This weekend’s AFC Wild Card slate features the third showdown between the Buffalo Bills (11-6) and New England Patriots (10-7) in the last six weeks.
The Patriots won the first meeting in Buffalo in Week 13 as both teams battled gale-force winds, but the Bills got their revenge with a win in Foxborough during Week 16.
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has hit a bit of a rookie wall over the team’s last four games in which they are 1-3. While Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels may have some tricks up their sleeve to get Jones back on track, New England will have to rely on its running game against a Buffalo defense that allowed the fewest points per game this season.
On the other side of the field, Bills quarterback Josh Allen has a full repertoire of receivers at his disposal against a Patriots defense that allowed the second-fewest points per game this season.
With single-digit temperatures forecasted in Buffalo this weekend, this game will likely be one of the coldest playoff games ever played.
Let’s dig in to find the best Patriots vs Bills prop bets for this weekend’s AFC Wild Card battle.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 2:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 13.
Patriots vs Bills Prop Bets: NFL Wild Card Weekend Prop Betting Picks
Mac Jones: OVER 200.5 Passing Yards (+105) at Caesars
As I mentioned, Jones struggled a bit towards the end of the season. However, he’s still thrown for 227 or more yards in three of his past four games.
The only game during that stretch where he didn’t reach that mark? Week 16 against the Bills, when he managed just 145 yards through the air on 14-of-32 passing.
While Jones has his work cut out for him against Buffalo’s rugged defense, the Patriots are going to need to throw the ball as they’ll likely be playing from behind. He may not surpass it by much, but I like Jones to top this relatively low total for the 13th time this season.
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Josh Allen: OVER 242.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Allen has only eclipsed this total once in his last four games, but that came against New England during Week 16.
While the Patriots have a very good defense, they weren’t as strong during the second half of the season and have struggled against MVP-caliber quarterbacks such as Allen.
At home with his full arsenal of receivers, Allen should be able to hit this total for the 12th time this season and cash our NFL bet of the day.
Mac Jones: OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-140) at Caesars
I’ve mentioned Jones hitting the rookie wall a couple of times already, and no stat embodies that more than the fact that he’s thrown five interceptions over his last four games, including two against the Bills during Week 16.
Buffalo has an opportunistic defense that tied for third in the NFL with 19 interceptions this season. With Jones likely having to throw a good amount for New England to keep pace, there should be plenty of opportunities for the Bills to pick off at least one of his passes, especially with the weather making throwing and catching more difficult.
Check out more of our Patriots vs Bills Predictions
Damien Harris: OVER 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-105) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
While the game flow will likely dictate the Patriots needing to throw quite a bit, they’re still a run-first team at their core. And even though Rhamondre Stevenson has looked great during the second half, Damien Harris is still New England’s lead back.
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Harris has been dealing with injuries over the past few weeks, but he’s seemingly healthy heading into this game and will get plenty of usage as the Patriots attempt to control time of possession. I’m dropping my confidence down to a half-unit as Stevenson could cut into his workload, but I still think Harris will see plenty of volume.
Nick Folk: OVER 6.5 Kicking Points (+105) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
A kicker prop!
Nick Folk has been one of the most consistent kickers in the league this season, and he’s playing on a team that’s atrocious in the red zone.
Folk’s stats over the past four games wouldn’t lead us to believe that he’s going to easily top this total, but his season-long stats do.
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Doing the math here, we really only need two field goals and an extra point. That’s very much within Folk’s reach as the Patriots are likely to struggle in the red zone against a tough Bills defense.