Patriots vs Bills NFL Playoff Prop Bets | Props For Josh Allen, Mac Jones & More

This weekend’s AFC Wild Card slate features the third showdown between the Buffalo Bills (11-6) and New England Patriots (10-7) in the last six weeks.

The Patriots won the first meeting in Buffalo in Week 13 as both teams battled gale-force winds, but the Bills got their revenge with a win in Foxborough during Week 16.

Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has hit a bit of a rookie wall over the team’s last four games in which they are 1-3. While Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels may have some tricks up their sleeve to get Jones back on track, New England will have to rely on its running game against a Buffalo defense that allowed the fewest points per game this season.

On the other side of the field, Bills quarterback Josh Allen has a full repertoire of receivers at his disposal against a Patriots defense that allowed the second-fewest points per game this season.

With single-digit temperatures forecasted in Buffalo this weekend, this game will likely be one of the coldest playoff games ever played.

Let’s dig in to find the best Patriots vs Bills prop bets for this weekend’s AFC Wild Card battle.

Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 2:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 13.

Patriots vs Bills Prop Bets: NFL Wild Card Weekend Prop Betting Picks

Mac Jones: OVER 200.5 Passing Yards (+105) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

As I mentioned, Jones struggled a bit towards the end of the season. However, he’s still thrown for 227 or more yards in three of his past four games.

The only game during that stretch where he didn’t reach that mark? Week 16 against the Bills, when he managed just 145 yards through the air on 14-of-32 passing.

While Jones has his work cut out for him against Buffalo’s rugged defense, the Patriots are going to need to throw the ball as they’ll likely be playing from behind. He may not surpass it by much, but I like Jones to top this relatively low total for the 13th time this season.

Player Prop

+105

Mac Jones: OVER 200.5 Passing Yards @ Bills

NE @ BUF | 01/15, 8:15 PM ET

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Josh Allen: OVER 242.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Allen has only eclipsed this total once in his last four games, but that came against New England during Week 16.

While the Patriots have a very good defense, they weren’t as strong during the second half of the season and have struggled against MVP-caliber quarterbacks such as Allen.

At home with his full arsenal of receivers, Allen should be able to hit this total for the 12th time this season and cash our NFL bet of the day.

Player Prop

-115

Josh Allen: OVER 242.5 Passing Yards vs Patriots

NE @ BUF | 01/15, 8:15 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $37

Mac Jones New England Patriots QB

How will New England Patriots QB Mac Jones fare in his 1st career playoff game against the Buffalo Bills during Wild Card Weekend? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Mac Jones: OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-140) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

I’ve mentioned Jones hitting the rookie wall a couple of times already, and no stat embodies that more than the fact that he’s thrown five interceptions over his last four games, including two against the Bills during Week 16.

Buffalo has an opportunistic defense that tied for third in the NFL with 19 interceptions this season. With Jones likely having to throw a good amount for New England to keep pace, there should be plenty of opportunities for the Bills to pick off at least one of his passes, especially with the weather making throwing and catching more difficult.

Player Prop

-140

Mac Jones: OVER 0.5 Interceptions @ Bills

NE @ BUF | 01/15, 8:15 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $34


Check out more of our Patriots vs Bills Predictions


Damien Harris: OVER 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-105) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

While the game flow will likely dictate the Patriots needing to throw quite a bit, they’re still a run-first team at their core. And even though Rhamondre Stevenson has looked great during the second half, Damien Harris is still New England’s lead back.

Harris has been dealing with injuries over the past few weeks, but he’s seemingly healthy heading into this game and will get plenty of usage as the Patriots attempt to control time of possession. I’m dropping my confidence down to a half-unit as Stevenson could cut into his workload, but I still think Harris will see plenty of volume.

Player Prop

-105

Damien Harris: OVER 14.5 Rushing Attempts @ Bills

NE @ BUF | 01/15, 8:15 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $39

Nick Folk: OVER 6.5 Kicking Points (+105) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

A kicker prop!

Nick Folk has been one of the most consistent kickers in the league this season, and he’s playing on a team that’s atrocious in the red zone.

Folk’s stats over the past four games wouldn’t lead us to believe that he’s going to easily top this total, but his season-long stats do.

Doing the math here, we really only need two field goals and an extra point. That’s very much within Folk’s reach as the Patriots are likely to struggle in the red zone against a tough Bills defense.

Player Prop

+105

Nick Folk: OVER 6.5 Kicking Points @ Bills

NE @ BUF | 01/15, 8:15 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $41

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page