The Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in one of the AFC’s wild-card games this Sunday.
The Steelers will need their defense to step up for a third-straight week, after only allowing 27 combined points the last two weeks. These two teams met just three weeks ago, and the game was over by halftime as the Chiefs cruised to a 36-10 win.
Pittsburgh was able to get into the playoffs by beating Baltimore, and having Jacksonville beat Indianapolis. T.J. Watt tied Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record with 22.5 against the Ravens and he figures to be a force yet again.
Ben Roethlisberger was also able to lead another game-winning drive as he’s now second all-time in NFL history behind Drew Brees and Tom Brady (53).
On the Chiefs’ side, they come in red hot after a poor 3-4 start. They’ve won nine of their last 10 games and look like the team to beat in the conference again, despite being the No. 2 seed.
Let’s dive in to find the best Steelers vs Chiefs prop bets for this weekend’s playoff clash.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 3 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 13.
Steelers vs Chiefs Prop Bets: AFC Wild Card Prop Betting Picks
Patrick Mahomes: OVER 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+155) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Patrick Mahomes has had over two passing touchdowns in close to half of the Chiefs games this season and I like him to get it here as well. When these two teams played three weeks ago, the Steelers had no answer for him.
It didn’t matter whether they blitzed or sat back against Mahomes, he still picked them apart. He finished with 258 yards and three touchdowns while only having seven incompletions.
It’s going to be even harder to slow Mahomes down now that Travis Kelce will be available. He’s one of the best tight ends in football and the Steelers have a history in the playoffs of not doing well against tight ends.
- Read our full NFL Wild Card Prop Bets
Mike Tomlin will likely have some adjustments ready for Mahomes, but at the end of the day, I feel like he is going to have a great outing, as he’s done both times he’s played the Steelers.
In two career meetings against Pittsburgh, Mahomes has 584 yards with nine (!) touchdowns and no interceptions.
Take the Over here for our NFL bet of the day.
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Pat Freiermuth: OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Having Freiermuth back for this game will do wonders for the Steelers. Will it be enough for them to win? It’s unlikely. But Freiermuth has developed into one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the NFL this season.
He’s been Roethlisberger’s security blanket, just as Heath Miller was for a number of before he retired. He has over 30 receiving yards in nine games this season and made a couple of clutch catches against the Ravens last Sunday.
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One of them came on a third-and-nine in overtime after it looked like he was covered, but he was able to get a first down out of it.
It’s rare that he drops a pass and he’s going to get a good chunk of looks now that he’s healthy for this matchup. He had to miss the contest three weeks ago due to a concussion.
Look for him to make some big-time catches and get some YAC out of them to break 30 yards.
Check out more of our Steelers vs Chiefs Predictions
Chris Boswell: OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made (+120) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Kickers do have to get love in some of these games, especially when it comes to one of the best in the NFL. Outside of Justin Tucker, there hasn’t been a better kicker in the league this season than Boswell.
He made 36-of-40 field goals during the regular season and in 12 of the Steelers’ 17 games, he made at least two.
I know in the last game against the Chiefs he only made one of two, but that was an outlier, not the norm.
Take Boswell to make at least two kicks in this one as the Steelers offense stalls quite often once they’re down in the red zone.