Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Predictions & Best Bets

Tim HeaneyDirector of Sports Content
Last Updated: Aug 4, 2023

In-your-face online personality Jake Paul will take another turn in his boxing career Saturday against former UFC mainstay Nate Diaz, live from the American Airlines Center in Dallas in a 10-round bout.

Paul is looking to rebound from his first in-ring defeat at the hands of Tommy Fury, WBC heavyweight champion Tyson Fury’s brother, back in February’s Saudi Arabia trip.

Diaz, meanwhile, actually got into a fight at Paul’s October 2022 fight with Anderson Silva, so he’s certainly been part of this circus before.

Moneygrab for Diaz? Maybe, but I’m not going to blindly say that.

Who will win this … well, we can call it a spectacle (I guess)? I’m taking a swing at some Paul vs Diaz best bets for this headlining catchweight event.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Fight Odds

Paul vs Diaz betting lines are current as of Friday, Aug. 4, at 11 a.m. ET, at Caesars Sportsbook.

  • To Win: Jake Paul (-550) • Nate Diaz (+350)
  • Will Paul vs Diaz go the distance? No (-235) • Yes (+180)

The boxing betting market is positioning Diaz, the 15-year UFC veteran and Ultimate Fighter 5 tournament winner, as a significant but not hopeless underdog while showing a more even toss-up for the fight to last the full ten rounds.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Prediction

Paul defeats Diaz (Decision)

Two of Paul’s four knockouts were of the technical variety, and he obviously has a talented right hand. However, Diaz (22-13, 15-11 in UFC) represents the type of fighter who could stand his ground and avoid looking at the lights.

Though he isn’t known for his knockout prowess, the Ultimate Fighter 5 Tournament winner and Brazilian jiu-jitsu 2nd-degree black belt favors jabs and punch accuracy, leaning on his uncanny endurance and defensive striking to take calculated risks.

Diaz has only been knocked out twice, and another jiu-jitsu black belt Tyron Woodley went the distance in one of his two encounters with Paul, so the profile fits for Diaz to have a similar shot at outlasting a premature exit.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Best Bets

Paul defeats Diaz: Points or Decision (+300)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Expect the tenacious Diaz to hang in for the duration while countering Paul’s knockout tendencies, but for the more experienced pugilist to get the nod in the end.

UFC betting would be more strongly in Diaz’s favor, of course, but Paul will chip away at points.

Will Fight Go The Distance? Yes (+180)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Along these lines, I’ll take the more profitable prop that has Diaz surviving with slightly better odds at FanDuel than Caesars.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Tale of the Tape

Here’s how Paul and Diaz match up ahead of their catchweight fight:

Jake PaulNate Diaz
Weight185 lbs184.9 lbs
Boxing W-L6-1N/A
ProfileBoxingJiu-Jitsu (2nd deg black)


Tim Heaney

Before joining The Game Day, Tim spent more than a decade in the fantasy sports and betting industry. Having written for ESPN, RotoWire, and USA TODAY, Tim earned an FSWA award nomination for Best MLB Print Article and multiple Top-5 finishes in fantasy baseball rankings contests. Tim has competed in Tout Wars (1 championship), LABR, Scott Fish Bowl, NFBC/NFFC, TGFBI, and RazzBowl (recent 4th-overall finish out of 200+). Drop him a line about TV, music, craft beer & pro wrestling.

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