Falcons vs Bills Predictions Week 17 | NFL Pick of the Day

The 2021 NFL regular season is nearing an end as teams continue to vie for playoff positioning. The Buffalo Bills haven’t clinched a playoff berth just yet, but their latest win over the New England Patriots gives them the tie-breaker in the AFC East division lead.

The Bills have their sights set on winning the AFC East two years in a row for the first time since 1990-1991, the last two years they advanced to the Super Bowl. While Buffalo is likely going to be playing in the postseason, they’ll be squaring off with an Atlanta Falcons team that is desperately fighting for one of the final playoff spots in the NFC.

Atlanta is currently 7-8 and they’ll likely need to win their final two games to earn their chance to advance to the postseason. That will be easier said than done, as the Falcons will face the Bills and the New Orleans Saints to conclude the regular season.

Continue reading below to see my Falcons vs Bills predictions, along with my favorite bets.

Skyler Carlin 2021 NFL Betting Record: 6-16-0

Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 12 p.m. EST on Thursday, December 30.


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Falcons vs Bills Prediction

It’s been tough to get a gauge on how good the Bills are this season as they’ve failed to be consistent for multiple stretches. We all know how talented Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense is, but there are certain moments where they look out of sorts, which could cost them in the playoffs.

Luckily for the Bills — a team that relies on their aerial attack — they get to take on the No. 30-ranked defense in pass DVOA this week in the Falcons. Atlanta also sports the No. 26-ranked defense in rush DVOA, so Buffalo could have some success running the ball as well.

This past week, the Falcons were able to squeak out a narrow win over the Detroit Lions, proving that no opponent has been easy for them this season. As a matter of fact, the average margin of victory for Atlanta in their seven wins is only 4.7 points.

Buffalo shouldn’t have much trouble airing it out on Atlanta’s weak pass defense this week as they look to clinch a playoff spot. And with the Falcons having to play outside of a dome and potentially in less-than-ideal weather, there’s a good chance we could see a lopsided game on Sunday between the Falcons and the Bills.

Prediction: Bills 34, Falcons 13


Falcons vs Bills Best Bets

Best Bet: Bills -14.5 (-108) at TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

Whenever you have a spread that exceeds two touchdowns, it’s sometimes best to side with the underdog. However, it’s hard to envision a situation where the Falcons are able to keep this week’s matchup with the Bills close in a tough environment.

Atlanta does have an impressive 5-3 record against the spread as the road team, and Buffalo is only 3-3-1 ATS at home thus far. That being said, the Bills possess a 3-1 record ATS when favored by double-digits over their opponents this season.

On top of that, Buffalo has covered the spread in nine of their last 10 matchups with teams from the NFC. There’s also the fact that Atlanta has failed to cover in five of their last seven games.

Even though the spread is a tough one to swallow, I expect the Bills to handle business at home, giving them their ninth win by at least 15 points this season.

spread

-108

Bills Cover -14.5 Spread vs Falcons

ATL @ BUF | 01/02, 1:00 PM ET

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Best Bet: Over 44 Total Points (-113) at TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

Sometimes it can be risky to bet on the Over in games with lopsided spreads, but with the Bills, they’re always capable of nearly hitting the Over themselves. Buffalo’s offense is third in the NFL with 28.5 points per game, while Atlanta’s offense is the eighth-lowest scoring offense in the league with only 18.5 points per game.

So, why do I believe the Falcons and the Bills will hit the Over of 44.5 points on Sunday? In the nine wins that the Bills have earned this season, they’ve scored 30+ points in eight of them.

And with the Falcons having to play in cold weather and outside of a dome, Matt Ryan and the offense could be prone to making more mistakes in Week 17. Also, the Bills defense is third in the NFL in takeaways with 29, so there could be more possessions in store for Allen and Buffalo’s offense.

While the Under has hit in six of the last seven games for the Falcons, the Over has been achieved in five of the last seven games for the Bills. Also, the total has gone Over in six of the last eight meetings between the Falcons and the Bills.

over-under

-113

Falcons @ Bills: OVER 44 Points

ATL @ BUF | 01/02, 1:00 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $38

Thank you for reading our Falcons vs Bills Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 17 Parlay Picks.

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NFL Betting News

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    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

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  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

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