In my Same Game Parlay article about the Raiders vs Bengals matchup, I laid out how I think this game script will play out between these two teams.
At home, the Bengals should take this game handily and give the city of Cincinnati their first playoff win in decades.
Let’s take a look at what would factor into a Bengals win at home on Saturday.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 4:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 13.
Raiders vs Bengals Prop Bets: NFL Wild Card Prop Betting Picks
Bet Boost: Joe Mixon 50+ Rushing Yards & to Score a TD (+100) at Fox Bet
Wager: 1.25 Units
Joe Mixon loves playing the Raiders. In three career games against Las Vegas, he has averaged 112.7 rushing yards per contest and scored five times.
Mixon has recorded at least 50 rushing yards in 12 of his 17 regular season games this year. He hit that mark in nine of the ten Bengals wins this season, only failing to do so in Week 17’s shootout victory over the Chiefs.
Hitting his yardage total is the safe part of this bet — Caesars Sportsbook has his rushing prop set at 76.5 yards. The more pressing matter is if Mixon will find the end zone.
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Mixon has scored just twice in the past four games, recording a rushing and receiving touchdown in Week 16’s win over Baltimore. Starting right tackle Riley Reiff was placed on injured reserve after Week 12, so a weaker offensive line could be to blame for Mixon’s recent decline in scoring.
Regardless of the offensive line, the Bengals should lean on Mixon heavily. The weather on Saturday could potentially affect the passing game, as the temperature will drop into the low 20s during the game with a chance of snow.
Mixon may not see the 30 carries he saw against the Raiders in Week 11, but he’ll be plenty busy.
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Josh Jacobs Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Caesars
Wager: 1.5 Units
Jacobs reached 60 rushing yards just one time in the seven games when the Raiders lost this year. Heading into Paul Brown Stadium as road underdogs, I think the Raiders will be leaning more on Derek Carr to keep them in this game.
Cincinnati has allowed a modest 4.3 yards per carry to opponents this year, but are fifth in the league in terms of total rushing yards allowed. To beat the Bengals, teams have to be able to keep up with their offense.
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These teams quickly find that trying to get past defensive tackle DJ Reader is no easy task, who is proving to be worth every penny of the deal the Bengals gave him before the 2020 season. His 80.9 overall grade on PFF is evidence of that.
The Bengals have sustained multiple injuries to an already weak linebacker unit. Their defensive line is strong enough to make up for the weaknesses behind them. Jacobs is in for some tough sledding in Cincinnati.
Check out more of our Raiders vs Bengals Predictions
Darren Waller Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-117) at TwinSpires
Wager: 1 Unit
What’s left of the Bengals linebackers unit has struggled to contain elite tight ends. Travis Kelce was held in check for 25 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in Week 17, but, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Darren Waller all had games this year where they torched Cincinnati for over 115 receiving yards.
I’m only placing one unit on this bet due to Waller’s performance since returning from a knee injury that kept him out for five games. In his only game since his return, Waller saw nine passes thrown his way but only caught two of them.
At full strength, Waller is the reason why the Raiders have a chance against Cincinnati. He picked up the majority of his 117 yards against the Bengals in Week 11 running seam routes straight up the middle of the field. If Carr can get him the ball, look out — he is as tough as anybody to stop in open space.
Cincinnati Bengals 1st Half Spread -3 (-120) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
Week 11’s game between the Raiders and the Bengals was much closer than the final score of 32-13 indicates. Las Vegas scored a touchdown with 11:42 left in the fourth quarter to make it a 16-13 game.
The Bengals dominated the rest of the way.
Cincinnati is a significantly different team than they were in Week 11 — a much stronger team. They dropped games to the Chargers and the 49ers a couple weeks later, but have continued to develop into a team that’s capable of taking down the Chiefs.
Tee Higgins bouncing back from injury is a huge part of that. Improved play from their top three cornerbacks is another massive boost. Head coach Zac Taylor is being discussed as a Coach of the Year candidate.
Cincinnati won four games last year. They have a legitimate shot to win four playoff games this year. First things first though, they have to get past round one.
I think they come out firing early, using their elite playmakers on offense to head into halftime with a touchdown lead over the Raiders, making this our NFL bet of the day.
