirk having a better ceiling based on recent and season-long production.
Captain Calvin Ridley with Trevor Lawrence and Jake Browning
Browning makes an interesting stack candidate because he spreads the wealth in the passing game; Browning targeted nine pass catchers, and new Tee Higgins is healthy.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
RBs Trayveon Williams ($400) and Chase Brown ($200)
The RB2 and RB3 behind Mixon, respectively, only have value if Mixon is pulled because of a blowout.
Bengals Tight Ends
Their prices range from $800 - $4,000, with Hudson the main benefactor in this offense. All four active TEs had at least one catch in Week 12, and Drew Sample snagged the lone TE TD.
D’Ernest Johnson ($4,200)
Ignore the salary because Johnson’s usage depends a lot on what is expected from Etienne if active. If Johnson ends up the starter, he’s a lock in cash games and one of the easier plays to consider in GPPs.
*Captains
Trevor Lawrence ($16,200)
Lawrence may be the best play on the slate, especially with his unprecedented rushing TD rate this past few games. A Lawrence plunge into the end zone to save Etienne from an extra hit is a possibility.
Calvin Ridley ($13,800)
The variance attached to Ridley is why he can be overlooked, especially at a price similar to Christian Kirk‘s. Single-digit CPT rostership is ideal for Ridley atop lineups.
Ja’Marr Chase ($14,100)
The salary discount because of his QB is all I need to vault him toward the top of my CPT ranks.
Evan Engram ($9,300)
Engram has the third-best TE matchup of the week using aFPA. He also has at least five targets in every game this season, with Week 1 being the only game which he had the minimum of a handful of balls thrown his way.
