For the first time in the modern era, the Buffalo Bills (11-6) and the New England (10-7) Patriots will meet in the playoffs.
By virtue of winning the AFC East, the Bills will host the Patriots for the second time in just over a month. The first meeting didn’t go so well for the Bills, as they lost a close game in which the Patriots only threw the ball three times due to gale force winds.
However, the Bills won the rematch three weeks later in Foxborough, so they’ll be feeling good about the rubber match on Saturday.
Neither team is dealing with any major injury uncertainty at the moment, so we’ll see two mostly-healthy rosters facing off in Buffalo this weekend. The Bills come into this one having won their last four games, while the Patriots are limping into the playoffs, having lost three of their last four.
Let’s dive into this AFC East-themed Wild Card battle between the AFC’s 3rd and 6th seeded teams and find some same game parlay value.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, January 13, and are courtesy of Caesars.
Patriots vs. Bills Same Game Parlay
Let’s take a look at the best options for same game parlays in this New England vs. Buffalo matchup, courtesy of Caesars.
- Patriots +4 (-110)
- Over 44 Total Points (-110)
Best Bet: Patriots +4 (-110) at Caesars
The Patriots won the teams’ first matchup in Week 13 by a score of 14-10. The Bills got vengeance in Week 16 with a 33-21 win on the road. While that second score looks like a lopsided game, it was still a one-possession game with three minutes left in the game.
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These two teams and two coaches know each other extremely well, as Bill Belichick and Sean McDermott’s squads have had some battles over the past few years. And Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll knows the Patriots inside and out after serving on Belichick’s staff not that long ago.
Two matchups in the last six weeks have only added to that familiarity. Why does familiarity matter? It’s going to be hard for one side to completely get the better of the other and turn this into a blowout.
The Bills have the more talented team, but I don’t think there’s a soul alive who would bet against Bill Belichick having an ace game-plan up his sleeve. This is going to be a close game one way or the other.
I’d be surprised if New England wins this week, but the Patriots have played the Bills close this year, and I’m not going to bet against Belichick keeping it close again this weekend.
Check out more of our Patriots vs Bills Predictions
Best Bet: Over 44 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Saturday night, the Buffalo area is forecasted for single-digit and sub-zero windchill weather. However, there is not another wind storm in the forecast (or any other types of storms, for that matter).
While rain, wind, and snow tend to keep scores low, cold weather does not. There won’t be the same incentive as the Week 13 wind battle to keep the ball on the ground, so we should see both quarterbacks upwards of 25 attempts this week. And that should translate into scoring.
- Check out our NFL Wild Card Best Bets.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Bills were the third-highest scoring team in the NFL during the regular season at 28.3 points per game, while the Patriots came in sixth at 27.2.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills defense was first in limiting opponents to 17 points per game, while the Patriots came in second at 17.2 points per game.
So both offenses can score, and both can stop opposing offenses. What does that mean? It could mean a lot of things, but we’re at least going to see some points from these high-powered offenses. And 44 is a relatively low total as our NFL bet of the day.
Final Odds: +264
Wager: 2 Units