Week 12 is going to be nuts. We have three games on Thanksgiving, one on Black Friday, and then our weekly Sunday shenanigans. Below, you will get breakdowns of every Turkey Day game, as well as a three-game overview.
Black Friday’s game also gets the Showdown slate treatment. After that, it’s back to normal with Week 12’s Sunday main slate, Sunday Night Football, and Monday night’s finale.
I promise not to be long-winded as we have a lot to cover.
Do not forget to check out all of The Game Day’s Week 12 fantasy football content. There’s a lot of great content coming from the crew.
Reminder: Use the Table of Contents to the right to easily navigate each section of the weekly DFS article.
Week 12 Early Thanksgiving Football DFS: Packers vs Lions
The NFL lines used for TNF are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 22, at 9:30 a.m. ET., courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Lions -7.5
- Total: 47 Points
The Packers have injuries on injuries. Aaron Jones (knee) is doubtful, Josiah Deguara (hip), Dontayvion Wicks (knee/concussion), Emanuel Wilson (shoulder), Luke Musgrave (abdomen), and OLB De’Vondre Campbell (neck) are all expected to be out.
Jayden Reed (chest, $8,200) on DraftKings and a slew of others are expected to be questionable.
The Lions are much healthier. G Jonah Jackson (wrist) is the only player expected to miss Thursday’s game.
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With Green Bay expected to be without two of its three active running backs from Week 11, look for a lot of Jordan Love ($9,000). It’s a shame Wicks is hurt, as the recent chemistry between he and Love gave the Packers a trusted wideout past Reed.
Tucker Kraft ($1,200) may not be Musgrave, but the fellow rookie TE was drafted in the middle rounds on purpose and can serve as a top-four target in a plus-matchup.
AJ Dillon ($7,000) is in for a massive, if unspectacular, workload. He played every second half snap in Green Bay’s Week 11 win, and only Patrick Taylor profiles as an RB to get touches. Taylor is not in this week’s player pool for Green Bay.
Detroit won’t float through this game but look for a lot of David Montgomery ($9,400) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($10,200). The Pack are a run funnel, ranking 19th in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) metric. They’re top 10 in every other aFPA skill position category.
That does not preclude Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11,400) from being in your player pool. He remains the most likely pass catcher to get his with a DraftKings points floor of 16.6 this season.
Favorite Early Thanksgiving DraftKings Showdown Plays
* Stacks
Captain David Montgomery with Lions DST and Tucker Kraft
It’s a good game to leave a lot of salary on the table, especially with the Packers expected to pass more than usual.
Captain Amon-Ra St. Brown with Jared Goff and A.J. Dillon
Catching passes is not his thing, but Dillon is the de facto pass catching RB unless Taylor comes back after a stint with New England and runs in that role.
Captain Jayden Reed with Jordan Love and Sam LaPorta
Christian Watson was supposed to be what Reed is. The Lions secondary is playing well below its talent level, which is always great when projecting an offense to pass over their expected season-long rate.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WRs Malik Heath and Samori Toure ($200)
Heath has surpassed Toure in the Packers WR pecking order, but both should get more work than usual Thursday.
TE Ben Sims ($200)
Meet your TE2 for the Packers.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones ($1,000)
DPJ barely has a role, but his snaps came at the expense of Kalif Raymond. It’s not nothing, but I doubt you need to roster the former Brown.
* Early Thursday Captain Picks
David Montgomery ($14,100)
A week after Gibbs stole the thunder from Monty’s return, I expect that bulldozer to be deployed as a defense tenderizer with extra rest after dealing with an injury.
Jordan Love ($13,500)
The chuck-it king is going to be in an advantageous spot to throw … a lot. Love’s running floor is pretty low, but he has three games of 30-plus rushing yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($17,100)
The best player on the slate is once again priced the highest. That’s fine by me, especially since rostering him at CPT doesn’t kill roster construction with the Packers having a lot of priced-down options.
Week 12 Afternoon Thanksgiving Football DFS: Commanders vs Cowboys
- Spread: Cowboys -11
- Total: 49 Points
As if a healthy roster had a better chance, the biggest injury for the Commanders is CB Emmanuel Forbes (elbow). He, along with six others, are expected to miss Week 12.
The Cowboys are expected to be without Rico Dowdle (ankle) and S Jayron Kearse (back).
If you squint hard enough when looking at information for this game, you can see a way where the Commanders remain competitive. I love what Sam Howell ($9,600) has accomplished despite running for his life every snap.
He has already eclipsed 3,000 passing yards and has 20 total TDs in his first season as a starter. Twelve interceptions are bad but putting all 12 on him would be incorrect.
A week after being the clear lead back with Antonio Gibson (questionable, $3,800) out, Brian Robinson Jr. ($8,600) is in a bad spot unless his passing work travels with him to Texas. Robinson has 13 catches on 16 targets the past two games.
The Cowboys defense ($6,200) has the highest DST price tag of the season and for good reason. No team allows a higher sack rate than Washington, and only Cleveland gets to the QB at a higher rate than Dallas.
It is great to see the passing game continue to operate in blowout scripts. It gives Dak Prescott ($10,400) and CeeDee Lamb ($11,600) higher floors, while lifting every secondary pass catcher.
It also allows for Tony Pollard ($9,200) to drag his truthers (me) along for another week.
To Pollard’s credit, he has no fewer than 13 total touches since Week 5. It’s not what was expected before the season, but the workload is still there.
Favorite Afternoon Thanksgiving DraftKings Showdown Plays
*Stacks
Captain CeeDee Lamb with Dak Prescott and Logan Thomas
We know how high the ceiling is for Lamb and Prescott. Thomas has been the most consistent pass catcher for the Commanders.
Captain Cowboys DST with Dak Prescott and Sam Howell
Playing a defense at CPT is a great way to get elbowed on the street, but it’s live in this game. You can roster Howell against the Cowboys DST since he can boost their point output with sacks and turnovers, while Howell can pass for 300-plus yards and run for 30 more in a negative game script.
Captain Sam Howell with Two Pass Catchers
Flip the script and construct a lineup with the fantasy-friendly QB. The former Tar Heel only has two bust performances this season (10.46, 4.6 DK points).
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
TE John Bates ($400)
The veteran has put together 8.6 DK points the past two weeks, which is not nothing.
RB Deuce Vaughn ($800)
If Dowdle is out, Vaughn should be the RB2. With a blowout on the table, Vaughn could get extra run since he is usually a healthy scratch.
WR KaVontae Turpin ($1,200)
The USFL star has been invaluable as a returner and trick-play option. Again, if this game gets out of hand, look for Turpin to get a few more looks.
*Afternoon Thanksgiving Captains
CeeDee Lamb ($17,400)
No team allows more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wideouts than Washington.
Dak Prescott ($15,600)
Not to be outdone by Lamb, no team allows more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs than the Commanders.
Brian Robinson Jr. ($12,900)
If Gibson misses Week 12, Robinson will be one of my favorite pivot CPT options off of the Cowboys and Howell.
Week 12 Thanksgiving Night Football DFS: 49ers vs Seahawks
- Spread: 49ers -7
- Total: 43 Points
The Thanksgiving nightcap has a major injury - Geno Smith (elbow/tricep, $9,400). He is expected to play, unlike teammate Kenneth Walker III (oblique). There is a chance T Abraham Lucas (IR, knee) comes back, but the short week is an issue.
The 49ers are expected to be without G Spencer Buford (knee).
This should be the closest to respectable we get from a game on Turkey Day. Smith’s injury appeared worse in the moment than after the game, but a bruised tricep is an injury one could expect to linger, especially with a QB.
That could mute the Seahawks passing game. It also does not help that DK Metcalf (toe, $8,400) and Tyler Lockett ($6,400) have battled injuries all season.
The hope is both are healthy to take on a 49ers secondary allowing the 10th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to opposing WRs.
The loss of S Talanoa Hufanga makes the secondary exponentially worse.
Rookie Zach Charbonnet was not impressive as a rusher last week, but his six receptions gives the expected starting RB a higher floor. Another handful of catches is in play against a ferocious front four looking to get to the injured Smith sooner than later.
Like the Lions, the Seahawks secondary has a better roster on paper than the stats show. That is bad news with Brandon Aiyuk ($9,800), Deebo Samuel ($8,000), George Kittle ($7,400), and Christian McCaffrey ($12,000) coming to town. A healthy offensive line is also giving Brock Purdy ($10,000) plenty of time to find his pass catchers.
The Seahawks defense ($3,800) has only allowed one 100-yard rusher but has allowed an average of one rushing TD and 24.86 PPR points to RBs.
Favorite Thanksgiving Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
*Stacks
Captain Jaxon Smith-Njigba with Geno Smith and Deebo Samuel
JSN has the lowest aDOT among the three Seahawks wideouts, and I think that matters with Smith nursing a painful injury and Metcalf slowed by a toe injury. Death by a thousand cuts against a bad secondary.
Captain Christian McCaffrey with 49ers DST and Zach Charbonnet
Pass catching RBs are more valuable on DraftKings, and CMC is the best in the game.
Captain Brandon Aiyuk with Brock Purdy and Tyler Lockett
Aiyuk is out-targeting Samuel 6.8 to five, which has led to Aiyuk scoring 5.5 more DraftKings points per game. Samuel continues to see touches as an RB, but those are inherently less valuable.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Jauan Jennings ($1,200)
Jennings is the de facto WR3 for the 49ers. He has one catch for eight yards on two targets the past three games, and only saw one-third of the offensive snaps Week 11.
TE Will Dissly ($1,600)
Dissly has been on Seattle for a while, but 2023 has been one of his least involved seasons with the club. He still is seeing the second-most snaps from the TE trio used, which has led to six targets the past three games.
WR Jake Bobo ($2,000)
If Metcalf is ruled out Week 12, or if any WR were to exit with an injury, Bobo would slot in as an outside WR. He still got two targets Week 11 as the WR4.
*Thanksgiving Night Captains
Christian McCaffrey ($18,000)
After three straight games with fewer than 20 total touches, CMC has games with 22 and 26 touches. McCaffrey will likely be the most rostered player at CPT.
Brandon Aiyuk ($14,700)
Aiyuk has separated himself from Samuel in terms of WR production and talent. Enough DFS players will look to save with Samuel at CPT, but I am going to lean on Aiyuk in a great matchup.
Tyler Lockett ($9,600)
I get making Lockett less expensive than Metcalf and Walker III, but his Flex and CPT pricing is an overcorrection that I want to exploit. If Smith’s triceps bruise ends up being sensationalized and he plays closer to expectations, Lockett will be the value on the slate.
Week 12 Thanksgiving Football DFS: Main Slate
All of the analysis for these games is above, so I’ll keep this simple with my favorite plays at each position.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (vs WAS), Jordan Love (@ DET), and Brock Purdy (@ SEA)
Love has increased his DK scoring each of the past two games, including a tough road matchup in Pittsburgh.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey (@ SEA), David Montgomery (vs GB), and Brian Robinson Jr. (@ DAL)
Robinson is in play no matter what, but especially if Antonio Gibson (toe) is out.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb (vs WAS), Jayden Reed (@ DET), and Jameson Williams (vs GB)
Williams’ snap count hit a season-high 68%, more than Kalif Raymond. His three targets and 44 yards were also more than fellow WR Josh Reynolds.
Tight End
Logan Thomas (@ DAL), Jake Ferguson (vs WAS), and Tucker Kraft (@ DET)
Paying up at TE is where lineups will get different, but I am less likely to punt at RB and WR on this slate. Noah Fant is also in play to avoid Kraft chalk.
DST
Cowboys (vs WAS), 49ers (@ SEA), and Lions (vs GB)
Not rostering Dallas is how you get different on Thanksgiving.
Week 12 Black Friday DFS Showdown: Dolphins @ Jets
- Spread: Dolphins -9.5
- Total: 40 Points
If the injury list was a kid’s wish list for Christmas, we’d be in trouble as parents because it’s long.
De’Von Achane (knee) is questionable but isn’t expected to play, which is why RB Darrynton Evans was elevated to the active roster. Evans is not in the player pool for this game. OG Robert Jones (knee) is doubtful, while seven others are questionable. That includes four other offensive linemen (including Terron Armstead), Chase Claypool (knee, $1,400 on DraftKings), Alec Ingold (foot/ankle, $600), and Durham Smythe (ankle, $1,600).
CB Michael Carter II (hamstring) is doubtful for the Jets, while three offensive linemen are questionable, with Mekhi Becton (ankle/knee) in danger of missing Friday’s game with two DNPs. TE Kenny Yeboah (IR, hamstring, $200) could be activated for his first game of the season.
Nothing about what the Jets are doing Week 12 lends to believing that they can compete with the Dolphins high-powered offense. Tim Boyle ($6,000) may be the worst quarterback on an active roster. If he were to faceplant, Trevor Siemian ($6,000) would step in. It would not be surprising to see both play.
The QB situation is all sorts of bad for Breece Hall ($7,600), who already had a difficult matchup. Entering Week 12, only two teams allowed fewer schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to opposing running backs, according to 4for4.
Hall and Garrett Wilson ($8,600) are going to have to accrue fantasy points with quick passes to help Boyle and a tattered offensive line.
Miami’s offensive line concerns doesn’t preclude their offense from a letdown. As long as Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are playing, any wideout can be contained. It would not be surprising to see Tyreek Hill ($12,400) and Jaylen Waddle ($9,600) in constant motion, especially into the slot with Brandin Echols expected to fill in as the nickelback with Carter II doubtful.
The Dolphins can also soften the Jets defense ($3,800) via the run. Raheem Mostert ($10,200) and Jeff Wilson Jr. ($1,800) are expected to lead the backfield against the fourth-worst defense in RB aFPA. If the offensive line can hold up despite injuries, the backs could feast.
Favorite Black Friday DraftKings Showdown Plays
*Stacks
Captain Tyreek Hill with Tua Tagovailoa and Tyler Conklin
It’s easy to stack with Garrett Wilson, but considering his expected matchup against Jalen Ramsey, Conklin makes the most sense as a secondary pass catcher expected to remain involved as a two-score underdog.
Captain Raheem Mostert with Dolphins DST and Breece Hall
Miami’s defense can get in the optimal lineup by existing, but a handful of sacks is in play. Hall should see plenty of targets to remain fantasy-relevant.
Captain Breece Hall with Garrett Wilson and Jaylen Waddle
This stack should include Boyle because of his cheap salary, while Waddle can find a way into lineups despite costing more than both Jets players.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
TE Jeremy Ruckert ($200)
The second-year TE had his biggest fantasy output Week 11 in the Jets’ blowout loss to Buffalo. He should be on the field a lot as an extra blocker/safety valve checkdown.
WR Xavier Gipson ($800)
The rookie has seen at least two targets in three straight games, which is not nothing when dumpster diving to pay up for Dolphins options.
RB Israel Abanikanda ($1,200)
Priced like a player with usefulness, the rookie should see more touches now that the Jets are essentially waving the white flag on this season. His breakaway speed keeps him in play for today’s game, especially in garbage time.
TE Durham Smythe ($1,600)
The Miami TE1 has six targets and catches the past two weeks and could be in line for a similar workload as his WR teammates deal with elite CBs. Smythe’s four red zone targets is a positive despite his spotty target share.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. ($1,800)
Wilson will be popular as Miami’s RB2, but the Dolphins would need to be in a blowout game script for the veteran to really pay off.
*Captains
Raheem Mostert ($15,300)
Miami is in a position to potentially run away and hide with this game early, which means Mostert is in play to be the optimal CPT with the best matchup among all Dolphins skill position players.
Tyreek Hill ($18,600)
Hill can get to the CPT mountain without scoring since he is a threat for 100 receiving yards weekly. I’d still prefer he scores, too.
Breece Hall ($11,400)
I don’t know why Hall is not more expensive, but his price discount tied with his receiving work makes him the best Jets CPT option.
Dolphins DST ($7,800)
Be careful using the Dolphins at CPT. Their high score on DraftKings is 12, and they only have one defensive TD all season. This is a great spot to add to that number, but being road favorites isn’t always a recipe for success.
Week 12 DFS Sunday Main Slate
Wide receiver is the position to pay attention to in terms of injuries. Cooper Kupp (ankle), Tee Higgins (hamstring), Marquise Brown (heel), Noah Brown (knee), Treylon Burks (concussion), Michael Wilson (shoulder), and Mecole Hardman Jr. (thumb) are all in danger of missing Week 12.
Week 12 Quarterbacks to Target
Gardner Minshew (vs TB), Baker Mayfield (@ IND), and Jalen Hurts (vs BUF)
It’s not an ideal QB week, but Minshew is only $5,100 and could face a Bucs defense without Lavonte David (groin), Devin White (foot), Carlton Davis (hip), and Jamel Dean (ankle/foot). Davis is the only one with has practiced in a limited fashion.
Week 12 Quarterbacks to Consider
Josh Allen (@ PHI), C.J. Stroud (vs JAC), and Trevor Lawrence (@ HOU)
Stroud is averaging 9.4 more DraftKings points at home than on the road. Lawrence gets a smaller 2.4-point boost on the road 18.3 compared to 15.9).
Week 12 Running Backs to Target
Jaylen Warren (@ CIN), Kyren Williams (@ ARI), and D’Andre Swift (vs BUF)
There may be some push in playing Williams coming off of I.R., but Arizona allows the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs, and the Rams have averaged 23 points per game with him active. That number dropped to about 14 points per game without the former mid-round pick.
Warren faces a Bengals defense allowing the most rushes of 10-plus yards to opposing RBs.
Week 12 Running Backs to Consider
Rachaad White (@ IND), Bijan Robinson (vs NO), and Rhamondre Stevenson (@ NYG)
Workload is everything, especially with PPR formats. All three have been utilized in the passing game, as well as being leaned on as the workhorse. If Robinson continues to get 20-plus touches per game, he could be the best RB value Week 12.
Week 12 Wide Receivers to Target
Adam Thielen (@ TEN), Nico Collins (vs JAC), and Josh Downs (vs TB)
It’s okay to not like Thielen because of Carolina’s offense, but the Titans remain a pass funnel and the veteran has turned 12 targets inside the 20 into 4 TDs.
Week 12 Wide Receivers to Consider
Christian Kirk (@ HOU), Puka Nacua (@ ARI), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (@ NYG)
At minimum pricing, Smith-Schuster pops after playing 68 of 69 snaps for the Patriots Week 10. Coming out of a bye and against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, the position receiver could stock up catches and produce without finding the end zone (but please do).
Week 12 Tight Ends to Target
Dalton Kincaid (@ PHI), Trey McBride (vs LAR), and Cade Otton (@ IND)
McBride is in a bounce back spot, while Otton remains a top target for Baker Mayfield. Both have top four matchups according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) metric.
Week 12 Tight Ends to Consider
Evan Engram (@ HOU), David Njoku (@ DEN), and Pat Freiermuth (@ CIN)
According to aFPA, Engram and Njoku have the best matchups Week 12. Freiermuth is only $400 above minimum and was one of Kenny Pickett‘s favorite targets prior to his multiple injuries.
Week 12 DST to Target
Chiefs (@ LV), Patriots (@ NYG), Broncos (vs CLE)
Kansas City is only $500 more than the cheapest defense Week 12, which is wonderful consider is allows the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing offenses.
New England is a great pivot, as Tommy DeVito has been sacked 22 times in his three games played.
Week 12 DST to Consider
Texans (vs JAC), Falcons (vs NO), Panthers (@ TEN)
If Atlanta can slow Alvin Kamara and put the game on Derek Carr‘s shoulders, there could be plenty of turnovers.
Favorite Week 12 Dart Throws
QB: Kenny Pickett (@ CIN)
RB: Ty Johnson (PHI)
WR: Trenton Irwin (vs PIT)
TE: Tanner Hudson (vs PIT)
DST: Rams (@ ARI)
Week 12 Sunday Night Football DFS Showdown: Ravens @ Chargers
- Spread: Ravens -3
- Total: 48.5 Points
Numerous Ravens are in jeopardy of missing Sunday night’s game. Their linebackers depth takes a hit without Trenton Simpson (concussion) and Malik Harrison (groin). Odell Beckham Jr. (shoulder, $6,200 on DraftKings) and Zay Flowers ($8,000) are questionable, but expected to play.
OT Ronnie Stanley (knee), and CBs Damarion Williams (ankle) and Marlon Humphrey (calf) are also questionable.
The Chargers are relatively healthy. Nick Vannett (concussion) and S JT Woods (illness) are out. Gerald Everett (chest, $4,800) and Jalen Guyton (groin, $2,400) are questionable, hurting an already thin pass catcher room.
We have a tale of two vastly different teams with the Ravens and Chargers. One is a well oiled machine with strong play running and passing, and is buoyed by one of the best defenses in the league. The other has stalled out on offense, has no receiver depth, and has a swiss cheese defense.
Despite an in-game ankle injury Week 11, Lamar Jackson ($12,000) is good to go and is not expected to have any limitations. He shouldn’t have many concerns against a Chargers defense ($3,800) that is ranked 25th or worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to every offensive skill position.
That means identifying the right teammates to pair with Jackson is paramount in roster construction. Flowers has averaged nearly two more targets per game over OBJ, who is second in targets per game with Mark Andrews (ankle) out indefinitely. After them, it’s dealer’s choice with Rashod Bateman ($4,000) the only other Raven with at least 30 targets (31).
The Andrews injury does not give us an easy one-for-one replacement with Isaiah Likely ($5,200) overpriced and underperforming in limited playing time without the Pro Bowl TE. The second-year player only had two targets despite playing 74% of snaps Week 11. It could be a product of not playing a lot with Jackson this season, or a harbinger of future production.
L.A. has their hands full as they trudge through another disappointing season. Justin Herbert ($11,000) continues to be limited by poor play and playcalling. He has seen his yards per attempt rise from 6.78 in 2022 to 7.29 in 2023, but he is averaging fewer yards per game. Herbert’s 5.3% TD rate is salvaging his fantasy season.
If not for Keenan Allen ($11,200) and Austin Ekeler ($10,000), the mediocre Chargers offense would be arguably the worst in the NFL. That’s a credit to them as All-Pro players, but an indictment on L.A. management to build a full roster. The Ravens can decide to pick one of the two (or both) and remove them from the game to make Herbert’s life miserable.
Favorite Sunday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
*Stacks
Captain Lamar Jackson with Gus Edwards and Zay Flowers
It’s realistic to get away with a Ravens stack involving only one other player, but as long as I can get 75% or more of the Ravens rush attack and let others pay down for Keaton Mitchell, I’ll do it.
Captain Gus Edwards with Ravens DST and Keenan Allen
The Chargers will have to pass as long as its defense continues to be a welcoming committee to the end zone. Edwards is the clear red zone back for Baltimore.
Captain Keenan Allen with Justin Herbert and Odell Beckham Jr.
Allen has no fewer than nine targets in every game since a Week 5 bye. That includes 59 over the past four games.
Captain Austin Ekeler with Cameron Dicker and Keaton Mitchell
I don’t mind CPT Ekeler without Herbert, especially if the Ravens pass defense keeps him to one TD pass and a lower passing yard total. Ekeler is a volume CPT option as the most involved player in the Chargers offense.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Alex Erickson ($400)
The veteran could be called up from the practice squad for WR depth. He had a catch for 12 yards Week 11 and could be in a negative game script that could lead to more looks.
TE Charlie Kolar ($600)
It’d be great to see the young TE involved more after only logging one catch and playing 12 of 66 snaps Week 11. Kolar should played despite an illness. If he does, I am interested as a pivot off Likely.
WR Derius Davis ($1,000)
We saw Davis’ versatility Week 9 when he put up 7 DraftKings points because of a punt return. Baltimore doesn’t have a clean sheet on special teams, so there is value with Davis on special teams and as a WR4.
TE Stone Smartt ($1,200)
Smartt had a 1/51/0 line on 3 targets as L.A.’s TE2 Week 11. If Gerald Everett returns, it’s okay to ignore all Chargers TEs.
*Captains
Lamar Jackson ($18,000)
Jackson is in the smashiest of smash spots against one of the worst defenses in the league. Don’t overthink his importance at CPT.
Alex Erickson ($600)
There was only two Chargers that played more snaps than Erickson last week - Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen. As small home underdogs and desperate for stability at WR, Erickson opens roster construction in the few instances he should be rostered at CPT if you enter 20-plus lineups.
Keenan Allen ($16,800)
Allen will have a difficult matchup if it’s Humphrey shadowing him, or S Kyle Hamilton lining up in the slot, but he is the unquestioned target in the offense and can be the optimal CPT on workload.
Zay Flowers ($12,000)
Flowers has yet to eclipse 100 receiving yards in a game, but the rookie is established as the top WR for Jackson and offers a way to save salary in his best matchup of the season.
Week 12 Monday Night Football DFS Showdown: Bears @ Vikings
- Spread: Vikings -3
- Total: 43.5 Points
Both teams enter Week 12’s finale relatively healthy. Chicago will be without D’Onta Foreman (ankle/shin), CB Tyrique Stevenson (ankle), G Larry Borom (illness), and LB Noah Sewell (knee).
Minnesota is expected to be without Justin Jefferson (IR, hamstring). It has a Week 13 bye, so the extra week off is expected to be the end of his absence. CB Akayleb Evans (calf) and DT Khyiris Tonga (knee) are questionable.
Both offenses are fairly condensed. If you’re not Justin Fields ($11,200 on DraftKings), Khalil Herbert ($6,800), D.J. Moore ($10,400), or Cole Kmet ($6,200), you’re probably not getting the ball. In Fields’ Week 11 return, 16 total touches out of 62 went to players not listed above.
That included 18 rushing attempts from Fields, who is playing for his starting QB career. One player who hopes to continue to work with him is Moore, who has performed better with him than Tyson Bagent. Moore was targeted 0.4 more times per game with Bagent but averaged one fewer catch and 32.5 fewer receiving yards.
That equated to 7.6 fewer PPR points per game.
The Vikings Concentrate their workload around Joshua Dobbs ($10,000), Alexander Mattison ($7,400), Ty Chandler ($5,800), Jordan Addison ($8,200), and T.J. Hockenson ($9,000). Their concentrated offense backfired in Denver last week, and it led to seven total touches from their top pass catchers in Addison and Hockenson.
Bears CB Jaylon Johnson isn’t Patrick Surtain II, but he can keep wideouts at bay. Johnson ranks as PFF’s No. 9 corner, so if the Vikes want to keep Addison away from Johnson, they will likely line him up against Kyler Gordon, PFF’s 43rd-ranked CB with Stevenson out. Johnson has followed a specific WR for 38% of his snaps.
That will put Hockenson in the best position among Dobbs’ pass catchers. Chicago ranks 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
In their first matchup this season, the Bears limited the former Lion to six catches for 50 yards and no scores, which sounds great in context. The Vikings struggled in that matchup and probably should’ve lost that game, especially since that was the game where Fields dislocated his thumb.
In three games with Dobbs, Hockenson has 12, 15, and seven targets. He will likely see LB T.J. Edwards or S Jaquan Brisker in coverage.
Favorite Monday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
*Stacks
Captain T.J. Hockenson with Joshua Dobbs and Cole Kmet
Kmet’s variance with Fields under center is known, but if there is one thing that has been made apparent the past month-plus it is that the tight end is the second read. Pairing Kmet with Hockenson gets away from the Moore chalk play.
Captain Justin Fields with D.J. Moore and Ty Chandler
It’s also easy to flip Fields and Moore, but in this case, I want to target the best rusher in this game, as well as the top receiving target out of the Vikings backfield. Chicago is allowing 6.18/63.27/0.45 per game to opposing RBs as receivers.
Captain Joshua Dobbs with Two Pass Catchers
I think this could be a popular build, but I am also hoping that Addison at CPT takes away from Dobbs’ CPT rostership. The journeyman has at least 21 rushing yards in every game since Week 6 and has three games with 40-plus rushing yards before Week 5. The Bears pass rush isn’t great, but Dobbs doesn’t just run when he’s in trouble.
Captain D.J. Moore with Justin Fields and K.J. Osborn
Osborn’s volatility and pricing just below Chandler will keep some DFS players away from him. As Minnesota’s second WR in two-WR sets, he remains valuable, especially if Jaylon Johnson travels with Addison.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Tyler Scott ($1,200)
There isn’t enough to consider below Scott, which is an issue when trying to play the best plays. Scott had an inexcusable drop that led to Chicago’s loss Week 11. It will be interesting to see if Fields trusts the rookie downfield against a beatable secondary.
WR Equanimeous St. Brown ($1,600)
ESB split time with Scott, but St. Brown’s value comes as a blocker. The veteran had a two-catch, 19-yard line last week with Fields back against Detroit.
WR Brandon Powell ($2,000)
Powell moved to WR3 with Osborn back last game, and with Jefferson coming back sooner than later, this may be the last usable game for him. Dobbs did target him more than Osborn Week 11.
TE Josh Oliver ($2,600)
It’s difficult to recommend Minnesota’s TE2, but his 4/46/1 performance in Denver pops if you build for the Bears to limit Hockenson, like the Broncos did.
*Captains
Justin Fields ($16,800)
Fields needs to be trusted by offensive coordinator Luke Getsy if Getsy wants to hang around as an OC beyond this season. Fields got there for fantasy players Week 11 and did so while protecting himself as a runner.
T.J. Hockenson ($13,500)
Hock’s workload and trust from Dobbs will make him popular at CPT. It’s how you construct with him up top that will get you closer to a solo first if the tight end is the optimal captain.
D.J. Moore ($15,600)
Moore’s CPT rostership could be muted by Hockenson’s price and Fields’ uncapped upside, which is why you can slot Chicago’s WR1 atop your builds.
Jordan Addison ($12,300)
Addison may be the best leverage CPT option for this game. If the rookie can line up away from Johnson, then getting him at potentially single-digit rostership can lead to much more unique lineups.
