Welcome to Conference Championship Weekend.
I’m not sure anything this weekend will live up to the amazing games we saw last weekend, but I’m going to keep my fingers crossed.
With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, the AFC and NFC Championship games are bound to be an absolute brawl between teams that are relatively familiar with each other.
Let’s dig in and find some of the best player prop bets to make for the Conference Championship games.
All NFL gameday odds for NFL Conference Championship player prop bets are current as of Friday, January 28 at 3 p.m. ET.
Bengals vs Chiefs Player Props
Patrick Mahomes: OVER 29.5 Rushing Yards (-105) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Patrick Mahomes took us to the promised land here with one run last week, and I’m going to the well again this week. He’s gone over 30 rushing yards in two of his last three games, including 69 yards on the ground against the Bills in the Divisional round.
Mahomes only rushed twice for 25 yards against the Bengals in Week 17, but he’s been using his legs more of late. And as I wrote last week, he can easily top this total with one scramble.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make for NFL Conference Championships
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Joe Mixon: OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (+100) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Joe Mixon isn’t the first name that comes to most peoples’ minds when they think of a receiving back, but he’s become a big part of the Bengals air attack lately.
Mixon has seen 6.5 targets per game over his last four games, and he’s topped 31 receiving yards in three of those contests, including 40 receiving yards against this same Chiefs team just three weeks ago.
With the Bengals likely having to air the ball out more this Sunday, Mixon is a safe pick here for our NFL bet of the day.
Ja’Marr Chase: OVER 85.5 Receiving Yards (+100) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I don’t love this total as it’s rather high, but the Bengals are going to need Ja’Marr Chase this weekend. He’s seen double-digit targets in three of his last five games, and he’s gone over 85 yards in four of his last five, including a 266-yarder against the Chiefs in Week 17.
While I don’t think he’ll hit 200-plus again this week, Chase is going to see plenty of targets.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford wasn’t able to put up big yardage totals in his first two meetings with San Francisco this season. Will the third time be the charm? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
49ers vs Rams Player Props
Matthew Stafford: UNDER 279.5 Passing Yards (-130) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Matthew Stafford was on fire against the Buccaneers last week in throwing for 366 yards, so he’s a lock for 280-plus, right? Not so fast, my friend…
Stafford has faced the 49ers twice this season (including in Week 18) and he hasn’t thrown for more than 243 yards in either of those games. Does that mean that he’s going to struggle again this week? Not necessarily. But it’s not a promising trend.
He also has to deal with a 49ers pass defense that allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season at 224.4.
Eli Mitchell: UNDER 69.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Eli Mitchell had a really good regular season, but he’s got a lot of things going against him this weekend (just like he did last weekend when we hit on a similar prop).
Mitchell is basically sharing the backfield with Deebo Samuel right now, as Samuel has seen 10 carries per game over the 49ers last two games. And the Rams run defense is very good as they allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season at 78.5 yards per game.
Couple all of that with the fact that the 49ers will likely be playing from behind this week, and I just don’t think Mitchell has a realistic path to 70 yards or more.
Odell Beckham Jr.: OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
We all know it’s the Cooper Kupp show for the Rams, but Odell Beckham Jr. has come on as of late. He’s caught 10 balls over his last two games, averaging 61.5 receiving yards per game over that span.
The 49ers are also in the bottom third in the league in terms of limiting opposing wide receivers, so Beckham should have plenty of opportunities to top this total as the 49ers look to limit Kupp.
Check out more of our NFL Conference Championship Betting Tips
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Top NFL Conference Championship Player Props
Joe Burrow: OVER 288.5 Passing Yards (+100) at Caesars
Bengals vs Chiefs
Wager: 2 Units
If the Bengals win this weekend, it’s going to be because Joe Burrow carried them there. And that means Burrow is going to be throwing a lot.
I don’t think Burrow is going to throw for the 446 yards he threw for in Week 17 against Kansas City, but the Chiefs have given up the ninth-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. And Burrow has gone over 300 yards in three of his last four games.
Deebo Samuel: OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
49ers vs Rams
Wager: 2 Units
Deebo Samuel is a bit dinged up. And he’s been used as a wide receiver/running back hybrid as of late. He also hasn’t been putting up his usual receiving numbers lately.
So why do I like him so much here? Besides the fact that he’s an absolute monster for opposing defenses to deal with, the 49ers are likely to be playing catchup this weekend, and are going to have to throw him the ball more vs. relying on him as a runner.
The Rams also allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to opposing receivers this year, so things are setting up very nicely for Deebo to top this relatively low (for him) total.
Nick’s 2021-22 NFL Playoffs Props Betting Record: 10-9, +2.0 Units
