The AFC Championship Game will feature two powerhouse offenses in the (12-7) Cincinnati Bengals and the (14-5) Kansas City Chiefs.
As with most Chiefs games, I’m expecting a high-flying aerial attack. The only way you can keep up with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes is to chuck the ball downfield.
Enter Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who has no shortage of weapons. I’m expecting the Bengals to keep this game somewhat close, although I do expect they’ll fall short.
I’ve come up with a same game parlay with big plus-money odds that reflects the expected game script.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay (+470)
- Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 (-140)
- Joe Burrow Over 288.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Joe Burrow Over 0.5 Interceptions (-135)
Wager: 0.5 Units
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Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 (-140) at Caesars
This is an alternate spread provided by Caesars, as the actual spread is hanging right at +7 on our NFL gameday odds. But I thoroughly believe the Bengals will cover 8.5 points.
This bet is mostly historical. The Bengals are 5-1 against the spread as road underdogs this season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 14-17 ATS as favorites the last two seasons, and 7-10 ATS as favorites of seven or more during that time.
Despite their dominance with Mahomes under center, the Chiefs simply haven’t been covering over the past few seasons.
While Kansas City is better, expect Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to hang within one possession in this game.
Best Bet: Joe Burrow Over 288.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
If the Bengals are to hang around in this game, it’ll be on the back of Burrow.
The Bengals may want to go run-heavy to try and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands, but Cincinnati has a poor run game. The Bengals were 22nd in rush EPA per play and 22nd in rush Success Rate, averaging less than four yards per carry in the process.
- Read more of our NFL Conference Championship Parlays
The Bengals will have to do what Josh Allen and the Bills did — throw the ball all over the field. Which Burrow is entirely capable of doing.
He’s gone Over 288.5 passing yards in just seven of his 18 starts this season, but he’s also thrown for 300+ yards in five of his last seven games. That includes 446 yards against these same Chiefs in Week 18.
Plus, Tyrann Mathieu is still questionable for this game. That takes away one of the better safeties in the NFL and will open up the field for Burrow even more.
To cover an 8.5-point spread against Kansas City, Burrow will have to go Over this number.
Check out more of our Bengals vs Chiefs Predictions
Best Bet: Joe Burrow Over 0.5 Interceptions (-135)
Despite their best efforts, the Bengals are not going to complete the comeback in this game.
Burrow has been magnificent and has thrown just one interception in his last six games. However, he’ll likely be playing from behind and pushing in this game.
With how many passes he’ll be required to throw, he’s more than likely going to let one slip away. Especially considering that he’ll be under pressure all day. The Bengals offensive line is a mess, which is why he was sacked nine times in the Divisional round.
Burrow’s Turnover Worthy Play percentage almost tripled when under pressure (3.6%) compared to when he was in a clean pocket (1.3%).
I’m expecting a few of those plays, and I’m also expecting the Chiefs to take advantage.
