Canelo vs GGG Odds & Predictions

Last Updated: Apr 10, 2023

The road to the third, and likely final, bout between Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo" Alvarez and Gennadiy “GGG” Golovkin takes place this Saturday, Sept. 17.

Alvarez, the undisputed Super Middleweight Champion, fought Golovkin, the unified Middleweight Champion, to a controversial draw during their first showdown in 2017 before Canelo captured a majority decision during their 2018 rematch.

The fight will again occur at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, which hosted the first two epic bouts in the series in what should be another action-packed rematch.

Here is a deeper look into the third matchup between Alvarez and Golovkin, one of the most anticipated fights of 2022.

Canelo vs GGG Odds

  • Fight Results (3-Way): Alvarez (-450) | Draw (+2000) | Golovkin (+350)
  • Fight Result (2-Way): Alvarez ( -500) | Golovkin (+333)
  • Canelo Method Of Victory: Alvarez By KO/DQ (+160) | Alvarez By Points (+100)
  • GGG Method of Victory: Golovkin By KO/DQ (+800) | Golovkin On Points (+700)

Alvarez vs Golovkin odds and all stats included in this article are current as of Monday, Sept. 12. All odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Canelo vs GGG 3: Tale of the Tape

Record57-2-2 (39 KOs)42-1-1 (37 KOs)
Reach70.5 inches70 inches

Alvarez enters the fight as a heavy favorite despite his fresh defeat at the hands of Dmitry Bivol in May. However, the Canelo camp may have overlooked Bivol in what was supposed to be a tune-up match, with their focus firmly planted on the Golovkin super fight.

Alvarez turned down the chance for a championship rematch with Bivol for the WBA light heavyweight belt to fight GGG as planned.

Before the loss to Bivol, Alvarez had compiled seven consecutive victories since his last match with Golovkin, including unanimous decisions over Daniel Jacobs and Callum Smith and knockout victories over Rocky Fielding, Sergey Kovalev, and Caleb Plant.

Golovkin, on the other hand, has fought just once since December 2020, defeating Ryota Murata by ninth-round TKO in April. However, the 40-year-old is 4-0 in total since the majority decision loss to Canelo in 2018, which remains the only defeat on Golovkin’s record.

Canelo vs. GGG Predictions

At 40 years of age, Golovkin still poses an immense threat to Canelo due to his hand speed and tremendous punching power. That being said, Alvarez has kept busy since their last rematch and is arguably a better fighter than he was during their previous meeting, despite his recent loss.

It is important to note that Alvarez’s recent defeat was only his second fight at light heavyweight, and the third bout with GGG will be back in his wheelhouse at middleweight. However, due to the intriguing odds in this fight, the action will likely be evenly spread in the outcome.

Many boxing fans will see the overall records and jump at GGG’s odds to hand Alvarez his second consecutive loss, while some may look at Golovkin’s age and think the timing may be right for Canelo to pick up a knockout victory.

After all, this will, in all likelihood, be GGG’s final massive payday. I could see the action being pressed by Golovkin to try and secure the victory, which could leave him in a vulnerable and dangerous position against Canelo. One thing is for sure, GGG still loves to throw a high volume of jabs, which gave Canelo issues during his last fight with Bivol.

The bottom line is that the third bout between Canelo and GGG will be action-packed like the first two fights. However, just like the first two bouts, I believe it will likely end in a decision.

Canelo vs. GGG Pick: Alvarez by Decision

Canelo may have overlooked Bivol in his previous match, but he will be ready for Golovkin. Alvarez has one too many advantages walking into this delayed rematch and should be able to walk away with the decision victory in a very competitive fight.

Each fighter has a solid chin, and while a knockout would be exciting, I would not bet on that outcome.

Canelo vs GGG Best Bets

Canelo Alvarez Defeats Gennadiy Golovkin on Points (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 units

I expect this fight to be competitive and exciting, but I also anticipate that Canelo will take care of business to close out the trilogy with Golovkin. A win by decision is the most likely result, and with the juice for a straight win running at -450, it makes sense to place a Method Of Victory wager.

Canelo vs GGG Card & Schedule

  • Jesse Rodrgiuez (Champion) vs. Israel Gonzalez: WBC Super Flyweight Championship
  • Austin Williams vs. Kieron Conway: WBA ‘International’ Middleweight Championship
  • Diego Pacheco vs. Enrique Collazo: Super Middleweights
  • Ali Akhmedov vs. Gabriel Rosado: Super Middleweights


Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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